User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday April 7, 2014 - 03:31:56 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 07-Apr-2014 -03330 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
The Dow (16412.71, -0.96%) came down from 16600 after a slightly disappointing payroll data. For any immediate bullishness to survive, it must bounce from 16350-300, otherwise the possibility of a retesting of 16000 comes into play.

The Dax (9695.77, +0.70%) is stalling near our interim resistance zone of 9600-9700 before it can reach 9900. A failure to firmly break above 9700 may generate weakness and it may return 9400-9350 levels.

The Shanghai (2058.83, +0.74%) remains in a consolidation mode. Weakness will be confirmed below 2030-20 and strength will be confirmed above 2080-85 only.

Nikkei (14861.73, -1.34%) has returned below 15000 contrary to our expectations and now, clues for the next direction will be available from the price action at the support band of 14800-600.

Nifty (6694.35, -0.62%) has ended last week on a tired note but it is yet to confirm the weakness. We are waiting for a break below 6675-60 as the sign for confirming a fall which can take Nifty down to 6580-60 levels.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1302.98) has risen sharply from support near 1285 and is currently trading above 1300. If this sustains above this level, it may target 1325. Overall it is ranged sideways since May’13.

Silver (19.904) is stable and ranged above crucial support near 19.6. Unless a break below this, it may continue to remain ranged or rise up towards 20.5. Bearish indication may only come if it breaks below 19.6. The Gold-Silver ratio (65.398) is highly fluctuating in the 65.5-64.1 region and may fall to 63.9 before bouncing off from there. But we cannot negate the possibility of a rise to 66-66.50 just now.

Copper (3. 0060) has fallen to 3 making an intraday low of 2.9765. Bears are still on the cards and may continue to dominate the prices in the near term. While that happen movements could range in the 2.95-3.05 in the near term.

Brent (105.95) has fallen from a high of 107.04 made on Friday. It is in downtrend since 3rd March 2014 and while below 108 its movement may range in the 108-105 regions. 108 seems to be the target for near term.

Nymex WTI (100.84) is trading lower as the resistance near 102.08 seems to hold well for now. It needs to break this resistance to move up higher to 103. Till then it may trade in the 99-102 region.

CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (80.42) broke above the range of 79.90-80.35 to reach our initial target of 80.50 and now, holding above 80.30-25, may reach 80.75 and even 81.

The Euro (1.3700) is testing the support of 1.37-1.3675, below which the bearish momentum may increase. The next important support comes at 1.3600.

Dollar-Yen (103.25) slipped after facing selling pressure from the upper end of the 10-week long range of 101-104. Further upward possibilities survive till 102.70 but from a broader perspective, the sideways consolidation continues.

The Euro-Yen Cross (141.46) has returned below 142 contrary to our expectation and may test the major support band of 140.50-139.50 now before any bounce comes.

Pound (1.6572) is in a corrective mode after achieving our initial target of 1.6650. Now a further rise to 1.67-1.6750 may be expected holding above the major support at 1.6520-1.6500.

Aussie (0.9285) has hit a 5-month high at 0.9307 and looks well on course towards our medium term target of 0.9380-0.94. Any correction now should be limited to 0.9150-0.91.

For Dollar-Rupee (60.08), there are two possible scenarios now – (a) either Dollar Rupee breaks below 59.60-50 to reach 59.00-58.80 or (b) it finds buying again at the lower levels of 59.70-60, keeping it range-bound in 59.50-60.50 for a few sessions. Now both the possibilities suggest selling at the higher levels keeping with our medium term bearish stance.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10 Yr (2.72%) and 5Yr (1.70%) fell after a lower than expected NFP data flattening the yield curve yet again. A further rise towards 2.90% and 1.85% can only be expected on a break above 2.75% and 1.75% respectively.

The German-US 10yr spread (-1.17%) and the 2Yr spread (-0.26%) remained stable and the 2Yr spread is testing support at current levels as the Euro (1.3700) dropped further. The German 10Yr (1.55%) also saw a drop and can target 1.50% while below 1.60%.

The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.10%) fell towards the support near 2.05%-2.10% with a drop in the Dollar -Yen (103.25). The Japan 10Yr (0.62%) has come off a bit from our resistance zone of 0.65%-0.67% before the BOJ Meeting tomorrow. The 10-5Yr yield differential (0.43%) remained stable and is testing support near current levels.

The India-US 10Yr spread (6.34%) has broken above the resistance near 6.25% with the sudden fall in the US yields. The 10Yr GOI (9.07%) saw a sharp rise and is trading near our target of 9.10%. A further rise beyond 9.10% can be expected with the widening of the India-US 10YR spread.

DATA TODAY

No major data release today.

FRIDAY'S DATA

US NFP
...Expected 196 K ...Previous 197 K ...Actual 192 K

US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 7.00 % ...Previous 7.00 % ...Actual 6.70 %

CA Labour Force
...Expected 25.30 K ...Previous -7.0 K ...Actual 42.90 K

CA PMI
...Expected 58.30 ...Previous 57.20 ...Actual 55.20

 

 

Follow:

Share on facebookFacebookShare on twitterTwitterShare on linkedinLinkedIn

Our Track Record

Click here to enlarge


Our Oct'13 Longterm forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please mail us.

In order to read our previous forecasts please Click Here.


Track the ongoing actual releases in our online Economic Calendar.

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 21 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105