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Tuesday March 18, 2014 - 15:32:37 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Equities Rally as Russia Annexes Crimea

Tue, 18 Mar 2014 11:14 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Mar ZEW Current Situation: 51.3 v 52.0e; Expectations Survey: 46.6 v 52.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar ZEW Expectations Survey: 61.5 v 68.5 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Trade Balance NSA: 0.9 v 13.8B prior
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey to sell New Zero Bonds
- (CL) Chile Q4 GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.8%e; GDP Full Year 2013 Y/Y: 4.1% v 5.6% prior
- (CL) Chile Q4 Current Account Balance: -2.4B v -$4.0Be
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Mar 15th: w/w +0.7%; y/y: +1.5%
- (RU) Russia Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.1% v 0.5%e
- (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to left all key rates unchanged (as expected); left Benchmark Repurchase Rate unchanged at 10.00%; Overnight Lending Rate left unchanged at 12.00% and Overnight Borrowing Rate left unchanged at 8.00%
- (US) Feb CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2%e
- (US) Feb CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (US) Feb CPI NSA: 234.781 v 234.737e; CPI Core Index: 236.122 v 236.202e
- (US) Feb Housing Starts: 907K v 910Ke; Building Permits: 1.018M v 960Ke
- (CA) Canada Jan Manufacturing Sales M/M: 1.5% v 0.6%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Mar 15th +2.8% y/y, Mar MTD: -0.5% m/m, Mar MTD +2.6% y/y
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Mar 15th % y/y, Mar MTD: % m/m, Mar MTD % y/y
- (US) Jan Net Long-term TIC Flows: $7.3B v $40.0Be; Total Net TIC Flows: +$83.0B v $126.7B prior
- (PL) Poland Feb Average Gross Wages M/M: 1.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.2%e
- (PL) Poland Feb Employment M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e

- Kremlin officials say that Crimea is now officially part of the Russian Federation, following today's signing ceremony. Russia President Putin's remarks this morning were taken as somewhat of a de-escalation by the market, especially his 'Russia does not seek the partition of Ukraine' line, although reports of bases being stormed on Crimea after 10:30ET has turned things around mid morning. As of writing, European indices are off their session highs, the DJIA is up 0.50%, the S&P500 is up 0.48% and the Nasdaq is up 0.79%.

- The FOMC is beginning its first meeting chaired by Janet Yellen this morning. The decision tomorrow will be followed by a press conference. The taper is expected to continue and some changes to the forward guidance are expected, including a possible elimination of the 6.5% unemployment threshold. Comments by a number of Fed officials in recent weeks suggest that, despite the recent turmoil in some emerging markets, the Ukraine crisis and the softer news on activity at home, the Fed is sticking to its timetable.

- EUR/USD made another run toward 1.3950 this morning just after Putin started speaking, however the pair was back at yesterday's lows around 1.3880 by mid morning. Spot gold dropped more than 1%, to trade around $1,356. Note that crude is rolling over from the April contract to the May contract, with the latter up around 1% to $97.60.

- Chinese solar giant YGE is down 10% after reporting a bigger-than-expected loss in its fourth quarter. The firm's margins were a bit higher and PV shipments were up 11% y/y. Note that most other US and Chinese solar names are not following YGE lower, and ReneSola and JinkoSolar are actually up 6% a piece in the early going. Note that earlier this morning, German polysilicon producer Wacker Chemie AG and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce reached an agreement to settle a trade dispute.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:55 (CA) Bank of Canada Govr Poloz speaks in Halifax
- 12:00 (FI) Finland Fin Min Urpilainen speaks in Kotka
- 13:45 (UK) BOE Gov Carney in London
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Feb Trade Balance: N-600.0Be v -2.790T prior; Adjusted Trade Balance: -907.0Be v -1.8188T prior
- 22:10 (JP) BOJ Board Member Kiuchi speaks in Shiga




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