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Thursday March 13, 2014 - 15:47:22 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Poor China Data Once Again Undermines Markets US Market Update: Poor China Data Once Again Undermines Markets
Thu, 13 Mar 2014 11:22 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Mining Production M/M: -1.1% v +6.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 5.1%e; Gold Production Y/Y: -6.3% v +12.8% prior
- (GR) Greece Q4 Unemployment Rate: 27.5% v 27.0% prior
- (IE) Ireland Feb CPI M/M: -0.2% v +0.8%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (IE) Ireland Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v +0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.2%e
- (IE) Ireland Q4 GDP Q/Q: -2.3% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v +2.5%e
- (IE) Ireland Q4 Current Account: 3.3B v 3.4B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 1.9%e
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Mar 7th: $494.6B v $493.3B prior
- (EU) OECD Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.6% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan Retail Sales M/M: +0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 4.8%e; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.5% v 5.3%e
- (US) Feb Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 315K v 330Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.855M v 2.90Me
- (US) Feb Import Price Index M/M: 0.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.9%e
- (CA) Canada Q4 Capacity Utilization Rate: 82.0% v 82.2%e
- (CA) Canada Jan New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.3%e
- (US) Jan Business Inventories: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (MX) Mexico Jan Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 2.5% v 0.4%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -195 bcf v -190 to -200 bcf expected

- Another round of poor Chinese data slammed Asian markets overnight. China Feb industrial output and retail sales grew less than expected. European equities and US futures weathered the data well as analysts chalked the misses up to the Chinese New Year, however after the open of cash trading both US and European indices have dumped into the red. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.20%, the S&P500 is down 0.18% and the Nasdaq is down 0.24%.

- The February retail sales rose a bit more than expected, however the negative back-month revisions to the January and December data more than offset the front-month beat. On the jobs front, initial and continuing jobless claims both fell more than expected, with initial claims right at three-month lows. Import prices were up more than expected in February, but declined on a year-on-year basis. In reaction to this morning's data, Goldman Sachs reduced its Q1 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to +1.5%. Not so long ago, this forecast was at +3.0%.

- Earlier this morning, EUR/USD tested above 1.3960 for fresh two-year highs, although the US data out later in the AM helped strengthen the greenback. The yen remains firmer, however, with USD/JPY around two-week lows of 102.32. Crude has stabilized around $98 after dropping sharply earlier in the week. Copper prices were further undermined after the weak Chinese data, putting them at 3.5-year lows. Copper is now

- Amazon has raised the price of its Prime subscription membership for the first time since introducing the popular program a decade ago. The annual membership fee was hiked $20 to $99 a year. Back on January 30th, Amazon's CFO said the company was considering plans to increase the price of Amazon Prime by $20-40/yr. Note also that a Bizrate Insights survey found almost 46% of Prime members think the current $79 price is too high and would quit if it rose by $10-20/yr.

- Retail names reporting December quarter results over the last several weeks have typically blamed weather and suffered from middling to terrible results. Not Williams-Sonoma, whose earnings and revenue topped expectations on moderate growth, while sales comps rose more than 10%. The firm's FY14 revenue guidance was strong and it raised its dividend. Shares are up 9.3% in the early going.

- Herbalife is down another 5% or so this morning after falling 10% during yesterday's session in the wake of receiving a Civil Investigative Demand (CID) from the Federal Trade Commission. Reports out last night suggested the announcement took Herbalife executives by surprise, and seem to feel that remedies could range anywhere from a slap on the wrist to a cease and desist order.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:45 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy at Ecommerce Europe
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Feb International Reserves (ISK): No est v 503B prior
- 12:30 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus
- 13:00 (EU) ECB chief Draghi in Vienna
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Floating-rate 2020
- 14:00 (US) Treasury Sec Lew testifies before House budget committee
- 14:00 (US) Feb Monthly Budget Statement: -$195.0Be v -$203.5B prior
- 17:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Overnight Rate Target by 25bps to 4.00%
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.00%
- 19:50 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) February 17-18 meeting minutes




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