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Tuesday March 11, 2014 - 05:55:27 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: BOJ defers on further easing ahead of sales tax increase, raises assessment on CapEx and Output, cuts Exports - Source

- (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) POLICY STATEMENT: REITERATES TO INCREASE MONETARY BASE AT ANNUAL PACE OF 60-70T (AS EXPECTED); Maintains overall economic assessment unchanged (7th consecutive meeting); Raises CapEx and Industrial Production, Cuts Exports assessment - (JP) JAPAN FEB MONEY STOCK M2 Y/Y: 4.0% (5-month low) V 4.4%E; M3 Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.5%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 7 V 9 PRIOR; BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 0 V 5 PRIOR - (AU) Australia ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index for March fell to 113.4 from 116.0 in February - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB RETAIL CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.9% V 0.9%E; TOTAL CARD SPENDING M/M: +0.6% V -0.1% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB TRUCKOMETER HEAVY: 2.3% V 0.0% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB HOUSE PRICE INDEX: 3,835 V 3,756 PRIOR; HOUSE SALES Y/Y: -7.6% V -4.3% PRIOR - (PH) PHILIPPINES JAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.5% V 6.5% PRIOR - (PH) PHILIPPINES JAN EXPORTS Y/Y: 9.3% V 10.6%E - (UK) UK FEB BRC SALES LFL Y/Y: -1.0% V +1.8%E (1st decline in 10 months) ***Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.7%, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Mar S&P500 flat at 1,876, Apr gold +0.1% at $1,342, Apr crude oil flat at $101.16/brl ***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - In spite of the expected headwinds from higher sales tax starting Apr 1st and disappointing Q4 final GDP data overnight, Bank of Japan did not announce or even hint it would consider expanding its quantitative easing program to keep the sputtering Abenomics program on solid footing. While the BOJ acknowledged exports have "leveled off", policymakers raised assessment for industrial output and CapEx. The latter was particularly curious, as Q4 final GDP revision saw the biggest downward adjustment in the corporate investment component. Outside of those changes, BOJ left its overall assessment of economy unchanged for the 7th month and also reiterated expectations for CPI (ex sales tax impact) to remain around 1.25% for some time. - Japan econ min Amari sought to soothe concerns after the downward Q4 GDP adjustments this week, noting investors should avoid turning pessimistic on the economy. Separately, a survey in local media predicted some 55% of Japan shoppers will reduce spending levels once the sales tax hike goes into effect. - PBoC Gov Zhou headlined an active line-up of speakers at the National People's Congress news conference. Zhou hinted interest rate may be pushed higher amid more prevalent "market forces", with rate liberalization coming in 1-2 years. Zhou also discussed increasing internationalization of yuan and a hands-off approach by the PBoC, even as the central bank continued to drive down the value with another 3-month low setting. Separately, CSRC chairman said China will continue to expand (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) QFII quota this year, and the head of FX regulator SAFE Yi Gang pointed to increased risks in cross-border capital flows. - In other notable China press headlines, China State Information Center (SIC) think tank forecasted Q1 GDP slowing to 7.5% from 7.7% in Q4. - Former Bank of China President / NPC Financial and Economic Affairs Committee member Li Lihui said China should allow some high-yield investment products to default, with the total size of China shadow banking having risen to CNY20T. - Australia NAB business confidence slumped in February after a surprise strong multi-month highs gave a jolt to the Aussie dollar last month. NAB chief economist said markets got "too excited" about the likelihood of economic indicators turning, but improvement is yet to be reflected in the labor market. Moreover, NAB sees domestic demand remaining "flat" and mining investment still "in retreat." ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY100B in 28-day repos (7th consecutive drain) - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$200M in 4.0% 2020 indexed Bonds; avg yield: 1.2667%; bid-to-cover: 4.51x - SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 7.5 tonnes to 812.7 tonnes (highest since 814.1 on Dec 20th) - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1327 v 6.1312 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Dec 3rd) - AUD and JPY currencies were the most volatile among the majors in the wake of a decline in Australia NAB figures and a less dovish than expected BOJ. AUD/USD fell some 25pips below $0.9010 after NAB confidence release but pared most of those losses to enter the afternoon session little changed around $0.9025. USD/JPY fell over 15pips after the BOJ statement portending diminished likelihood of additional easing in April but remained supported above 103.20. AUD/JPY cross traded in a 40pip range above the 93 handle, while EUR/USD steadily retreated from US session highs above $1.39 to $1.3865 level, down about 15pips in the Asian hours. ***Equities*** US markets: - LJPC: Reports positive phase II results: Top-line results from clinical trial of GCS-100 in Chronic Kidney Disease; +62.4% afterhours - PME: Reports Q4 $0.51 v $0.44 y/y, R$61M v $28.4M y/y; +16.7% afterhours - FCEL: Reports Q1 -$0.04 adj v -$0.04e, R$44.4M v $42.4Me; +7.9% afterhours - PLOW: Reports Q4 $0.38 v $0.25e, R$73M v $58.8Me; raises dividend 2%; +5.4% afterhours - HIL: Reports Q4 -$0.03 v $0.02e, R$145M v $134Me; +4.7% afterhours - PWRD: Reports Q4 $0.54 v $0.44e, R$151M v $145Me; +4.3% afterhours - DD: Expects Q1 results will be "challenged" by severe weather and business disruptions in the Ukraine, but affirms FY14 $4.20-$4.45 v $4.33e - filing; -0.9% afterhours - CASY: Reports Q4 $0.38 v $0.49e, R$1.79B v $1.80Be; -2.4% afterhours - URBN: Reports Q4 $0.59 v $0.55e, R$905.9M v $911Me; -2.7% afterhours - NES: Reports Q4 -$0.42 v -$0.47e, R$154.5M v $148Me; -4.7% afterhours Notable movers by sector: - Consumer staples: Anhui Golden Seed Winery 600199.CN -0.4% (FY13 results) - Financials: China Vanke 000002.CN +5.5% (Pres Yu bought 1M shares); FamilyMart 8028.JP -1.1%, Zensho Holdings 7550.JP -1.5% (to raises monthly avg base pay) - Materials: Lynas Corp LYC.AU -8.5% (H1 results); Mongolian Mining Corp 975.HK -9.0% (FY13 results); Newcrest Mining NCM.AU -1.2% (analyst actions); Drillsearch DLS.AU +0.7% (on track to achieve FY14 guidance) - Energy: Sinovel Wind Group 601558.CN -1.9% (speculations on possible debt trouble) - Industrials: Hebei Huijin Electromechanical 300368.CN +10.0% (special div proposal); Taiheiyo Cement 5233.JP +5.0% (Sees profitability in FY14/15) - Healthcare: Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group 460.HK +6.4% (FY13 results) - Telecom: Coolpad Group 2369.HK +6.8% (to hold conference on strategic alliance) - Source


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