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Wednesday March 26, 2014 - 15:14:37 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: US Treasury markets firm up and stocks tack on small gains ahead of CCAR release

Wed, 26 Mar 2014 10:57 AM EST

**Economic Data***
- (IT) Italy Mar Consumer Confidence Index: 101.7 v 98.4e
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 21st: -3.5% v +0.2% prior
- (IE) Ireland Feb Property Prices M/M: +0.1% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 8.1% v 6.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Consumer Confidence: 107.2 v 107.1 prior
- (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e
- (US) Feb Durable Goods Orders: +2.2% v +0.8%e; Durables Ex Transportation: +0.2% v +0.3%e; Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex- Aircraft: -1.3% v 0.5%e; Capital Goods Shipment Non-defense Ex-Aircraft: +0.5% v +0.8%e; Durables Ex-Defense: +1.8% v -1.9% prior
- (BR) Brazil Feb Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 2.73T v 2.717T prior; M/M: 0.6% v 0.1% prior; Private Banks Lending: 1.32T v 1.315T prior
- (US) Mar Preliminary Markit PMI Services: 55.5 v 54.0e; PMI Composite: 55.8 v 54.1 prior
- (US) DOE Crude: +6.6M v +3Me; Gasoline: +3M v -1Me; Distillate: -5.1M v -1.5Me; Utilization: 86% v %85.9

- US stocks opened to the upside helped by gains in Asian and European bourses. A headline beat in the Feb durable goods report and continued strength in US PMI services figures initially buoyed sentiment. Gold prices have tested the 200-day moving average just above $1300 as weakness persists. Panera Bread shares are down sharply as traders digest commentary from their annual analyst day out late in yesterday's session. Management noted new initiatives could depress margins and eps growth over the next few years. King Digital Shares opened for trade on the NYSE and the widely followed IPO has traded down from the $22.50 IPO price. The deal for the Candy Crush Saga operator is being watched closely as a barometer what many are concerned is a rapidly overheating IPO market. US Banking stocks are nearly flat ahead of comprehensive CCAR results expected for release on today's US close.

- The advance durable goods report for February was mixed but on balance somewhat weaker than expected. Overall orders rose 2.2% reflecting big gains in orders for motor vehicles, aircraft parts, and defense goods. However, orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 1.3% and the January increase was revised down from 1.5% to 0.8%. Some of the softness in core orders so far this quarter could be weather-related and business investment in equipment continues to hold up.

- The data and various Fed speak are helping keep a cap and in some cases even pressuring US rates. The benchmark 10-year yield remains unable to break above 2.75% despite all handwringing around post FOMC expectations for the eventual first rate hike. The Dec 2015 fed fund future still projects at least 50 basis points in hikes by year end to begin next summer. In the last 24 hours we have heard from Bullard, Lockhart and Plosser who have all essentially attempted to cement the notion that Fed policy has not changed. The 5-year is seeing notable bids ahead of a $35B auction as some of the recent curve flattening trades continue to get unwound.

- Major currency pairs remained locked in tight ranges while the Dollar Index is holding 80. The Euro remains unable to gain a foothold above 1.38. The Aussie Dollar remains near a 4-month high above 0.9230 after neutral comments by RBA Stevens. Analysts are still fixated on how the ECB might act at its policy meeting next week after a rash of central bank rhetoric clarifying guidance in recent sessions. Goldman Sachs Economist Schumacher: ECB might cut Refi and Deposit rates in April due to high Euro currency and weak CPI (Cut would require rise in forward yields, further easing of inflation in March and EUR/USD to appreciate to 1.40 area); Barclays noted that comments by usual hawkish central bankers indicated that ECB had consensus to take decisive steps including QE if it sees deflationary risks; RBS: QE would be a measure of last resort by the ECB; Nomura's Nordvig: Jun was the first change of a shift in ECB.

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) President Obama attends EU-U.S. Summit in Brussels
- (UR) IMF to announce results from Ukraine mission
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes Reopening
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 13:00 (FR) France Feb Net Change Jobseekers: +2.4Ke v +8.9K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.32Me v 3.316M prior
- 13:00 (US)Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 13:30 (DE) German Dep Labor Min Asmussen participates on Euro policy
- 15:00 (UK) Dep PM Clegg, Farage debate Britain in EU on LBC Radio
- 16:00 (US) Fed releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) Results
- 20:20 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on U.S. Monetary Policy in Hong Kong
- 21:30 (CN) China Feb YTD Industrial Profits: No est v 12.2% prior




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