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Week Ahead Sees Active and Possibly Eventful News Calendar
|Week Ahead Sees Active and Possibly Eventful News Calendar|
March 24 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Far East: CN- HSBC flash PMI. Europe: EZ/DE/FR- flash PMIs. North America: US- fl Markit PMI
| EURUSD 1.3795
|| U.S. 2.76% -1bp
|| North America:Higher|
| EURJPY 140.84
|| Bund 1.64% -1bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6493
|| GILT 2.75% -1bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.10
|| JGB 0.60% -1bp
|| Far East Close:Higher|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CN- HSBC flash PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash PMIs, US- flash Markit PMI
- Fed Chair Yellen's unexpected revelation of the apparent Fed time line for a start of a normalization of monetary policy is the new trading theme for global financial markets.. If she made a gaffe, it might only have been disclosing the time line. There is no way she made up the timing of a likely Fed tightening off the top of her head.
- I don't thin this revaluation was pre-planned, but I don't think it was in error. Were we all were expecting U.S. rates to remain at zero forever? Obviously the ultimate tightening, I call it "normalization", will have be data-dependent.
- From a trading perspective, expect the focus of the markets will increasingly be on U.S, employment and inflation data over the next year or so. The first hurdle will be if U.S. jobs data in the first two months were adversely-impacted by the weather. That time line could change if the economy is not improving. I indicated a week ago that I felt the global economy has been improving. Now we need a sustained improvement in the data to confirm it.
- A rebounding U.S. economy WOULD be USD supportive. As for chatter about "damage control" Personally, I don't see any "damage" to control. I think the Fed Board is increasingly worried about the long-term risks of all the money they have been printing. It seems to me that if the Fed is moving onto a normalization path for policy, it would be because the economy is finally starting to recover. I don't see how better growth with low inflation would not be positive for stocks?
- The news data calendar for the week ahead is active one. Monday sees flash March PMI data from a number of key economies. On Tuesday, the closely followed German IFO Survey will be released, along with U.K. inflation data and U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence.
- Wednesday features U.K. GDP and U.S. Durable Goods. On Thursday, U.K. Retail Sales data are released. Later in the day, U.S. Weekly Jobless data are slated. Early Friday the usual Japanese end of month slew of data are due. The U.S. will see Personal Income data and the final University of Michigan Survey for March.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
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