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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets muted ahead of ECB rate decision; Greece indicates a return to markets very soon

 
Thu, 03 Apr 2014 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Overall price action was muted moves came as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the monthly ECB decision
- (FR) France Fin Min Sapin: Want to renegotiate the speed in which France cuts its budget deficit to EU limits; Promises no tax increases as new measures to be financed by savings
- (CN) PBoC Official Xu Nuojin: Credit easing consistent with 'prudent monetary policy'
- (DE) German Defense Ministry returns 1.3B of unused funds back to Finance Ministry - financial press
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: Reiterates see a small "trial and error" bond sale by June and then another offering later this year - financial press
- (UK) BOE's McCafferty: Reiterates that interest rates are seen rising gradually but not expecting any significant rate increase for some time- financial press interview
- VOD.UK: Confirms UK expansion plan, to spend 1.0B on networks and services in 2014
- (GR) Greece said to line up banks for 2.0B 5-yr bond, could occur in April

***Equities***
-Market Focal Points: Equity markets open mixed ahead of ECB rate decision, Finland tire maker Nokian weighed down by profit warning, Shanghai equities decline amid mini stimulus announcement, Household products firm McBride declines on profit warning, Just East rises over 9% in debut, Euro Zone services PMI data mixed, UK March PMIs continue to ease, Corporate issuance picks up ahead of ECB meeting.

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%, , FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,672, DAX -0.1% at 9,617, CAC-40 flat at 4,430, IBEX-35 +0.8% at 10,522, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 21,818, SMI +0.2% at 8,526, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,883]

***By Sector***
- Financials [St. Modwen SMP.UK -3% (share placement), Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -1.5% (broker commentary)]
Consumer Discretionary [McBride MCB.UK -11% (profit warning)]
- Health Care [Stada SAZ.DE -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Nokian Tire NRE1V.FI -5% (profit warning), Jenoptik JEN.DE -4.5% (share placement)]
- Technology [Rexel RXL.FR -2.5% (share placement)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities -0.8%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Financials -0.3%, Telecom -0.2%, Technology -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.1% Energy -0.1%; Industrials +0.1%, Basic Materials flat]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Overall price action was muted moves came as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the monthly ECB decision
- Continue speculation on Thursday's ECB meeting. The most recent press reports noted that it would likely entail an intense debate in inflation outlook but had no clear consensus at current time. The EUR/USD was little changed in the session below the 1.38 handle.
- The USD/JPY was edging towards the 104 area. As investors were looking for carry opportunities. The Nikkei225 Index hit a 3-week high above 15,000 aided by the weak yen

***Economic Data***
- - (IE) Ireland Mar Investec Services PMI: 60.7 v 57.5 prior; Composite PMI: 59.0 v 55.0 prior
- (IN) India Mar HSBC India Services PMI: 47.5 v 48.8 prior; Composite PMI: 48.9 v 50.3 prior
- (RU) Russia Mar HSBC Russia Services PMI: 47.7 v 50.4e; Composite PMI: No est v 50.2 prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar PMI Services: 53.5 v 56.5e; seventh straight month of expansion
- (HU) Hungary Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 6.7% v 5.2%e
- (TR) Turkey Mar CPI M/M: 1.1% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.1%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 9.3% v 8.8%e
- (TR) Turkey Mar PPI M/M: 0.7 v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 12.3% v 12.4% prior
- (EU) ECB 265M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.3B prior; 27.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 32.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ZA) South Africa Mar HSBC/Markit Service PMI: 50.2 v v 51.5 prior
- (ES) Spain Mar Markit Spain Services PMI: 54.0 v 53.3e (5th straight month of expansion); Composite PMI: 54.2 v 53.7e
- (IT) Italy Mar Services PMI: 49.5 v 52.3e v 52.9 prior (4th contraction in five months); Composite PMI: 51.1 v 53.4 prior
- (FR) France Mar Final Services PMI: 51.5 v 51.4e (confirms first growth in 5 months and highest since Jan 2012); Composite PMI: 51.8 v 51.6e
- (DE) Germany Mar Final Services PMI: 53.0 v 54.0e (confirms 11th straight month of expansion but moves off 3 1/2 year highs); Composite PMI: 54.3 v 55.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final Services PMI: 52.2 v 52.4e ((confirms 7th straight month of expansion and highest final reading since June 2011); Composite PMI: 53.1 v 53.2e
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Mar World Food Prices: 212.8 v 208.1 prior
- (TW) Tawian Mar Forex Reserves: $419.2B (record level) v $417.9B
- (UK) Mar Services PMI: 57.6 v 58.2e (lowest since Jun 2013); Composite PMI: 57.6 v 58.1e
- (EU) Euro Area Mar PMI Services: 53.5 v 53.9 prior; Composite PMI: 54.1 v 54.5 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Retail Sales M/M: +0.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e
- (IS) Iceland Mar Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 1.1B v 4.0B prior
- (CY) Cyprus Mar CPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.3% v -2.6% prior


***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (EU) OECD Economic Surveys of EU and Euro Area
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Mar 28th: No est v $486.6B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior
- 07:30 (US) Mar Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 41.8K prior; Y/Y: No est v -24.4% prior
- 07:30 (US) Apr RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 51.8 prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Key Rates Unchanged: Expected to leave main Refi rate unchanged at 0.25%; Expected to leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%; Expected to leave Marginal Lending Facility unchanged at 0.75%
- 08:30 (US) Feb Trade Balance: -$38.5Be v -$39.1B prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 319Ke v 311K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.84Me v 3.823M prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Int'l Merchandise Trade: +C$200Me v -C$180M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi holds post rate decision press conference
- 09:00 (US) Treasury refunding announcement for 3- year, 10-year and 30-year notes
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Services PMI: No est v 50.8 prior; Composite: No est v 50.8 prior
- 09:45 (US) Mar Final Markit Services PMI: 55.7e v 55.5 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 55.8 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.5e v 51.6 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Consumer Confidence Index: 85.5e v 84.5 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.9-1.15B in bonds
- 11:00 (NL) Netherlands PM Rutte speaks in Berlin

 

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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