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Friday April 4, 2014 - 10:05:03 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Markets await US Payrolls; Greece headed for an upgrade?

Fri, 04 Apr 2014 5:22 AM EST

- (US) Anticipation of a strong, USD-positive US payroll report expecting it to rebound from weather depressed readings
- (US) Fed's Fisher (FOMC voter, hawk): Guidance on future rate hikes may not be possible; at current reduction QE3 will be done by October
- (CN) China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): 2013 Current Account was $182.8B; to see a certain amount of current account surplus in 2014; 2013 current account surplus $182.8B
- (GR) There is speculation that Moody's could upgrade Greece's sovereign rating today - Greek Press
- (EU) Former ECB Official Bini Smaghi: Markets now prepared for QE to occur

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets initially show muted reaction to Draghi QE comments amid cautious trading ahead of US payrolls report, SMI underperforms on Zurich Insurance ex-dividend, Remy Cointreau supported by takeover speculation.

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,675, DAX +0.3% at 9,659, CAC-40 +0.3% at 4,460, IBEX-35 flat at 10,586, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 22,042, SMI -0.5% 8,480, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,886]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Discretionary [Remy Cointreau RCO.FR +4% (takeover speculation), Pearson PSON.UK +1.5% (broker commentary), EasyJet EZJ.UK +1.5% (March traffic +4.8%), Fiat F.IT +1% (broker commentary); Marks & Spencer MKS.UK -1% (broker commentary), Tesco TSCO.UK -0.5% (speculation related to new CFO)]
Financials [Talanx TLX.DE +2% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Fresenius Medical Care FME.DE -1% (issued long-term targets)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Basic Materials +0.7%, Energy +0.4%, Financials +0.2%, Consumer Cyclical +0.1%, Industrials +0.1%; Telecom -0.4%, Technology -0.3%, Utilities -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- A day after ECB Draghi hinted that the ECB was open to possible QE had the EUR/USD dangling above a pivotal hourly support of 1.3690. For now dealers seem to not that despite the talk there has yet to be any action which could keep the EUR supported for now. As a result of the ECB press conference dealers noted that Spanish 5-year Govt bond yield was now lower than its US counterpart (first time since 2007) and the 10-year Spanish/German Gov't bond spread was below 160bps,tightest since Oct 2010. Dealers continued to view 1.3690 as key support in pair with Euro sell stops building below. Potential H&S top formation with 250 pips objection if hourly close below 1.3690. Anticipation of a strong, USD-positive US payroll report was possible as the data series rebounds from weather depressed readings. A strong payroll number could provide divergence between Fed and ECB policy paths.
- The key focus today is the Mar US Non-farm payrolls. The favorite currency pair to play on such days would be the USD/JPY. Some dealers are positioned long USDJPY long for payrolls

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Mar 29th (y/y): +5.9% v +6.5% prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Factory Orders M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.8%e
- (UK) Mar Halifax House Prices M/M: -1.1% v +0.6%e; 3M/Y: 8.7% v 9.4%e
- (CZ) Czech Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.1% v 6.0%e
- (EU) ECB 203M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 265M prior; 26.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 27.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany Mar Construction PMI: 52.5 v 53.6 prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb Service Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 0.7%e
- (SE) Sweden Feb Industrial Production M/M: 2.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Feb Industrial Orders M/M: +3.1 v -13.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.6% prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 172.4K v 193.7K tons prior
- (UK) Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: 17.7% v 3.0% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Retail PMI: 49.2 v 48.5 prior
- (DE) Germany Mar Markit Retail PMI: 50.2 v 52.1 prior
- (FR) France Mar Retail PMI: 50.0 v 48.4 prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Retail PMI: 46.5 v 43.1 prior
- (GR) Greece Jan Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.9% v -6.1% prior; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -4/3% v -6.7% prior

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (SK) Slovakia Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (GR) Greece Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (EU) EU Foreign and Defense Ministers hold Meeting in Athens
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 2.0Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (IN) Weekly India Forex Reserves
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:30 (US) Mar Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +200Ke v +175K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +200Ke v +162K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +7Ke v +6K prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar Unemployment Rate: 6.6%e v 6.7% prior;
Underemployment Rate: No est v 12.6% prior; Change in Household Employment: +200Ke v +42K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 63.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.2% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.4e v 34.2 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Net Change in Employment: +22.5Ke v -7.0K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.0%e v 7.0% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v K+18.9 prior Part Time Employment Change: No est v -25.9K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.2% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Vehicle Production: No est v 281.5K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 259.3K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 28.8K prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Mar Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 59.0e v 57.2 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 57.8 prior




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