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Monday March 31, 2014 - 10:23:24 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: EU CPI falls to multi-year low, Weidmann reiterates EU is not in deflation

Mon, 31 Mar 2014 5:22 AM EST

- (FR) France Stats Agency (INSEE): France 2013 deficit 4.3% of GDP vs. 4.1% target
- (CH) Switzerland's Competition Authority (WEKO) opens probe into possible collusion in fx trading
- (JP) BoJ Gov Kuroda: Reiterates Japan economy continues moderate recovery, long-term JGB yields are stable and low
- Japan Feb Preliminary Industrial Production YoY: -2.3% +0.3%e (largest decline in 8 months but mostly blamed on bad weather)
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) reiterates that Euro Zone was not in deflation; Should not over-react as fall off in inflation likely due to cyclical factors and seen as temporary
- (DE) German Retail Sales come in much better than expected (MoM: +1.3% vs. -0.5%e)
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar flash CPI hits s fresh 4-year low (0.5% vs. 0.6%e). The question is whether this reading is weak enough to prompt action at the April Council meeting

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open higher following gains in Tokyo, Swiss Competition Authority probe into forex has little impact on banks' shares, Month and quarter end trading conditions ahead of key event risks for later this week (including PMIs, ECB meeting and US monthly payrolls), Turkish equities supported by municipal election results.

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,643, DAX +0.2% at 9,609, CAC-40 +0.1% at 4,415, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 10,373, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 21,658, SMI +1% at 8,460, S&P 500 Futures +0.4% at 1,857]

***By Sector***
- Technology [Blinkx BLNX.UK +7% (issued guidance)]
- Financials [ING INGA.NL +2% (issued 2017 targets)]
- Energy [Phoenix Solar PS4.DE +13% (Narrowed FY13 loss)]
- Health Care [Novartis NOVN.CH +2.5% (data presentation on heart failure treatment)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +0.5%, Basic Materials +0.5%, Consumer Cyclical +0.3%, Financials +0.1%, Energy +0.1%, Industrials flat; Utilities -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%, Telecom -0.1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- The Feb German inflation reading last Friday took the sting out of expectation that ECB would take additional measures in the near future to react to weak inflation pressure. The latest comments from the ECB's Weidmann suggested that the current downward pressure on CPI was cyclical and temporary. However, the Euro Zone March flash CPI hits a fresh 4-year low at 0.5%. The question is whether this reading is weak enough to prompt action at the April Council meeting
- The USD/JPY hovered around the 103 handle just ahead of the long-planned sales tax hike implementation on April 1st (goes from 5% to 8%). Japanese manufacturers have been trimming production in anticipation of lower domestic demand from the tax increase.
- The 10-year Italy/German Gov't bond spread moves below 175bps; tightest level since June 2011

***Economic Data***
(JP) Japan Feb Annualized Housing Starts: 919K v 954Ke; Y/Y: 1.0% v 4.8%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: 12.3% v 15.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Retail Sales M/M: +1.3% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 0.8%e
- (FR) France Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (PH) Philippines Feb M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 36.4%
- (CH) Swiss Mar KOF Leading Indicator: 1.99 v 2.05e
- (DE) Denmark Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e
- (TR) Turkey Q4 GDP WDA Q/Q: 0.5% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.3% prior; GDP Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.1%e
- (EU) ECB 1.42B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 205M prior; 28.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 27.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Feb Net Consumer Credit: 0.6B v 0.7Be; Net Lending: 1.7B v 1.5Be
- (UK) Feb Mortgage Approvals: 70.3K v 75.3Ke ; first MoM decline since Feb 2013
- (UK) Feb M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.7% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: +0.7% v -0.2% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 3.0% v 1.5%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -2.3% v +4.5%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.3% v +5.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e (lowest since Nov 2009); CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI NIC incl. tobacco M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI Harmonized M/M: 2.1% v +2.3%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4%e

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.9% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Retail Sales M/M: No est v 6.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 6.8% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell bonds
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2016, 2021, 2023 and 2042 bonds
- 06:30 (IN) India Feb Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 16.5B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Mar Inflation Expectations: No est v 0.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Q4 Current Account Balance: No est v -2.1B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Trade Balance (ZAR): -2.1Be v -17.1B prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Manufacturing Index Y/Y: -0.1%e v -1.4% prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.1% prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Total Copper Production: No est v 473.4K tons prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.5%e v 6.8% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces of for its Thursday auction
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan GDP M/M: +0.4%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.0B total in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (US) Mar ISM Milwaukee: No est v 48.59 prior
- 09:10 (UK) BOE's Bailey
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for Bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (US) Mar Chicago Purchasing Manager: 58.5e v 59.8 prior
- 09:55 (US) Fed's Yellen speaks at Development Conference in Chicago
- 10:00 (US) Annual Wholesale Inventory and Sales Revisions
- 10:30 (US) Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: No est v 0.3 prior
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.492T prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills




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