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EZ Flash HICP (CPI) on Monday, Also German Retail Sales. Both Could Be Pivotal
|EZ Flash HICP (CPI) on Monday, Also German Retail Sales. Both Could Be Pivotal|
March 31 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: JP- Industrial Output, PMI. CH- KOF Index, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP,.CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI
| EURUSD 1.3755
|| U.S. 2.69% +3bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 141.39
|| Bund 1.53% 0bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6644
|| GILT 2.68% -1bp
| USDJPY 102.80
|| JGB 0.63% 0bp
|| Far East Close: Higher|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output, PMI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI
- On Monday flash EZ March HICP) CPI) will be released and that data could be decisive.
- It is difficult to trust the European Central Bank. We have been getting what appear to be misleading leaks out of the bank, as it appears officials try to trick the markets into weakening the EUR in forex markets. We are sympathetic with the goal, but you can only fool the markets a limited number of times before it back-fires.
- The chatter heading into the ECB meeting this Thursday is that the Eurozone is ready now to combat "disinflation" by moving to negative interest rates. We have been hearing the chatter increasingly recently, but we have heard it all before and the ECB has done nothing. A slight easing of policy would have little impact on the European economy but potentially could be destabilizing for the EUR because of what it signals about concern for growth.
- The news data calendar for the week ahead is active one. From Tuesday on the monthly avalanche of final PMI data will be seen. A few stray reports start to come out on Monday. The Quarterly Japanese Tankan Survey also is released early Tuesday.
- This week also sees monetary policy decisions from Australia, the and the European Central Bank. Key U.S. jobs data are released on Wednesday and Friday. Canadian March employment data are slated for Friday as well
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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