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Friday April 25, 2014 - 16:59:25 GMT
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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - US ECONOMY 'SPRINGING' TO LIFE?

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 25 APRIL 2014

 

US ECONOMY 'SPRINGING' TO LIFE?

 

• Sluggish US Q1 GDP expected, but payrolls and ISM to suggest faster Q2 growth

• Euro area preliminary HICP inflation expected to rise and ease calls for ECB QE

• Robust UK Q1 GDP expected to add to interest rate hike expectations

 

Ukraine situation adds uncertainty ... As feared, tensions in Ukraine continue to mount and are starting to have a more visible impact on financial markets. A mild safe-haven effect appears to be keeping bond yields relatively suppressed with US 10-year yields staying at 2.70% adding some uncertainty premia to oil markets, pushing the Brent oil price back towards recent highs. However, economic news should dominate the coming week. The US will see the first estimate of Q1 GDP; the latest FOMC meeting; and the April employment report. Elsewhere, euro area preliminary HICP will be critical for the debatenabout ECB QE. UK Q1 GDP will also impact thendomestic policy debate.

 

Uptick in euro inflation to dampen QE call ... The euro area sees a number of data releases across the week including PMIs, M3 money supply and business confidence. However, market focus will be on the preliminary estimate of April ’s HICP inflation. Last month, ECB President Draghi dismissed the need for more stimulus, explaining that the drop in March’s inflation was temporarily affected by the timing of Easter and would rebound in April. We concur and our global team forecast inflation to rise to 0.9%. We suspect this will dissuade the ECB from providing further stimulus at its May meeting and expect markets to interpret it this way. However, ECB medium-term staff forecasts are likely to be important and should in turn keep alive talks of QE. Spanish estimates of Q1 GDP will also be interesting in their own right, with our estimates in line with the Bank of Spain’s forecast of a 0.4% rise.

 

Heavy US schedule, but no change in outlook?... The coming week is a busy one for US releases. The first estimate of Q1 GDP look set to confirm a weather-impacted start to the year. Our global team forecast a subdued 1.6% (annualised) rise in GDP, impacted by soft consumer spending, a drop in exports and a modest inventory correction. Yet insofar as a subdued start to the year is now fully expected, this may be largely dismissed by markets. More important will be April’s ISM estimate, where we forecast another decent rise to 54.9 – consistent with robust expansion ahead.

 

Payrolls and FOMC ... We also see the latest employment report. Again, we expect a modestly above consensus rise in payrolls in April - up 220k and will watch for revisions to the March reading (now oddly lower than February). Unemployment is also expected to dip to 6.6% this month. But we will perhaps pay most heed to the latest earnings figures, which softened last month. The monthly volatility of payrolls cautions against too much extrapolation. However, a firm April and any increase in earnings could reawaken concerns about the magnitude of spare capacity, affecting the monetary policy outlook. That said, we see little chance of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting doing anything other than a further $10bn tapering and maybe a tweak to the statement citing recent evidence of improving economic conditions.

 

UK data to add to rate hike fears ? ... The UK also sees key releases, with markets focusing on the first estimate of Q1 GDP on Tuesday. This looks like a close call. However, on balance we forecast a slightly faster pace of expansion than in Q4, pencilling in a 0.9% rise, driven by aquickening in services growth. This is likely to further raise expectations of an early tightening in monetary policy. The manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise in the coming week. Finally we will watch the Bank’s mortgage approvals release with interest. We expect a rise in approvals ahead of the introduction of the Mortgage Market Review on 26 April. However, preliminary BBA figures for March suggest a softening for now

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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