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Wednesday March 19, 2014 - 10:13:19 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Focus on FOMC and whether guidance has been altered by the extreme US winter weather

Wed, 19 Mar 2014 5:37 AM EST

- Japan announced another trade deficit which was wider than expected but still smaller than the past 3 months on adjusted basis (-800B vs. -600Be)
- The UK budget is also in focus and expected to be neutral in tone ahead of the May 2015 elections in Britain.
- FOMC decision: Fed is widely expected to continue to reduce the size of its monthly bond purchase program by $10Bn each meeting, market to focus whether the extreme US winter weather altered their guidance on the economic recovery

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Jan All Industry Activity Index M/M: +1.2%e v -0.1% prior
- (JP) Japan Jan Final Leading Index CI: 113.1 v 112.2 prelim; Coincident Index: 115.2 v 114.8 prelim
- (JP) Japan Feb Nationwide Dept Sales Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.9% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales Y/Y: 3.9% v 5.4% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Feb CPI M/M: 1.1% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.9%e
- (ZA) South Africa Feb CPI Core M/M: 1.2% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.3%e
- (IL) Israel Mar CPI Forecast: 1.6% v 1.6% prior
- (IL) Israel Feb M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 16.6 v 15.8% prior
- (EU) ECB 80M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 20.0M prior; 27.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 36.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (FR) France Jan Current Account: -3.9B v -1.2B prior
- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) leaves 7-Day Lending Rate at 6.00% (11th straight pause in current tightening cycle)
- (UK) BOE voted 9-0 (unanimous) to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.50%
- (UK) BOE voted 9-0 (unanimous) to maintain Asset Purchase Target (APT) at 375B

- (UK) Feb Jobless Claims Change: -34.6K v -25.0Ke (16th straight month of improvement); Claimant Count Rate: 3.5% v 3.5%e (five-year low)
- (UK) Jan Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 1.3% v 1.2%e
- (UK) Jan ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.2%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: 105K v +110Ke

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR140B vs. INR140B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.1%
, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,590, DAX +0.1% at 9,251, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,306, IBEX-35 flat at 10,047, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 20,975, SMI +0.1% at 8,246, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,864]

- Market Focal Points: European equity markets open mixed as traders eye Fed decision and events related to Crimea, FTSE 100 weighed down amid ex dividends and declines in HSBC, Russian equities decline, Large Spanish retailer Inditex rises after earnings report, Upcoming earnings from FedEX, German companies continue to announce stock splits, Analysts continue to make positive comments on Banca Monte Paschi

By Sector
- Industrials
[HeidelbergCement HEI.DE -2.5% (dividend below ests)]
- Technology [Smiths Group SMIN.UK -4% (H1 sales below ests); Imagination Technologies IMG.UK +4% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Metro MEO.DE -1% (confirms delay of Russian unit IPO); Inditex ITX.ES +2.5% (FY results in line), Peugeot UG.FR +1% (confirmed new Chairman)]
- Basic Resources/Materials [Anglo American AAL.UK -2% (ex dividend); Aurubis NDA.DE +4% (broker commentary), Wacker Chemie WCH.DE +4% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [HSBC HSBA.UK -0.9% (broker commentary); Eurazeo RF.FR +2% (reported a FY profit)]
- Healthcare [Bioalliance Pharma +12% (regulatory update)]
- Energy [Ophir Energy OPHR.UK -18% (unsuccessful drilling update)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom -0.5%, Basic Materials -0.5%, Utilities -0.4%, Financials -0.4%, Industrials -0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.3%, Energy -0.2%, Technology -0.1%; Consumer Cyclical flat]

- BOE Minutes reiterated likely unemployment rate to hit 7% in coming months.
Market reaction to phase 2 forward guidance 'limited' Range of views on MPC over inflation outlook. Stronger GBP currency made more likely CPI below 2.5% in 18-24 months
- Sweden Finance Min Borg stated that he saw a slow recovery for global economy and not
a strong recovery in domestic economy. Growth to slow in coming years than what it had been historically in any recovery phase
- Ukraine acting defense Min stated that Ukrainian forces would not withdraw from Crimea. Ukraine military in Crimea is legal and to stay until a political decision (**Reminder: Reports circulated that Crimea defense forces (Russians) stormed the Ukrainian naval base on the Crimean peninsula)
- Japan BoJ gov Kuroda commented that the global economy was on the path to recovery but pace remained moderate. BOJ easing was steadily having the intended impact; moving smoothly towards the 2% inflation target. He reiterated view that sales tax increase would NOT interrupt its virtuous economic cycle
- Former BoJ member Muto commented that he saw BoJ easing between Apr and Sep (first half of next fiscal year). He noted that failure to raise the sales tax a second time in 2015 could hurt the JGB market. He saw a high chance of fiscal stimulus in 2014/15
- An unnamed China govt official commented that PBOC was alright with medium-term Yuan currency weakness and that a level of 6.30could be the possible limit. He added that a weak CNY currency or Fx outflows could prompt a RRR cut

