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Friday March 14, 2014 - 10:12:51 GMT
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(EU) TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: China slowdown concerns and Sunday vote in Crimea keep risk aversion sentiment strong


Fri, 14 Mar 2014 5:27 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (GR) Greece Parliament approves controversial bill (less an article) that gets rid of 21 state organizations as part of troika demands - Greek press
- (EU) ECB's Knot (Netherlands): Would be wise to eventually have joint Euro bonds and shared budget buffers - Dutch press
- (FR) VIV.FR: France Industry Min Montebourg: Vivendi prefers Numbericable bid for SFR; Altice bid for SFR would create a tax problem
- (HK) UBS: Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) finds evidence of misconduct in UBS Hibor rate submission
- (JP) Japan PM Abe advisor Hamada: BoJ should ease as soon as May if sales tax raise hurts domestic economy; BoJ can double pace of bond accommodation to 100T/year if needed
- (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) 4Q Public Sector Debt Data: Debt to GDP at 93.9% (record level)

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points: Equities extend the losses seen on Thursday's session amid concerns related to Ukraine and China, DAX continues to underperform and has lost over 3% this week, Traders cautious ahead of weekend event risk (Crimea to hold referendum on Sunday, March 16th), Stoxx50 volatility index rises over 3%, while Russian equities decline over 4% as the country's credit default swaps (CDS) widen.

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.3% at 6,533, DAX -0.7% at 8,950, CAC-40 -0.7% at 4,221, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 9,894, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 20,539, SMI -0.5% at 8,165, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,841]

***By Sector***
- Industrials [Gurit GUR.CH -5% (FY profits declined), Heidelberg Cement HEI.DE -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Banca Monte Paschi BMPS.IT +4% (renewed M&A speculation)]
- Consumer Discretionary [SAS SAS.SE -5% (Q1 loss widened), Pandora PNDORA.DK -3% (share placement)]
- Stoxx50 [Consumer Cyclical -1%, Industrials -0.6%, Telecom -0.5%, Financials -0.5%, Basic Materials -0.3%, Technology -0.2%, Energy -0.1%;Utilities +1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Risk aversion sentiment remains prevalent as themes of China slowdown and Ukraine-Russia standoff sending more investors to the sidelines.
- The EUR/USD was well below the psychological 1.40 handle after ECB's Draghi verbal intervention on Thursday to stem its rise. Draghi noted that FX rate was now becoming more relevant in assessing price stability.
- The strength of the yen served to exacerbate Japanese stock market losses. The Nikkei225 Index hit a one-month low after suffering its worst weekly performance in nine months. USD/JPY at 101.63 ahead of the NY morning.

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Feb Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.9%e ; nine-month low
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Mar 8th (y/y): +6.6 v +6.9% prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Final CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (FI) Finland Jan GDP Indicator WD: +0.2% v -1.5% prior
- (FI) Finland Jan Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.2% prelim
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 213.3K v 203.7K tons prior
- (ES) Spain Jan House transactions Y/Y: -23.2% v -3.6% prior
- (FI) Finland Jan Current Account Balance: -380M v -740M prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan Industrial Output Y/Y: 5.5% v 6.7%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 5.0% v 1.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: 6.4% v 3.0%e
- (CH) Swiss Feb Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.5%e
- Spain banks Feb Gross borrowings from ECB: 190.6B v 193.4B prior (18th straight monthly decline

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (ES) Spain Jan Trade Balance: No est v -1.8B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- (PE) Peru Feb Unemployment Rate: 6.7%e v 6.4% prior
- (PE) Peru Jan Economic Activity Index Y/Y: 4.9%e v 5.0% prior
- (RU) Russia Jan Trade Balance: $17.7Be v $15.8B prior; Exports: $39.4Be v $49.2B prior;
Imports: $21.7Be v $33.4B prior
- - (AT) Austria Feb CPI M/M: No est v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
- 05:30 (UK) Jan Visible Trade Balance: -8.6Be v -7.7B prior; Total Trade Balance: -2.2Be v -1.0B prior; Trade Balance Non EU: -2.6Be v -2.2B prior (**Note data was delayed citing need to conduct more quality checks. Was originally due out on Wed, Mar 12th)
- 05:30 (UK) Jan Construction Output M/M: 1.5%e v 2.0% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 6.3% prior
- 05:30 (IT) Italy Jan General Government Debt: No est v 2.0675T prior
- 05:30 (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave One-Week Auction Rate unchanged at 7.00%
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell I/L Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Employment Q/Q: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.8% prior
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell I/L Bonds
- 06:15 (SE) Sweden Central bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves
- 07:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 07:10 (UK) DMO to sell 5.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Economic Activity Index M/M: +0.%e v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Mar 7th: No est v $294.4B prior
- 07:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends ZDH Trade Group Congress:
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (IL) Israel Feb CPI M/M: -0.2%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) PPI Final Demand M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) PPI Ex Food and Energy Final Demand M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank Survey of Expectations (TCMB)
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Feb M3 Money Supply M/M: +0.7%e v -1.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.3%e v 5.5% prior
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Feb CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior
- 09:00 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:00 Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming Bond for next week organizing
- 09:55 (US) Mar Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 82.0e v 81.6 prior final
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Jan Trade Balance: No est v -1.2B prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.25B in bonds

 

 

 

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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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