User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday August 9, 2005 - 12:31:59 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• JPY supported by brighter economic news.

• Working out likely Japanese voter sentiments will be a complex business. Opinion polls are awaited.

• EUR-USD reverses initial gains.

• FOMC statement may change today, but they will be keen to maintain the idea of further rate hikes.

• US productivity/unit labor costs also feature.

Market Outlook

The JPY has given up some of the corrective gains seen yesterday, although USD has been firmer in general after weakening initially in Europe. JPY supportive factors have been a strong machinery orders number and a slight economic assessment upgrade from the BoJ in its latest monthly report. Yesterday’s corrective JPY gains no doubt reflected the positioning that has been maintained in recent weeks against the JPY – a classic ‘sell on the rumour buy on the fact reaction’ to yesterday’s confirmation about a Japanese election. However, political uncertainty will not go away in Japan, so the JPY is likely to remain a little constrained. USD-JPY needs to get below 110.75 to suggest a powerful signal on the downside. With regard to how things pan out politically over the next few weeks, culminating in the election itself, there are many permutations. If the public are truly sympathetic towards reform, they could support Koizumi, although this would mean voting for the LDP and they may feel that he has had his chance and that they now need to look outside the LDP, which has ultimately proved to be too much of a constraint to Koizumi’s instincts. The DPJ opposition claim that they are an alternative to the LDP monolith, but the DPJ voted against postal reform, so can they truly claim to be reformist? This is why Koizumi is keen to throw out all of those LDP MPs who voted against the bill in the Lower House vote in July. Then Koizumi can claim that the party is ’cleaner’ and more able to push through reforms in the future. In this regard, a split in he LDP is not undesirable as far as Koizumi is concerned. Opinion polls are now awaited for signs about how public sentiment is developing.

EUR-USD continues to look as if it wants to push higher and a test of 1.2450-1.2500 still looks likely in the short-term as the mini-bottoming formation initiated last week runs its course. Indeed, this could extend to 1.2650 before sellers return. 1.24- plus was seen early in Europe, although each time this ran into selling. This perhaps reflects some natural USD support ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, although 1.2345-55 needs to break to see this being extended through North American trading. Indeed, there could be some fun and games today if the Fed changes its statement, which is a possibility (see below for preview), although this may not be USD negative and could actually turn out to be positive if a hawkish spin is put on the matter.

Cable did well yesterday and technically it looks fairly clear up to 1.80, although tomorrow’s Inflation Report may just keep things in check for now. A report devoid of fresh dovish shocks is required to keep the GBP recovery going. The BRC survey released last night suggests that conditions are still challenging for retailers, while trade data this morning was a little more encouraging (albeit just one month of data).

Day Ahead
US – productivity and unit labor costs data is due today although the FOMC meeting will be the major highlight. Unit labor costs are something the FOMC will be anxiously watching after the strength seen in recent quarters. The chart shows the y/y rate, while the annualised q/q growth rates over recent quarters have read as follows – Q105 +3.3%, Q404 +7.7%, Q304 +4.5% and Q204 +1.8% - so the pressure has been fairly constant. Alongside the strength in energy and other raw materials prices it is no surprise that the Fed remains a little nervous about potential price pressures, even though early year strength in core consumer price inflation has abated somewhat.

As noted in the Week Ahead Preview, there is an outside chance of the FOMC changing their statement somewhat today. The intention here would not be to signal that rates rises are coming to an end or that they will even slow up a little, but merely to get away from the language about removing policy accommodation. The reasoning is fairly straightforward. The funds rate is now approaching an area that some FOMC members may feel is bordering on neutrality, so to term the rates hikes as ‘removing policy accommodation’, may no longer be entirely accurate as far as these members are concerned. This will happen at some point. If they were to do this it could cause a surprise to markets, which the Fed does not like doing, so it is likely that the rest of the statement would be keen to convey the idea that more tightening is still to come. In fact, if they overdid the latter the market could end up taking the statement hawkishly i.e. that the funds rate is no longer confined by an area of neutrality but can start to move into outright tighter territory.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Aug 6) w/w 07.45 +0.9% last
CA Housing starts (Jul) 08.15 225k
US Productivity (Q2, 1st est) saar 08.30 +2.0%
US Unit lab costs (Q2, 1st est) saar 08.30 +3.0%
US Redbook sls (w/e Aug 6) m/m 08.55 +0.3% last
US FOMC meeting outcome 14.15 3.5%
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 10) 17.00 -11 last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB BRC retail survey (Jul) y/y -1.9% -0.5% last
AU Housing finance (Jun) m/m -0.9% -1.0%
AU NAB business survey (Jul) +7 +11 last
JP Machinery orders – core (Jun) m/m +11.1% +6.5%
DE Trade balance (Jun) €16.8 €13.0bn
DE Exports (Jun, sa) m/m -0.4% +3.6%R last
DE Current account (Jun) €10.4bn €6.0bn
DE WPI (Jul) y/y +2.5% +2.4%
GB Global trade balance (Jun) -£4.3bn -£4.9bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (Jun) -£1.4bn -£2.4bn
SE Unemployment rate (Jul, nsa) 6.0% 6.1%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 9 July 2018
AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105