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EZ Flash HICP (CPI) on Monday, Also German Retail Sales. Both Could Be Pivotal
|EZ Flash HICP (CPI) on Monday, Also German Retail Sales. Both Could Be Pivotal|
March 31 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: JP- Industrial Output, PMI. CH- KOF Index, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP,.CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI
| EURUSD 1.3755
|| U.S. 2.69% +3bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 141.39
|| Bund 1.53% 0bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6644
|| GILT 2.68% -1bp
| USDJPY 102.80
|| JGB 0.63% 0bp
|| Far East Close: Higher|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output, PMI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI
- On Monday flash EZ March HICP) CPI) will be released and that data could be decisive.
- It is difficult to trust the European Central Bank. We have been getting what appear to be misleading leaks out of the bank, as it appears officials try to trick the markets into weakening the EUR in forex markets. We are sympathetic with the goal, but you can only fool the markets a limited number of times before it back-fires.
- The chatter heading into the ECB meeting this Thursday is that the Eurozone is ready now to combat "disinflation" by moving to negative interest rates. We have been hearing the chatter increasingly recently, but we have heard it all before and the ECB has done nothing. A slight easing of policy would have little impact on the European economy but potentially could be destabilizing for the EUR because of what it signals about concern for growth.
- The news data calendar for the week ahead is active one. From Tuesday on the monthly avalanche of final PMI data will be seen. A few stray reports start to come out on Monday. The Quarterly Japanese Tankan Survey also is released early Tuesday.
- This week also sees monetary policy decisions from Australia, the and the European Central Bank. Key U.S. jobs data are released on Wednesday and Friday. Canadian March employment data are slated for Friday as well
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Tue 31 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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