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets were in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC rate decision (first under the tenue of Chair Janel Yellen). Markets will focus whether the Fed amends its guidance due to the extreme US winter weather
- The EUR/USD remains hovering above the 1.39 handle. Any fresh doviness out of the Fed could send the pair above the 1.40 level with buy-stops building above 1.4050.
- The UK budget is also in focus and expected to be neutral in tone ahead of the May 2015 elections in Britain. The GBP was former aided by better UK employment and wage data in the session. GBP/USD at 1.6620 just ahead of the NY morning.

Political/In the Papers:
- (UK) BOE's Carney: Reiterates any changes in interest rates will be gradual and limited - comments in London
- (US) US Treasury Official: Unaware of any Russia govt moves to liquidate holdings of USTs
- (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty resigns from the cabinet; Informed PM Harper yesterday he plans to return to the private sector. Natural Resources Min Joe Oliver said to be the replacement
- (AU) According to one financial press survey, 12 out of 32 analysts expect RBA to start raising cash rates before the end of 2014; Only 6 expect another rate cut
-(CN) China's 7-day repo rate opened at 3.4%, up about 50bps
-USD/CNY: Onshore Yuan trading (CNY) through 6.2000 level, v prior close of 6.1920; Today's trading limit around 6.2570 level
-(JP) BOJ's Kiuchi: Doubling size of JGB purchases is technically feasible, but hurdle to any additional easing is high

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (SE) Sweden Central Bank Gov Ingves with Fin Min Borg at Affarsvarlden Bank & Finans Outlook
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Portugal PM Coelho in Berlin
- 06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Jan Construction Output M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.2% prior
- 06:00 (EU) Euro Q4 Labour Costs Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 06:00 (CH) Swiss Mar Credit Suisse ZEW Survey Expectations: No est v 28.7 prior
- 06:00 (DE) German BDB Bank Lobby presents economic forecasts for 2014
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (SE) Sweden to sell Bills
- 06:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed % vs. $0.0M prior
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 1.75% 2024 Bunds
- 06:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell combined 2.25B in 6-month and 12-month Bills

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 14th: No est v -2.1% prior
- 07:00 (PT) Portugal Feb PPI M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.4% prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Trade Balance: No est v 3.4B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jan Retail Sales M/M: -0.5%e v +1.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 3.5% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar (2nd reading) IGP-M Inflation: 1.4%e v 0.2% first reading
- 07:00 (IT) Italy PM Renzi in Parliament on finances
- 07:15 (UR) EU Commissioner Rehn on Ukraine aid
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (UK) Weekly PM Cameron question time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (RU) Russia canceled OFZ Bond auction
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Current Account Balance: -$88.0Be v -$94.8B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: +0.8%e v -1.4% prior
- 08:30 (UK) Chancellor Osborne announces Budget to Parliament
- 08:30 (UK) Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) updates economic forecasts

- 09:00 (PL) Poland Feb Sold Industrial Output M/M: -1.0%e v +2.9% prior; Y/Y: 6.1%e v 4.1% prior
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Feb PPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.1%e v -0.9% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:45 (UK) BOE to buy 1.35B in APT operation with residual maturity between 7-15 years
- 11:00 (FI) Finland Fin Min Urpilainen Speaks in Turku
- 11:00 (SE) Sweden Fin Min Borg with Riksbank Jochnick
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.25B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
11:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-Year Bonds
- 13:45 (CH) SNB's Jordan on panel discussion in Bern -
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 0.25% and continue pace of tapering
- Expected to cut QE3 Pace by $10B to $55B (Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases: $30Be v $35B prior; Fed Pace of MBS Purchases: $25B v $30 prior
- 14:30 (US) Fed Chair Yellen holds post rate decision press conference
- 15:10 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Jochnick
- 17:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.5% prior




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