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Monday April 21, 2014 - 03:28:09 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 21-Apr-2014 -0327 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand markets are closed today. The other markets are trading nearly flat though the Japanese market is trying to shrug off a poor trade data and a weakening export growth.

The Dow (16408.54, -0.10%) rose to our target of 16400-450 as expected after bouncing back from 16000 levels for the third time in the last 9 weeks. But the bulls still need a new high above 16630 to confirm the end of the correction and a resumption of the uptrend.

The Dax (9409.71, +0.99%) is close to the strong resistance of 6450 and the price action here may decide the short term trend. The long term uptrend will get damaged on a break below the major support zone of 9150-9050.

In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2096.13, -0.08%) is in a corrective mode after the recent rally but it is finding some buying emerging from 2090-80 as expected and may resume the uptrend for a target of 2170-80.

The Nikkei (14607.98, +0.63%) diluted the bearish momentum a bit after closing above 14350 last week and rose further to the strong resistance of 14675-700 with the Yen weakening a bit more. The current technical picture is somewhat muddy and the next 1-2 sessions may give the required clarity.

The Nifty (6779.40, +1.56%) bulls did a tremendous job as they repaired almost all the technical damage with a close near the weekly high, more importantly above the resistance of 6750-60 as required. A new high above 6820 now will signal the next phase of upmove towards 6950-7000. We have got a clear stoploss at 6665 now for the investors which may be raised with further rise.

COMMODITIES
Renewed strength in the Dollar has pushed Gold (1286.5) down below the 1300-1295 support region, reasserting the overall downtrend and opening up chances of further losses towards 1270 initially and then 1250 in the coming weeks. 1310 likely to be good near-term and medium-term Resistance now.

Silver (19.31) has also fallen alongwith Gold, but we note long-term trend Support in the 19.00-18.50 region. While an eventual break below 18.50 can be envisaged, it is not a clear given. It may take time at the least. And in case Silver bounces past 19.75-20.00, the chances of a decline will reduce. Note that the Gold-Silver ratio (66.54) may see some Resistance near 67.46, the previous high in Jun-13.

Copper (3.0450) continues to consolidate sideways within a relatively wide range of 2.98-3.08. It seems to be preparing for an eventual rise towards 3.15, but needs to break above Resistance at 3.07 to confirm.

Brent (109.07) and WTI (104.09) continue to move up in line with expectation, targeting 112 and 108 respectively. The Brent-WTI Spread (4.98) continues to be in an overall decline and can test 4.00, lending credence to the projections of 112 and 108 on Brent and WTI above.

FOREX
Dollar Index (79.90) has been struggling near 80.00-80.10 as expected and it may face more selling from 80.30 as well. The broad range of 79.25-80.50 may remain in force for some more time. Only on a break above 80.55-60, the trend will turn from down to up.

The Euro (1.3811) is trying to bounce from our support zone of 1.3790-60 and rally higher. From the broader perspective, for major gain it has to break above 1.40 and simultaneously Dollar Index must break below 79.

Dollar-Yen (102.65) has managed to hold above 101.50-20 so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. Now it is testing the resistance at 102.75-103.00 as expected and this resistance zone may push it down once again. We keep watching the long term support at 100.75-50 for major moves.

The Euro-Yen Cross (141.76) is testing our resistance of 141.65-90 after finding buying support from 140.50-139.50 as expected. Now a break above 141.65-90 may take it higher towards the major resistance of 143.50.

Pound (1.6794) has finished the small correction and resumed its major uptrend in line with our expectation. It may reach 1.7000-50 in the next 1-2 weeks as the short term momentum remains intact above 1.6730-10.

Aussie (0.9321) may trade in the range of 0.93-0.94 for some more time before making a decisive move. Bulls may attempt to push it higher from 0.9325 or even 0.9300-0.9270. Our bias is neutral for the moment.

Dollar-Rupee (60.2950) made a weekly high at 60.49 but failed to break above our supply zone of 60.50-60. A break below 60.20-15 may weaken it further towards 59.80-60 but the cue from the other EM currencies keep the possibility of another bounce alive. All in all, our stance remains bearish below 60.60 as only a break above 60.60 would confirm a rise to 60.90-61.00.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.70%) and 5Yr (1.72%) both bounced from 2.63% and 1.64% respectively. They are currently trading just below resistance at current levels. A break above the resistances and we may see the yields target 2.75% and 1.75% respectively. The US 10-5Yr yield spread (0.98%) has remained stable; it may come down further to test support near 0.95%-0.96% before we see a bounce.

The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.22%) saw a bounce from the support at -0.25% as expected. The 10Yr spread (-1.19%) is also up but the Euro (1.3811) dropped and is testing the 8-MA support on the 3-Day line charts. The German 10Yr (1.51%) saw a slight bounce and is now trading just above the support at 1.50%. A range of 1.45%-1.55% can be expected for now. A break beyond this range will give us further direction.

The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.10%) saw a bounce from the 2.03% levels along with the Dollar-Yen (102.65) which bounced after making a low near 101.86 on Thursday. The Japan 10-5Yr yield differential (0.41%) is trading at the support zone of 0.40%-0.41%. A bounce from here and the Japan 10Yr (0.60%) can target 0.65%.

The Indo- US 10Yr spread (6.13%) dropped and has come to test the support at current levels and may bounce from here. The Indian 10 Yr GOI yields (8.85%) saw a fall from near 9.00% and may now drop further to test the support near 8.75% before a bounce back to 9.00% and beyond.

DATA TODAY

No major data release today.

FRIDAY' s DATA
No major data release on Friday.

 

 

 

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John M. Bland, MBA
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