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Thursday March 27, 2014 - 10:30:03 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: IMF reaches initial agreement on Ukraine; gold dips below $1,300

Thu, 27 Mar 2014 5:32 AM EST

- (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble will start talks about changes to EU Treaties - German press
- (RU) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: 2014 GDP growth to lag the official govt forecast of 2.5%
- (NZ) RBNZ Deputy Gov Spencer: Central bank needs to coordinate monetary and macro policy
- (SE) Hennes & Mauritz Reports Q1 Net SEK2.65B v SEK2.8Be, Pretax SEK3.5B v SEK3.8Be, Op Profit SEK3.4B v SEK3.6Be; Rex ex-VAT SEK32.1B v SEK28.4B y/y
- (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: Sees retail sales growth 'generally stable', but some dept store sales are soft due to online competition
- According to Gartner, 2014 PC, tablet and mobile phone shipments to grow 6.9% to 2.5B units
- (US) Federal Reserve releases results of Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR): 25 of 30 capital plans are approved; Fed objected to Citigroup, HSBC North America, RBS Citizens, Santander Holdings USA and Zions; Goldman and BoA only passed after modifying capital plans
- (CN) PBoC drained CNY 52B via 14 day and 28 day repos (11th straight drain); overall drained net CNY 98B on week; China money market rates jump higher; 7-day repo fixed up almost 110bps above 4.8%
- (UR) IMF confirmed staff level agreement with Ukraine on an international bailout package

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open lower following negative leads from the US and China, Retailer H&M declines on weaker than expected quarterly profits, German solar companies decline after reporting financial results, Italian bank Intesa expected to report during the US morning

- Indices [ FTSE 100 -0.5% at 6,574, DAX -0.2% at 9,431, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,372, IBEX-35 flat at 10,142, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 21,073, SMI -0.2% at 8,321, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,845]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Discretionary [H&M HMB.SE -3% (Q1 profits below ests)]
- Financials [Raiffeisen Bank RBI.AT +1.5% (Q4 profits above ests)]
- Energy [SMA Solar -7% (FY13 loss wider than ests), Solarworld SWVK.DE -4% (did not declare dividend), Tullow Oil -TLW.UK -3% (unfavorable drilling update)]
- Industrials [Alstom ALO.FR -3% (concerns related to bribery probe)]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- The USD maintained a firmer tone against the major pairs in the session.
- The EUR/USD was probing the lower end of its weekly range (1.3750) on continued speculation that the ECB could be more open to quantitative easing due to the inflation declines in Germany and the strength in the euro.
- NZD/USD: Kiwi hits highest level since Oct 2011; pair trades at 0.8680. New Zealand earlier did register its 4th straight month of trade surpluses
- Spot gold hit 6-week lows below $1,300/oz and probed below its 200-day moving average on the back of the USD strength.

***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Mar Business Confidence: -8 v -8 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: 8.5 v 7.5e
- (FR) France Mar Consumer Confidence: 88 V 85e
- (ES) Spain Jan Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: -25.8% v -26.3% prior; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: -32.4% v -30.1% prior
- (DK) Denmark Feb Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 4.2% v 4.3%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.5%e
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) left its Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected
- (EU) ECB 119M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.03B prior; 28.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 32.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (TW) Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) left its Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 1.875%; raised Reserve Requirement by 100bps to 19.00%
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left its Deposit Rates unchanged 1.50%, as expected
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e; M3 Money Supply 3-month average: 1.2% v 1.2%e

- (IT) Italy Mar Business Confidence: 99.2 v 99.5e; Economic Sentiment: 89.5 v 88.2 prior
- (UK) Feb Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 1.8% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 2.9%e
- (UK) Feb Retail Sales incl Auto M/M: 1.7% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.4%e

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 5.50%
- (BR) Brazil Feb Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): -3.8Be v +12.9B prior
- 06:00 (AT) WIFO Quarterly Economic Forecasts
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell 7.5B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.455% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.44x prior (Prior Feb 26th 2014 with yield a record low)
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-Months Bills; Avg Yield: % v 3.13% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.43x prior (prior Mar 13th 2014)
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (UK) DMO to sell 900M in 0.25% I/L 2052 Gilts
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Mar 21st: No est v $493.2B prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Quarterly Inflation report
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in Bills
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Unemployment Rate: 5.1%e v 4.8% prior
- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Repurchase Rate unchanged at 0.05% and maintain floor in EUR/CZK at 27.00
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: 2.7%e v 2.4% prelim; Personal Consumption: 2.8%e v 2.6% prelim
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Final GDP Core PCE Q/Q: 1.3%e v 1.3% prelim; GDP Price Index: 1.6%e v 1.6% prelim
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 323Ke v 320K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.88Me v 2.889M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks at Conference in Dayton, Ohio
- 09:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus give press conference on Interest Rates
- (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 5.50%
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 10:00 (US) Feb Pending Home Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -9.0%e v -9.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -$200Me v -$3.2B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:40 (IT) Italy PM Renzi with President Obama
- 11:00 (US) Mar Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 5e v 4 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase U$3.75-4.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (FI) ECB's Liikanen participating in debate on Finland's economy
- 13:00 (CH) SNB's Zurbruegg holds speech at Zurich Money Market Reception
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 14:00 (FR) ECB's Noyer (France) speaks in London
- 14:00 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) in Lisbon




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