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Active Calendar into Friday's Holiday Break. All Eyes are on Equities
|Active Calendar into Friday's Holiday Break. All Eyes are on Equities|
April 14, 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: EZ- Industrial Production, US- Retail Sales, Business Inventories
| EURUSD 1.3890
|| U.S. 2.62% -1bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 141.04
|| Bund 1.51% -1bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6745
|| GILT 2.61% -1bp
| USDJPY 101.53
|| JGB 0.61% 0bp
|| Far East Close: Lower|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: EZ- Industrial Production, US- Retail Sales
- Fed Minutes from Wednesday of last week illustrated the impossibility of central Bank calendar-related rate guidance. The basic message of the Fed Minutes seems to have been that Yellen's comment that rates could start to rise six months after the end of the asst purchases taper had been made off the cuff and was not policy.
- As a result the yield on the 10-yr note fell to as low as 2.62% in the latest week. Recall the 10-yr spiked to 3.00% when the "tapering" was first announced. Traders will have to be cognizant of the general pattern of economic data for major economies.
- The other key development last week was the correction in equity prices led by a decline in the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ had become heavily overbought led by the booming biotech industry, but apparently prices had gotten heavily overbought and were ripe for a correction.
- This week is dominated by holidays related to Passover and Easter. Friday (Good Friday) will be a holiday for many markets. Data news highlights this week include U.S. Retail Sales data on Monday and the German ZEW Survey and Inflation data from the U.S., U.K. and N.Z. Tuesday.
- Wednesday will be busy with Chinese GDP, U.K. employment, EZ final CPI (HICP), U.S. Housing Starts/Permits, and a Bank of Canada rate decision. Thursday sees Canadian CPI data before the holiday break.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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