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"Risk-Off" trade due to Ukraine Trumps Economic Data Tuesday. Busy Wednesday
|"Risk-Off" trade due to Ukraine Trumps Economic Data Tuesday. Busy Wednesday.|
April 16, 2014 :00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP. GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI).US- Weekly Mortgages, Housing Starts/Permits,industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Weekly Crude, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision
| EURUSD 1.3812
|| U.S. 2.62% -1bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 140.52
|| Bund 1.48% -4bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6723
|| GILT 2.61% -1bp
| USDJPY 101.74
|| JGB 0.60% -1bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, GB- Jobs, EZ- Final HICP (CPI), Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production Capacity Utilization, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada
- About mid-morning Tuesday in N.Y. the markets started to react negatively to mounting tensions in Ukraine by moving into a "risk-off" posture. This move was exacerbated by the upcoming holiday period starting at the end of this week.
- U.S. CPI data were rose in line with estimates. Recall,the Fed targets the core PCE deflator. The Empire State PMI index was considerably weaker than expected.
- Key U.K. inflation data for March fell in line with market estimates and were constructive for a continuation of an accommodative monetary policy for the Bank of England.
- The German April ZEW Survey data were mixed with Current Conditions continuing on a strongly improving path. The Expectations index remained weak due to worries about Ukraine. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
- Wednesday will be busy with Chinese GDP, U.K. employment, EZ final CPI (HICP), U.S. Housing Starts/Permits, and a Bank of Canada rate decision. Thursday sees Canadian CPI data before the holiday break.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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