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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German IFO Survey comes in mixed; UK CPI remains below the BOE target

Tue, 25 Mar 2014 5:36 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- S&P cut Brazil credit rating to BBB- from BBB, the lowest level of investment grade, with Stable outlook. Stable
- The spigot of western sanctions on Russia has widened further as G7 officials emergency meeting at the Hague
- European officials continue to provide some verbal intervention in Euro
- German IFO Survey comes in mixed impacted by the crisis in Crimea

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Small Business Confidence: 53.5 v 50.6 prior; highest since April 1989
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Leading Indicator: 100.2 v 99.9 prior
- (FI) Finland Feb Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 8.7%e
- (FR) France Mar Business Confidence: 95 v 95e; Manufacturing Confidence: 100 v 100e; Own-Company Production Outlook: 9 v 8 prior; Production Outlook Indicator: -11 v -6 prior
- (ES) Spain Feb PPI M/M: -0.7% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -2.9% (biggest decline since Oct 2009) v -1.9% prior
- (AT) Austria Jan Industrial Production M/M: +2.8% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: +5.0% v -0.5% prior (revised from -0.6%)
- (EU) ECB 1.05B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 917M prior; 31.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 34.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (TW) Taiwan Feb M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.6% v 6.0% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.6% v 9.9% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Jan Consumer Spending Y/Y: -1.5% v 0.7% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Producer Confidence Index: +1.1 v +0.2e
- (SE) Sweden Feb PPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Trade Balance (HKD): -53.7BB v -38.0Be; Imports Y/Y: 6.8% v +7.7%e; Exports Y/Y: -1.3% v +8.3%e
- (DE) Germany Mar IFO Business Climate: 110.7 v 110.9e; Current Assessment: 115.2 v 114.5e; Expectations Survey: 106.4 v 107.7e
- (PL) Poland Feb Unemployment Rate: 13.9% v 14.1%e
- (PL) Poland Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.6% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: 7.0% v 6.1%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Non-EU Trade Balance: 1.4B v 659M y/y
- (UK) Feb CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.6%e
- (UK) Feb RPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%e; RPI Ex Mort Interest Payments Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%e; Retail Price Index: 254.2 V 253.9e
- (UK) Feb PPI Input M/M: -0.4% V +0.3%e; Y/Y: -5.7% V -5.3%e
- (UK) Feb PPI Output M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% V 0.7%e
- (UK) Feb PPI Output Core M/M: 0.1% V 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.1%e
- (UK) Jan ONS House Price Y/Y: 6.8% V 6.6%e
- (UK) Feb BBA Loans for House Purchase: 47.6K V 50.0Ke

Fixed Income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) opened its book to sell minimum of 5.0B in new 2% July 2024 DSL; order book over 5.0B

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.7%,
FTSE 100 +1% at 6,588, DAX +0.9% at 9,272, CAC-40 +0.9% at 4,313, IBEX-35 +0.2% at 9,935, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 20,768, SMI +1% at 8,287, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,852]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open higher following losses on Monday's session, Luxottica rises after announcing partnership with Google, Easyjet raises forecast, German IFO data mixed

By Sector
- Healthcare
[Cellectis ALCLS.FR +15% (financing agreement), Evotec EVT.DE +3% (reported FY adj op profit), Stada SAZ.DE +2% (confirmed FY results)]
- Technology [Monitise MONI.UK +5% (partnership with Mastercard), OSRAM OSR.DE +4% (broker commentary); Kontron KBC.DE -2% (FY profits declined)]
- Financials [Panmure Gordon PMR.UK +3% (FY profits rose y/y), Baloise BALN.CH +1% (raised dividend)]
- Consumer Discretionary [888 Holdings 888.UK +5% (special dividend), Easyjet EZJ.UK +4% (raised outlook), Kingfisher KGF.UK +3% (FY results above ests), Luxottica LUX.IT +3% (agreement with Google); Hornbach HBH3.DE -2% (share placement)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Non-Cyclical +1%, Financials +0.8%, Industrials +0.7%, Basic Materials +0.6%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Technology +0.5%, Energy +0.3%; Utilities -0.2%, Telecom -0.2%]

