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Monday April 7, 2014 - 10:19:53 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Several large deals announced in Europe; Greece "not in a rush" to return to markets


Mon, 07 Apr 2014 5:24 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- LG.FR: Holcim and Lafarge confirm merger of equals; expected to face intense regulatory scrutiny; not expected to close until H1 2015
- VIV.FR: Vivendi has selected the Altice/Numericable offer in sale of SFR unit; Altice will have to raise 4.7B

- (UK) BOE shadow MPC: Votes 6 to 3 in favor of 50bps rate hike at April meeting - financial press
- Russia's Norilsk Nickel reported FY13 results much weaker y/y and lower than market expectations.
- (EU) ECB's Nowotny (Austria): ECB is watching inflation closely; sees no immediate need to act; Personally think best course of action, when needed, would be purchases of asset backed securities (ABS)
(GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: Not in a rush to return to markets; disputes press speculation that Greece could return as soon as this month.
- World Bank cut its 2014 forecast for China GDP to 7.6% but maintains 2015 growth at 7.5%
- Unrest/protest flares in three cities in eastern Ukraine
- Plethora of ECB speakers today hopefully shedding some light on the intentions of the ECB in respect of non-standard policies

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points: Equity markets opened broadly lower following a sell-off in high flying tech stocks in the US Friday afternoon. Large deals dominated the weekend news after Holcim agreed to buy Lafarge and Numericable won the bidding for Vivendi's SFR unit.

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.5% at 6,661, DAX -1.0% at 9,596, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,460, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 10,652, FTSE MIB -0.7% at 22,025, SMI -0.8% 8,437, S&P 500 Futures -0.3% at 1,852]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Discretionary [Vivendi VIV.FR +1.3% (To sell SFR unit)]
- Telecom [Numericable NUM.FR +14%, Altice ATC.NL +8.5% (to purchase SFR unit from Vivendi), Iliad ILD.FR -6.4% (on Bouygues lost bid for SFR)
- Industrials [Bouygues EN.FR -5.2% (loses SFR bid), Holcim HOLN.CH +2.3%, Lafarge LG.FR +2.9% (Holcim and Lafarge agree to merge), Alfa Laval ALFA.SE +4.7% (To acquire Frank Mohn)

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- FX markets were quite quiet in Europe.
- The session was expected to hear from a plethora of ECB speakers today hopefully shedding some light on the intentions of the ECB in respect of non-standard policies. The 1.3690 support level continued to hold.
- BoJ began its two-day policy board meeting with a decision due on Tuesday. The board was widely expected to maintain the monetary policy target as there were no signs that downside risks to growth and inflation were increasing at this point. The yen was former in Asian as the Nikkei225 Index sold off (following the US sell-off last Friday). USD/JPY hovering just above the 103 handle.

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Feb Preliminary Leading Index CI: 108.5 v 108.8e; Coincident Index: 113.4 v 113.4e
- (DE) Germany Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.7%e
- (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -70M v -478M prior
- (ZA) South Africa Mar Gross Reserves: $49.5B v $50.2Be; Net Reserves: $45.0B v $45.3Be
- (PH) Philippines Mar Foreign Reserves: $79.8B v $80.3B prior
- (AU) Australia Mar Foreign Reserves: A$62.2B v A$51.8B prior; largest rise in almost
- (HU) Hungary Mar FX Reserves: 35.5B v 33.8B prior
- (CH) Swiss Mar Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 437.9B v 434.5Be
- (ES) Spain Feb Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: +3.1% v -0.1% prior; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: 2.8% v 1.7%e
- (CZ) Czech Feb Nominal Trade Balance (CZK): 34.0B v 44.6B prior; National Trade Balance: 13.6B v 21.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Feb Industrial Output Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.5%e; Construction Output: 6.1% v 5.0% prior
- (DK) Denmark Feb Industrial Production M/M: 1.4% v 0.8%e
- (AT) Austria Mar Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.6% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.3% prior
- (EU) ECB 222M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 203M prior; 25.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 26.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Mar CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.2%e
- (SE) Sweden Feb Household Consumption M/M: 0.6% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 0.9% prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar Budget Balance (SEK): -2.9BB v 42.2B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Mar Trade Balance: $2.0B v $3.4Be; Exports Y/Y: 2.0% v 0.7%e; Imports Y/Y: +7.5% v -0.3%e
- (NO) Norway Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 5.2% v 2.5% prior
- (NO) Norway Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.7% prior
- (IT) Italy Q4 YTD Deficit to GDP Ratio: 2.8 v 3.4% prior
- (UK) Mar Lloyds Employment Confidence: -2 v -2 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Sentix Investor Confidence: 13.9e v 13.9 prior
- (SG) Singapore Mar Foreign Reserves: $272.9B v $274.0B prior
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Mar Balance-Sheet Aggregates: ECB funding to Italian banks: 199.7B v 214.4B prior
- (MY) Malaysia Mar Foreign Reserves: $130.2B v $129.6B prior

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (IR) Iran, World Powers Hold Nuclear Talks in Vienna
- (EU) EFSF sends request for proposal to sell debt in week of April 7th
- 05:30 (AT) ECB's Nowotny (Austria) speaks at conference on EU in Vienna
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell combined 2.0-4.0B in 3-Month and 9-Month Bills
- 06:30 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) in Amsterdam
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 1.6%e v 0.9% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Feb Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.1%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 1.6% prior (revised from 1.4%)
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Official Reserves: No est v $104.4B prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Real Wage M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) in EU parliament
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces amount in next 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BoC) Q1 Senior Loan Officer Survey: No est v -10.8 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: No est v 29 prior;
- 11:00 (US Fed to purchase $0.9-1.15B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:45 (US) Fed's Bullard in LA
- 15:00 (US) Feb Consumer Credit: $14.2Be v $13.7B prior

 

 

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