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Monday April 28, 2014 - 10:19:35 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: US to tighten the vice with heavier sanctions on Russia; Pfizer still interested in AstraZeneca

Mon, 28 Apr 2014 5:15 AM EST

- Ukraine crisis remain on front burner; US confirmed it would increase sanctions to individuals and companies as having close ties to President Putin
- USD remains on the defensive with M&A flows cited as recent catalyst
- Verbal intervention continues from ECB members. Focused on Eurozone preliminary CPI data due out Wednesday (if the Apr figure fails to improve the ECB would come under further pressure to take incremental monetary actions)
- AZN: Pfizer issues statement on possible offer: Still interested in possible combination; Confirmed previously submitted a 46.61/shr offer (cash and stock) but talks ended
- (RU) US President Obama: Confirms new sanctions against Russia to be announced today related to individuals and companies
- ECB's Constancio (PortugaL) stated that the central bank would act if it saw the need to do so; have no target in mind for April inflation data

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following Friday's losses, Pfizer commentary boosts shares of AstraZeneca, Bayer rises on better than expected Q1 results , Russian equities opened lower amid reports related to new sanctions, Siemens declines on speculation related to Alstom, Spanish banks continue to report q/q declines in bad loan ratios (Bankia), Energy company earnings in focus on this week (BG declines on cautious production outlook)

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.9%, FTSE 100 +0.5% at 6,715, DAX +0.8% at 9,477, CAC-40 +0.7% at 4,475, IBEX-35 +0.7% at 10,379, FTSE MIB +0.9% at 21,649, SMI +0.5% at 8,413, S&P 500 Futures +0.4% at 1,866]

***By Sector***
- Financials [Swedbank SWEDA.SE -1% (Q1 profits below ests)]
- Healthcare [AstraZeneca AZN.UK +14% (interest from Pfizer), Bayer BAYN.DE +4% (Q1 results above ests); Meda MEDAA.SE -8% (rejected approach from Mylan)]
- Industrials [Siemens SIE.DE -2% (speculation related to Alstom), Continental CON.DE -1.5% (ex dividend)]
- Energy [BG BG.UK -3.5% (cautious production guidance)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.4%, Financials +0.6%, Basic Materials +0.5%, Technology +0.5%, Consumer Cyclical +0.3%, Energy +0.2%, Utilities +0.2%; Industrials -0.4%, Telecom -0.1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- The USD was on softer footing during the European morning on M&A flows. Pfizer confirmed it did make an offer for AstraZenica. Siemens said to be prepared to match or beat Alstom offer with GE.
- . Eonia is above the ECB penalty rate. ECB's Noyer came out with more verbal intervention about the inflation impact of a strong currency and that it would use all tools to ensure its price stability mandate
- The GBP/USD hit a fresh 4 year high above 1.6843
- Focused on Eurozone preliminary CPI data due out Wednesday (if the Apr figure fails to improve the ECB would come under further pressure to take incremental monetary actions)

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Mar Import Price Index M/M: -0.6% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -2.8%
- (FI) Finland Apr Business Confidence: -7 v -7 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: 3.7 v 8.5 prior
- (FI) Finland Mar House Price Index M/M: 0.2 v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.2% prior
- (TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Confidence Index: 78.5 v 72.7 prior
- (VN) Vietnam Apr YTD Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.5% v 10.2% prior
- (VN) Vietnam Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.0% v 4.7% prior
- (CH) SNB: Swiss sight deposits for week ended Apr 25th: 312.9B v 314.3B prior
- (EU) ECB 18.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 89.0M prior; 24.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 29.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Mar PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar Retail Sales M/M: 1.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 2.7%e
- (SE) Sweden Mar Trade Balance (SEK): 2.6B v 5.4Be
- (TH) Thailand Mar Customs Trade Balance: $1.4B v $1.4Be; Customs Exports Y/Y: 3.1% v -1.4%e; Customs Imports Y/Y: -14.2% v -12.0%e
- (TW) Taiwan Mar Leading Index M/M: 0.2 v 0.2% prior; Coincident Index M/M: 0.1 v 0.1% prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Consumer Confidence Index: 105.4 v 101.2e ; highest reading since Jan 2010
- (UK) Apr Lloyds Business Barometer: 66 v 44 prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Trade Balance (HKD) -50.4B v -43.9Be; Exports YoY: +3.4% v -0.7%e Imports YoY: +3.2% v -1.8%e

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Commission Presidency candidates' debate in Maastricht
- (FR) France Econ Min Montebourg to meet Siemens exec on Alstom bid
- (BR) Brazil Apr CNI Consumer Confidence: No est v 108.8 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v -1.5%e; Y/Y: No est v 5.0% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2016, 2019, 2024 and 2041 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Tax Collections (BRL): 87.0Be v 83.1B prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.5-7.7B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.75%

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Preliminary Trade Balance: $1.6Be v $1.0B prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB
- 10:00 (US) Mar Pending Home Sales M/M: +0.7%e v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -10.2% v -10.2% prior
- 10:30 (US) Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 6.0e v 4.9 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.75-2.25B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills


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