Speakers:
- EU Commissioner Tajani: Euro exchange rate at 1.40 is too strong

- ECB's Weidmann (Gernany) noted that bond buys according to ECB capital key was problematic but reiterated interest rates were still appropriate. He added that a firm Euro was no reason to cut medium term inflation forecast just yet but further appreciation might significantly impact inflation. Negative rates could counter impact of strong euro, but saw no imminent decision on negative deposit rates. He still saw scope on conventional measures, but they were limited and must weigh impact and costs of unconventional tools. ECB purchases of private top-rated assets was an option
- IFO Economists commented that crisis in Emerging markets and Crimea affected confidence but German export expectations had not worsened. Russia sanctions were hesitant, no concrete impact at this time. German private consumption was strong, conditions in retail had improved
- German Bundesbank's Dombret: Lenders different valuations of the same risks under different models need to be addressed
- Finland 6-party ruling coalition resumed talks on four-year spending limits
- Brazil govt said to renegotiate BRL238B in Brazil development bank (BNDES) debt
- Asia Development Bank (ADB) President Nakao stated that it might lower Japan 2014 GDP growth forecast but did not see Japan economy slowing too much following the implementation of sales tax increase
- Indonesia Central Bank Dep Gov: Reiterated view that monetary bias remained hawkish
- Bank run said to have occurred at a branch of Jiangsu Sheyang Commercial Bank in China following rumors that it was insolvent.
- Fitch affirmed Philippines sovereign rating at BBB- (lowest level of investment grade); outlook stable
- NATO Chief Rasmussen stated that he was very concerned about Russian build up on the Eastern Ukraine border and that it had plans to defend Allies

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The euro has consolidated Monday's sharp gain attributed to short-covering after Chinese President Xi Jinping told US President Barack Obama that a political resolution to the crisis in Ukraine would serve the interests of all sides. Dealers noted 1.3870 as current resistance in the EUR/USD pair. EU Commissioner Tajani added some more verbal intervention when he noted that Euro exchange rate at 1.40 was too strong
-Hopes of possible stimulus measures from China continued to help to limit losses in Asia

Political/In the Papers:
- (CN) Former PBoC adviser Li Daokui: CNY may appreciate by 3-5% in the next 12 months; China to not implement stimulus measures.
- (RU) G7 leaders agree to hold summit in Brussels in June instead of attending the G8 hosted by Russia in Sochi - financial press citing France diplomatic source
- (CA) Russia Govt issues list of sanctions against certain Canada officials; 13 Canadian lawmakers have been banned from Russia.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble in Berlin at skilled trade event
- (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (ES) EU inspectors arrive in Spain to assess financial sector
- (RO) Romania Feb M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 9.7% prior
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell Bonds
- 06:15 (EU) ECB announces allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.25%
- 06:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Months Bills
- 07:00 (UK) Mar CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 28e v 37 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ISCS Chain Store Sales
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Term Deposit Tender to offset bond purchases in SMP program
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Tax Collections (BRL): 85.1Be v 123.7B prior
- 08:30 (TR) Turkey Mar Real Sector Confidence: No est v 104.6 prior
- 08:30 (TR) Turkey Mar Capacity Utilization: No est v 73.3% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail sales
- 09:00 (US) Jan S&P/CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 0.60%e v 0.76% prior; Y/Y: 13.34%e v 13.42% prior; Home Price Index: 165.73e v 165.69 prior
- 09:00 (US) Jan House Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior
- 09:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 10bps to 2.60%
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 10:00 (US) Mar Consumer Confidence Index: 78.5e v 78.1 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: +4e v -6 prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb New Home Sales: 445Ke v 468K prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Economic Activity Index Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.1% prior
- 10:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 3-Month Refinancing Tender
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.25B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (EU) ECB chief Draghi in Paris
- 12:00 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) in Berlin
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 2-Year Notes
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 16:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart in Atlanta
- 16:30 US) API Weekly Oil Inventories
- 18:30 (AU) RBA's Lowe speaks at CIFR Conference in Sydney
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 3.9% prelim
- 19:00 (US Fed's Plosser speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in New York
- 20:30 (AU) RBA Financial Stability Review

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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