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Friday April 11, 2014 - 15:45:15 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: JPMorgan Falls Short, Equity Sell-off On Hold

Fri, 11 Apr 2014 11:11 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e April 4th: $306.7B v $303.7B prior
- (IN) India Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: -1.9% v +0.9%e
- (PL) Poland Feb Current Account Balance: -0.6B v -0.5Be; Trade Balance: 0.2B v 0.5Be
- (US) Mar PPI Final Demand M/M: 0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.1%e
- (US) Mar PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.1%e
- (MX) Mexico Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.0%e; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 2.2%e
- (US) Apr Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 82.6 v 81.0e

- US equities zigzagged through the first hour and a half of cash trading in negative territory. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped briefly below 2.620% before easing a bit, while the dollar has checked its declines. The VIX is back around 16. As of writing, the DJIA and S&P500 are down 0.25% a piece, while the Nasdaq is flat on the day.

- Both the euro and the yen have strengthened all week long despite the weakness in equities, spurring comments from analysts that the risk off/strong dollar correlation seems to be breaking down. This morning the dollar is a bit firmer, EUR/USD rose into the 1.3900 handle and leveled off and USD/JPY moved off lows around 101.4. Note that there were unsubstantiated rumors of a BoJ rate check circulating earlier.

- The preliminary April University of Michigan confidence reading beat expectations and rose to 82.6 from the final March reading of 80.8, the highest rate in the index since last July. There had been some concern about the weakness seen in the March reading. The final March PPI core reading was well above expectations and saw its biggest monthly gain in three years.

- The Ukraine situation remains at a low boil. Russia expressed disappointment that central European nations ignored his threatening letter on Ukraine gas debt issues, while EU Energy Commissioner Oettinger said the EU was working on a solution that could help Ukraine pay for its energy supplies. Meanwhile, German tabloid Bild warned that a confidential NATO assessment suggested Russia might be looking to occupy all of Ukraine. WTI crude futures have crept higher all week despite the big builds in inventories, and are within striking distance of $104 presently, their highest level since the aftermath of the Ukrainian revolution in early March.

- Shares of JPMorgan lost 4% or so in the premarket but have perked up a bit in early cash trading. JPMorgan saw its first earnings miss in over two years in its first quarter, and only its fifth miss in ten years. Overall earnings fell 28% y/y, fixed income and markets revenue dropped 20% y/y and mortgage originations slid nearly 70% y/y. The firm warned that mortgage production would be negative in Q2 - driving a loss for the business unit - and also negative for the year.

- Wells Fargo beat earnings expectations in its first quarter, on a healthy y/y gain in net profit. However the bottom line concealed some pretty poor metrics: income from mortgage banking fell by 46%, new home loans were down nearly two-thirds y/y, and total net income was padded by another loan loss reserve release. Shares of WFC are about flat on the day, while most other major bank stocks are down one or two percent.

- It has been the busiest IPO week since 2007 by one count, with up to 16 planned openings (several were cancelled due to the terrible market conditions). The most notable gainer of the morning has been the IPO of Zoe's Kitchen. Shares of the fast casual restaurant concept priced at $15 last night and opened for trading at $25.65. Agriculture REIT Farmland Partners priced their IPO at $14, but shares opened for trading this morning at $13.75.

***Looking Ahead***
- World Bank and International Monetary Fund begin 3-day spring Meeting
- (GR) German Chancellor Merkel to meet Greece PM Samaras in Athens
- (SE) Sweden Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (DE) Germany Sovereign Debt Rating by DBRS
- (IT) Italy Sovereign Debt Rating by DBRS
- (ES) Spain Sovereign Debt Rating by DBRS
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Mar International Reserves (ISK): No est v 496B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank's Economists Survey




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