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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Choppy Trading Follows March Jobs Report, Nasdaq Choking


Fri, 04 Apr 2014 11:06 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Feb Industrial Production M/M: +4.9% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: +2.8% v -2.6% prior
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Mar 28th: $303.7B v $298.6B prior
- (RU) Russia Mar CPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 6.9% v 6.8%e; CPI YTD: 2.3% v 2.2%e
- (RU) Russia Mar CPI Core M/M: 0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 5.9%e
- (US) Mar Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +192K v +200Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +192K v +200Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -1K v +7Ke
- (US) Mar Unemployment Rate: 6.7% v 6.6%e; Underemployment Rate: 12.7% v 12.6% prior; Change in Household Employment: +476K v +200Ke; Labor Force Participation Rate: 63.2% v 63.0% prior
- (US) Mar Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.3%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5 v 34.4e
- (CA) Canada Mar Net Change in Employment: +42.9K v +22.5Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 7.0%e; Full Time Employment Change: +12.8K v K+18.9 prior Part Time Employment Change: +30.1K v -25.9K prior; Participation Rate: 66.2% v 66.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil Mar Vehicle Production: K v 281.5K prior; Vehicle Sales: 271.2K v 259.3K prior; Vehicle Exports: 240.8K v 28.8K prior
- (CA) Canada Mar Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 55.2 v 59.0e; PMI Unadj: 61.8 v 57.8 prior
- (MX) Mexico Feb Leading Indicators M/M: -0.4% v -0.1% prior

- The March jobs report was a mixed bag of contrasting signals, although it did show private sector jobs have returned to their January 2008 peak. Trading has been very choppy post report, with fresh record highs seen for the DJIA and the S&P 500, even as the benchmark yield came in six basis points. Meanwhile, momentum tech stocks are suffering and dragging the Nasdaq deeper into the red after yesterday's terrible performance. As of writing, the DJIA and S&P are off their highs, up 0.10% and 0.26%, respectively, while the Nasdaq is down 1.11%.

- Coming into the March jobs reports, there was a general feeling that the numbers would outperform expectations. This did not come to pass and both the +192K NFP and +192K private payrolls were a hair below expectations. However the February NFP was revised to +197K from +175K, putting the average monthly growth over the past three months at a healthy +178k. Many analysts were concerned about the flat hourly earnings component (they grew 0.4% in February) and the continuing weakness in underemployment. Both issues were cited by Yellen at her post-FOMC decision press conference as reasons for rates to remain low for an extended period, so this bad news can be considered good news for keeping Fed support in place.

- Press reports out this morning suggested that the ECB has modeled up to 1T worth of bond purchases in a possible QE program. However, the ECB's test models showed mixed results and indicated that bond purchases would only raise inflation by 0.2-0.8%. The report hinted that officials at the ECB are more inclined to move toward credit easing policies. Note also that the ECB's Constancio said that at this week's meeting, the council did not discuss whether a potential QE program would buy government bonds or private assets. During yesterday's post rate-decision press conference, ECB's Draghi said a potential ECB QE program would be less problematic if it were focused on private debt instruments.

- Shares of dry bulk shipping name Genco nearly doubled in value this morning just after the open, and gave up much of their gains within minutes on a short squeeze trade. Genco is seeking to avert bankruptcy and needs reach an agreement to restructure its debt by April 4 to keep new accords with lenders in place. Part of the enthusiasm was clearly from some traders assuming a final deal had been reached, after the firm disclosed it had waivers from some of its lenders last night.

- Just four months after closing its $1.75 billion acquisition of Agila Specialities, generic drug maker Mylan is eyeing another takeover candidate, Sweden's generic drug maker Meda AB. The board of Meda acknowledged that it had considered a bid from Mylan and rejected it and terminated all discussions with the company. Mylan indicated it continues to look for takeover candidates. Shares of MYL are up 6% on the deal news.

***Looking Ahead***
- (SK) Slovakia Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (GR) Greece Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (EU) EU Foreign Ministers hold Meeting in Athens
- (EU) EU Defense Ministers hold Meeting in Athens
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Minutes
- (RU) Russia Q1 Preliminary Current Account Balance: $26.5Be v $8.9B prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Mar PPI M/M: 0.6%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
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