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U.S. Jobs Data Disappoints Again. Slow Week for News Data.
|U.S. Jobs Data Disappoints Again. Slow Week for News Data.|
April 7, 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: JP- Leading Indicators. Europe: CH- CPI, DE- Industrial Output
| EURUSD 1.3705
|| U.S. 2.73% -3bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 141.53
|| Bund 1.55% -5bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6579
|| GILT 2.69% -7bp
| USDJPY 103.27
|| JGB 0.64% -1bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Lead Indicators, CH- CPI, DE- Industrial Output
- The U.S. March employment data were yet another disappointment. There had had been expectations when the February data were being released that the March data would see a sharp recovery as the impact of the difficult winter in much of the U.S. started to work its way out of the system. Furthermore, other data which tend to be good predictors of the data had been pointing to a stronger report..
- So when the the jobs gain was only 192K the markets reacted badly. For example, the yield on the 10-yr yield fell from 2.80% before the data to 2.73% by the close. Traders felt the data ran the risk of postponing a Fed tightening to further into the future.
- Also,The ECB made no policy changes on Thursday. The bank has a history of being quick to tighten and slow to ease, and that has not changed. It will run the Eurozone into the ground before it reacts to developing deflation.
- At some point this could adversely impact the EUR and or trigger social unrest in some of the more depressed economies. Any hint of a policy easing could impact the EUR immediately, because it would confirm the view held by many that the ECB is out of touch with the economies of Eurozone nations other than Germany.
- After a very busy news week, the data calendar slows don in the week ahead. Highlights include central bank meetings in Japan and the United Kingdom. Other key items include the Australian Employment data and the University of Michigan Survey
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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