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Crimea Votes to Rejoin Russia. EZ Final February HICP(CPI) Revised Lower
|Crimea Votes to Rejoin Russia. EZ Final February HICP(CPI) Revised Lower|
March 18, 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Housing Starts/Permits, CPI, TIC Data, ,API Energy
| EURUSD 1.3920
|| U.S. 2.66% +1bp
|| North America:Higher|
| EURJPY 141.57
|| Bund 1.57% +3bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6636
|| GILT 2.69% 0bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 101.69
|| JGB 0.62% +2bp
|| Far East Close:Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Housing Starts/Permits, CPI
- There was never any doubt about the outcome of the Crimea Referendum on independence from the Ukraine. Over 97% of the votes were in favor of rejoining Crimea with Russia. There was no way to vote otherwise,.so the outcome of the vote was pre-ordained and markets were able to position for that outcome last week. The end of last week saw volatile trade as investors ran for cover, and since there were no major surprises early Monday, trading was relatively calm. If anything Monday has been a "risk-on" day, as traders lifted their hedges against an unexpected outcome from the weekend.
- Revised Eurozone February HICP (preliminary 0.80% y/y) data released saw the key yr/yr reading marked down to 0.70%. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, This came after Draghi comments made last week that sounded like a warning that the value of the currency is getting be too high. It is possible that the EURUSD 1.40 area is seen as the point of pain for the ECB. A higher euro would be disinflationary for the Eurozone economy.
- This Wednesday will see a Fed Decision. No changes in the present course of policy are widely expected. With long-term U.S. rates falling and the economy doing better, there might be a temptation to accelerate the pace of the Fed asset purchase taper, but caution suggests they will keep to their $10bln per month reduction pace.
- This month's decision will be accompanied by Yellen's first press conference. She typically is very well prepared for these events and tends to be clearer than many of her predecessors in her public statements. We do not expect this meeting to be market-moving.
- The data calendar for the week ahead is an active one. On Tuesday the German ZEW data will be released along with U.S. CPI. U.S. Housing data will be coming out all week. The Highlight on Wednesday will be U.K. Employment data and the latest Bank of England policy minutes. Thursday highlights include the latest Swiss National Bank policy decision and U.K. Retail Sales. Then on Friday, Canadian Retail Sales and CPI data are due.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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