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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Emerging market currencies rally against the Greenback; Draghi reiterates plans to remain accommodative


Tue, 08 Apr 2014 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (EU) ECB's Draghi: Reiterates ECB policy to remain accommodative for now
- Ford Reports March China sales 103.8K units, +28% y/y
- German traded Suedzucker reported FY results lower y/y; guided FY15 lower on both Op and Rev
- (FR) France Labor Min Rebsamen: Deficit cuts are negotiable; trajectory is what matters most
- NYT Op Ed: Does not see it likely that the US will export natural gas to Europe any time soon to serve short or medium term needs brought on by Russia situation
- MSFT: China MOFCOM approves Nokia deal with the condition that the use of certain patents will not be banned
- ILD.FR: Free unit said to be in talks to acquire Bouygues Telecom - French Press
- RIA.FR: Sopra confirms bid for Steria at 22/share in stock (40% premium, implied deal value about 737M)
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) asks govt to increase risk for Oil Fund (sovereign fund); to increase the limit related to volatility to 2 pct points from 1 pct point.

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) leaves policy unchanged (as expected) and makes no mention of any expansion to its Quantitative/Qualitative easing (QQE) following sales tax hike
- Chinese stocks higher on combination of valuation and hope for more stimuli
- UK Feb Industrial Production data handily beats expectations (MoM: 0.9% v 0.3%e)

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open mixed following sharp declines seen on Monday as peripheral indices lag, Technology shares remain heavy (Blinkx -2.5%, Infineon -2.5%), IT-related M&A (Sopra and Steria), Cautious outlook weighs on shares of Suedzucker, Mixed trading in the European banking sector, Shanghai Composite outperforms following recent holiday.

- Indices [Stoxx50 flat, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,598, DAX -0.1% at 9,502, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,431, IBEX-35 -0.5% at 10,555, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 21,945, SMI +0.2% at 8,425, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,839]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Discretionary [Stocks Spirits STCK.UK -7% (share placement), Carrefour CA.FR -1.5%(share placement)]
- Industrials [Saint Gobain SGO.FR -2.5% (share placement), Sacyr SYV.ES -1.5% (capital raise speculation)]
- Technology [Blinkx BLNX.UK -3% (tracks recent weakness in Tech stocks), Infineon IFX.DE -3% (broker commentary); Nokia NOK1V.FI +2.5% (regulatory approval in China]
- Consumer Staples [Suedzucker SZU.DE -15% (cautious outlook)]

- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology -0.7%, Industrials -0.3%, Financials -0.2% ;Utilities +0.7%, Energy +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%,Telecom flat, Basic Materials flat]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- The USD was softer against the bulk of all currencies (Major, commodity-related and emerging markets).
- Various emerging market currencies were hitting fresh 2014 highs against the USD (South African Rand and Turkish Lira)
- Euro zone bond yields edged higher after ECB policymakers recently stressed that that any move to print money to raise ultra-low inflation was still a long way off.

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) left its Reference Rate unchanged at 7.50%, as expected
- (JP) Japan Mar Bankruptcies: -11.0% v -14.6% prior
- (JP) Japan Mar Eco Watchers Current Survey: 57.9 v 53.3e; Outlook Survey: 34.7 v 39.5e
- (CH) Swiss Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FR) Bank of France Mar Business Sentiment: 99 v 98 prior
- (FR) France Feb YTD Budget Balance: -25.7B v -12.7B prior
- (FR) France Feb Trade Balance: -3.4B v -5.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v 8.4%e
- (TR) Turkey Feb Industrial Production M/M: 4.9% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v +4.6%e
- (HU) Hungary Feb Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 1.6% v 3.2% prior; Y/Y: 8.1% v 5.9%e
- (EU) ECB 162M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 222M prior; 30.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 25.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Feb Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.0% v -0.1% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar International Reserves: $57.5B v $57.3B prior
- (UK) Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.2%e
- (UK) Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.1%e

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IR) Iran, World Powers Hold Nuclear Talks in Vienna
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen in NY
- (PT) Bank of Portugal releases Data on Banks
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Feb leading indicators: No est v 100.7 prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Zero Bonds
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 2.0B in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.121% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.80x prior (Mar 4th 2014)
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Mar CPI M/M: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 3.2% prior;
CPI Core M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior
- 07:30 (US) Mar NFIB Small Business Optimism: 92.5e v 91.4 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Mar Housing Starts: 190.0Ke v 191.9K prior (revised from 192.1K)
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Building Permits M/M: -2.6%e v 8.5% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Gross Fixed Investment: -1.2%e v +0.7% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:00 (IT) Italy PM Renzi economic and financial program
- 09:00 (US) IMF updates its World Economic Outlook
- 10:00 (UK) Mar NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb JOLTs Job Openings: 4.02Me v 3.974M prior
- 10:00 (MX) Weekly Mexico International Reserves
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $25B in 4-Week Bills
- 11:45 (CA) Canada Min Rickford speaks at Economic Club
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude
- 12:30 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) speaks in Berlin
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota to speak in Rochester, MN
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 3-Year Notes
- 14:45 (US) Fed's Plosser on bank regulation in Philadelphia
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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