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Eurozone PMI Data Mixed. France Spikes Higher. China's Data Disappoints. IFO Tuesday
|Eurozone PMI Data Mixed. France Spikes Higher. China's Data Disappoints. IFO Tuesday|
March 25 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: DE- IFO Survey, UK- CPI & RPI, CBI Distributive Trades, US- Case Shiller, CB Consumer Sentiment, Richmond Fed, New Homes Sales, 2-yr, API
| EURUSD 1.3840
|| U.S. 2.75% -1bp
|| North America:Lower|
| EURJPY 141.43
|| Bund 1.60% -bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6498
|| GILT 2.71% -5bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 102.17
|| JGB 0.61% +1bp
|| Far East Close:Higher|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, UK- CPI, RPI and PPI, US- Case-Shiller Index, CB Consumer Sentiment, New Homes Sales
- On Tuesday, the closely followed German IFO Survey will be released, along with U.K. inflation data and U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey.
- EZ- flash PMIs were mixed Monday, however the French data showed an unexpected improvement . U.S. flash PMI gave back some of its January gains. Earl lier HSBC Chinese flash PMI weakened, See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
- Fed Governors continues to comment on Yellen's recent statements on Fed policy indicating rather vaguely that policy has not changed.
- From a trading perspective, expect the focus of the markets will increasingly be on U.S, employment and inflation data over the next year or so. The first hurdle will be if U.S. jobs data in the first two months were adversely-impacted by the weather.
- A rebounding U.S. economy WOULD be USD supportive. As for chatter about "damage control" Personally, I don't see any "damage" to control. I think the Fed Board is increasingly worried about the long-term risks of all the money they have been printing. It seems to me that if the Fed is moving onto a normalization path for policy, it would be because the economy is finally starting to recover. I don't see how better growth with low inflation would not be positive for stocks?
- Wednesday features U.K. GDP and U.S. Durable Goods. On Thursday, U.K. Retail Sales data are released. Later in the day, U.S. Weekly Jobless data are slated. Early Friday the usual Japanese end of month slew of data are due. The U.S. will see Personal Income data and the final University of Michigan Survey for March.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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