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Friday April 25, 2014 - 10:05:52 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Ukraine situation keeps risk appetite muted; Fitch raises Italy's outlook

Fri, 25 Apr 2014 5:25 AM EST

- (FR) French Health Min Touraine has a 3-yr plan that will save Medicare spending 10B - Les Echos
- (RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Russia will push to de-escalate Ukraine situation - press conference
- (ID) Virgin Blue passenger plane was thought to be hijacked , was forced to land at Bali - Indonesia media
- ALO.FR: (FR) France Econ Min Montebourg: Working on solutions for company other than a bid from GE - Le Monde
- (CH) SNB's Jordan speaks at SNB's AGM: Reiterates view that 1.20 threshold for cross is needed and remain its main policy instrument
- (EU) EU single resolution mechanism (SSM) incoming chief Nouy: ECB needs to be a robust and effective supervisor
- Japan Apr Tokyo CPI Core YoY hit its highest level since 1992 (2.7% v 2.8%e). Excluding that Sales tax increase, prices rose just 1% (same level as in March)
- Rhetoric and accusations still flying regarding the situation of Russia-Ukraine border keeping global risk appetite at bay (aiding safe haven flows)
- UK retail sales registers a small beat and shows continued signs of momentum in economy

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets opened higher following the losses seen on prior session, Shares of Alstom and Telekom Austria supported by takeover speculation, Spanish banks report declines in Q1 bad loan ratios (Sabadell, CaixaBank), Apple results support chipmakers.

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,687, DAX -0.8% at 9,475, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,464, IBEX-35 -0.8% at 10,377, FTSE MIB -0.9% at 21,630, SMI -0.3% at 8,387, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,870]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Staples [Tate & Lyle TATE.UK +3% (M&A speculation)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Renault RNO.FR -1% (Q1 sales flat); Publigroupe PUBN.CH +8% (received offer for unit), Kering KER.FR +2% (planned restructuring measures, Q1 LFL sales +4.1%)]
- Telecom [KPN KPN.NL -1% (Q1 EBITDA below ests)]
- Industrials [SAAB SAABB.SE -2.5% (Q1 results below ests), Sandvik SAND.SE -2% (Q1 profits below ests), Volvo VOLVA.SE -1% (Q1 Op profit below ests), Continental CON.DE -1% (guided Q1 sales below ests); Electrolux ELUXB.SE +9% (Q1 results above ests, more positive on Europe)
- Energy [Neste Oil -6% (Q1 profits declined), Tullow Oil TLW.UK -2.5% (drilling update)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [SSAB SSABA.SE +6% (Q1 profits above ests)]
- Financials [Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -2% (renewed capital raise speculation)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Telecom -1%, Utilities -0.7%, Financials -0.7%, Energy -0.7%, Consumer Cyclical -0.5%, Technology -0.3%, Industrials -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.1%; Basic Materials +0.5%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Rhetoric and accusations were still flying regarding the situation of Russia-Ukraine border keeping global risk appetite at bay (aiding safe haven flows). However, FX markets not responding to concerns and remain locked in tight ranges.
- UK retail sales registered a small beat and shows continued signs of momentum in economy. The GBP was slightly firmer after the data but saw limited upside as back months were revised lower
- Japan Apr Tokyo CPI Core YoY hit its highest level since 1992 (2.7% v 2.8%e). Excluding that Sales tax increase, prices rose just 1% (same level as in March). The question begged whether the Bank of Japan's attempt to push inflation to 2% by 2015 had stalled despite the BOJ's massive bond-buying. If so, the bank might feel the need to increase its asset purchases

***Sovereign Rating Actions***
- (IT) Fitch raises Italy outlook to stable from negative; Affirms sovereign rating at BBB+
- (FR) S&P Affirms France sovereign rating at AA; Outlook Stable
- (EU) S&P affirms EFSF at AA; Outlook Stable
- (CY) Fitch raises Cyprus Foreign Currency IDR Outlook to Stable from Negative; Raises Local Currency rating one notch to B- from CCC
- (CY) S&P raises Cyprus long term sovereign rating one notch to B from B-; Outlook positive

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Feb All Industry Activity Index M/M: -1.1% v -0.7%e
- (SG) Singapore Mar Industrial Production M/M: 6.1% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 12.1% v 6.4%e
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending April 19th (y/y): +26.3% v +9.5% prior
- (FI) Finland Mar Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Construction Orders NSA Y/Y: +3.2% v +10.6% prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 18th (RUB): 8.13T v 8.03T prior
- (ES) Spain Mar PPI M/M: +0.2 v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -2.9% prior
- (ES) Spain Feb Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: -11.6% v -25.8% prior; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: -33.0% v -32.4% prior
- (AT) Austria Feb Industrial Production M/M: -2.6 v +2.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 5.0% prior
- (HU) Hungary Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v 8.6%e
- (DK) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.1 v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v +1.0% prior
- (EU) ECB 89M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 100.0M prior; 29.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 23.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 105.2K v 132.5K prior
- (TW) Taiwan Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.6% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.9% v 8.6% prior
- (UK) Mar Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: -0.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.5%e
- (UK) Mar Retail Sales (Including Auto) M/M: +0.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 3.8%e
- (UK) Mar BBA Loans for House Purchase: 45.9K v 49.0Ke
- (IS) Iceland Mar Wage Index M/M: 1.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.7% prior

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- 05:30 (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave One-Week Auction Rate unchanged at 7.00%
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills (0.5B, 0.5B and 1.0B respectively)
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) EMA Releases Drug approvals and safety decisions
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 107.2 prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.6%e v 0.2% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e April 18th: No est v $309.0B prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Poland PM Tusk in Berlin
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Apr Business Confidence: -4.8e v -4.4 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Economic Activity IGAE Y/Y: 1.6%e v 0.8% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Current Account Balance: -$6.3Be v -$7.5B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $3.5Be v $4.1B prior
- 09:45 (US) April Preliminary Markit Services PMI: 55.5e v 55.3 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 55.7 prior
- 09:45 (CA) Canada Fin Min Oliver
- 09:55 (US) Apr Final University of Michigan: 83.0e v 82.6 prelim
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 10:30 (PE) Peru Q1 Inflation Report
- 10:30 (NL) ECB's Knot (Netherlands) in Amsterdam
- 12:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy in Brussels
- 12:00 (FR) France Mar Net Change Jobseekers: No est v +31.5K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 3.348M prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 3.25%




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