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Monday March 24, 2014 - 10:19:43 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI data continues to be mixed but France surprises on the upside with a return to growth

 
Mon, 24 Mar 2014 5:19 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China Mar HSBC PMI Manufacturing registers its 5th MoM sequential decline (3rd in contraction territory) ( 48.1 vs 48.7e); Asian equity markets shrugged off weak PMI numbers on speculation the Chinese government would unveil stimulus measures to support the economy. (Vice Fin Min Zhu plays down speculation of seeking too much stimulus)
- French economy finally starting to rebound with its PMI readings unexpectantly returns to growth; data added to arguments of the hawks at the ECB
- Germany PMIs miss expectations but remain in growth territory
- Chess match continues in the Ukraine region as Russia incorporates Crimea into its territory

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Feb CPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.8%e

- (JP) Japan Feb Supermarket Sales Y/Y: +1.5% v -0.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Feb PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.3% v -0.9% prior
- (GR) Greece Jan Current Account Balance: -295M v -215M prior
- (FR) France Mar Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 51.9 v 49.7e (first growth in 25 months and highest reading since Aug 2011; PMI Services: 51.4 v 47.5e (first growth in 5 months)
- (TW) Taiwan Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 7.0% v 4.3%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 2.1% v 3.4%e
- (CZ) Czech Mar Business Confidence: 10.0 v 9.1 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: -5.5 v -9.0 prior; Composite: 6.9 v 5.5 prior
- (EU) ECB 917M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.0B prior; 34.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 26.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany Mar Advance PMI Manufacturing: 53.8 v 54.5e; PMI Services: 54.0 v 55.5e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Advance PMI Manufacturing: 53.0 v 53.0e; PMI Services: 52.4 v 52.6e; PMI Composite: 53.2 v 53.2e


Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6541,
DAX -0.3% at 9,309, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,311, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 9,991, FTSE MIB flat at 20,974, SMI -0.6% at 8,241, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,862]

Market Focal Points: European equity markets open mixed and then move lower amid PMI releases out of China and Europe, Air Berlin rises on takeover offer, European PMIs mixed (France above ests, Germany below)

By Sector
- Industrials
[Kentz Corp KENZ.UK +4% (upbeat outlook)]
- Financials [Talanx TLX.DE +1% (raised dividend)]
- Healthcare [Evotec EVT.DE +3% (acquisition)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Air Berlin AB1.DE +6% (M&A); Givaudan GIVN.CH -4% (ex-dividend)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy -0.9%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.5%, Basic Materials -0.3%, Technology -0.3%, Financials -0.2%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Industrials +0.3%, Telecom +0.2%, Utilities +0.1%]

Speakers:
- ECB's Liikanen
spoke at a Bank of Finland Briefing in Helsinki and noted that it was premature to say problems in European banks were solved. Lack of confidence in balance sheets still loomed large nut did notes improvement in financial market and bank funding conditions. He added that the AQR/stress tests would improve confidence further. He also reiterated ECB's forward guidance that interest rates to remain low well into the recovery and rates to be at present or lower levels for extended period
- Finland Fin Min Urpilainen commented that the country needed 3.0B in austerity but added the Govt might ease on principle of splitting austerity measures equally between tax increase and spending cuts
- Russia Dep Defense Min Antonov: Not bolstering troops on Ukraine border
- Ukraine Defense Ministry said to have been given orders to withdraw Ukrainian forces from Crimea
- China might announce free-trade zones in the capital Beijing as well as some neighboring areas including Hebei province and Tianjin city

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Dealers were discussing a more supportive tone for the USD aided by a move higher in 2-year US yields. The greenback supportive tone could extend beyond the commodity-related pairs.
- French data helped to confirm the realization that the Euro zone recovery was broadening. The data added to arguments of the hawks at the ECB but Germany's readings showed some slowing of its recent strength.
- The EUR/USD tested 1.3827 after the French data but saw all of its gains evaporate after the Germany data miss and in-line Euero Zone readings.
- CNY currency (Yuan) rebounded from 13-month lows on stimulus hopes and exhibited its best session since Oct 2011; firms by 0.6% against USD to close under 6.19 level

Political/In the Papers:
- (UK) BOE's Dale: Does not know what will happen to interest rates in the next 6-12 months.
- (EU) ECB's Liikanen (Finland): There is still scope to cut interest rates further, taking deposit rates to negative territory - Finnish media interview
-(EU) ECB's Constancio (Portugal): markets missed that ECB reinforced its forward guidance at March meeting by linking policy to closure of slack in the economy; ECB is not considering using threshold guidance; The ECB still has many other tools available if more accommodation is needed: tools include rate cuts, negative deposit rates, targeted liquidity operations, and quantitative easing.
- (CY) Moody's revised the outlook on Cyprus's Caa3 government bond rating to positive
- (CN) China Vice Fin Min Zhu: China does not want too much stimulus; Does not see potential for big devaluation of yuan.
- (CN) China premier Li: Expects more concerted efforts to improve the environment to create new business opportunities and spur growth - Chinese press
- (JP) Bank of Japan's Kuroda: Reiterates inflation expectations are generally on the rise; have been doing everything possible to achieve inflation target
- (JP) BOJ Dep Gov Iwata: Risk of deflation will emerge if inflation runs below 1% for 'long period of time'

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (FI) Finland Govt negotiates spending limits for 2015-2018
- (PT) Portugal Jan Current Account Balance: No est v -12.2M prior
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds in Switch auction
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 6-week bills
- 06:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency cancelled Bond Auction
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell 2.0B in 12-month BuBills
- 07:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2016 and 2018 bonds
- 07:00 (IL) Israel Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.9% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON300 Mln Bonds
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb PPI M/M: No est v 0.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index: +0.10e v -0.39 prior
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Current Account Balance: -$8.0Be v -$11.6B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $3.4Be v $5.1B prior
- 09:45 (US) Mar Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 56.5e v 57.1 prior
- 09:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.7B total in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills

- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Business Confidence: -5.0e v -4.0 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Unemployment Rate: 4.9%e v 5.1% prior; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 4.8%e v 4.8% prior
- 10:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.25%
- 10:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:45 (UK) BOE to purchase 1.35B in 2021-28 Gilts (APF reinvestment)
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.50-0.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged 0.75% prior
- 12:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Lane speaks at York University

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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