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Thursday April 3, 2014 - 15:21:02 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Draghi Holds Pat


Thu, 03 Apr 2014 11:00 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Mar 28th: $484.0B v $486.6B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Feb Electricity Production Y/Y: -0.6% v +1.2% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: 2.2 v 2.8% prior
- (US) Mar Challenger Job Cuts: 34.4 v 41.8K prior; Y/Y: -30.2% v -24.4% prior
- (US) Apr RBC Consumer Outlook Index: 50.0 v 51.8 prior
- (EU) ECB left its Key Rates Unchanged: Main Refi rate unchanged at 0.25%; Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%; Marginal Lending Facility unchanged at 0.75%
- (US) Feb Trade Balance: -$42.3B v -$38.5Be
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 326K v 319Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.836M v 2.84Me
- (CA) Canada Feb Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$0.3B v +C$0.2Be
- (BR) Brazil Mar Services PMI: 51.0 v 50.8 prior; Composite: 51.0 v 50.8 prior
- (US) Mar Final Markit Services PMI: 55.3 v 55.7e; Composite PMI: 55.7 v 55.8 prelim
- (US) Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.1 v 53.5e
- (MX) Mexico Mar Consumer Confidence Index: 88.8 v 85.5e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -74 bcf vs. -73 to -77 bcf expected range

- The DJIA briefly rose to fresh intraday all-time highs above 16,588 in the early going this morning, however equities were never particularly strong and have dipped right into the red mid morning. As of writing, the DJIA is -0.07, the S&P500 is down 0.13% and the Nasdaq is down 0.36%.

- Foolish hopes for ECB action were dashed this morning, as the governing council left rates unchanged and ECB President Draghi stayed pretty close to all of his regular talking points regarding inflation and scope for more action. Draghi conceded that the council did discuss potential rate cuts and a potential QE program. But on inflation, he doggedly repeated that while the March Eurozone inflation report was a surprise, the ECB still expects higher inflation in the months to come. EUR/USD traded in a 1.3800-1.3700 range during the press conference, towards the lower end of this range as Draghi admitted that he was geninuely surprised by the weak March inflation reading. Dealers see 1.3690 as key support in pair with Euro sell stops building lower than this level, and also discussed a potential H&S top formation with 250 pips objection if there is an hourly close below 1.3690.

- The March ISM non-manufacturing index reversed much but not all of its 2.4-point February decline, brining the March figure to a lukewarm 53.1, which is still below its long-term average. The Employment component remains several points shy of the 56 reading seen in January. The initial jobless claims data rose more than expected in the week of March 29, but the new claims data on balance were generally positive.

- CACI International is off its worst levels in the early going, down 3.7% after declining more than 8% in the premarket. The government computer services firm lowered its FY14 guidance as a result of continued uncertainty about funding levels and continuing spending reductions related to the drawdown of forces in Afghanistan. Note that BAH is also down 2.5% in sympathy.

- Shares of Google are up 3% this morning as the company's plan to split its stock and create a new class of non-voting capital stock becomes effective. The shares will be distributed via a stock dividend to all existing stockholders on a one-for-one basis, effectively accomplishing a two-for-one stock split-something many of our investors have long asked for. The non-voting shares will be available for corporate uses, like equity-based employee compensation.

- Pandora rose as much as 7% in the early going after the firm's March audience metrics showed active listeners grew 8% y/y to 75.3M v 69.5M y/y. This is still a shadow of the growth rate seen in years past. However the stock is likely also benefitting from rehashes of journalists yesterday gaming out scenarios under which Apple might acquire the company.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.9-1.15B in bonds
- 11:00 (US) Treasury refunding announcement for 3- year, 10-year and 30-year notes
- 11:00 (NL) Netherlands PM Rutte speaks in Berlin

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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