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More High Impact News Data in Store for Tuesday. Ukraine Simmering
|More High Impact News Data in Store for Tuesday. Ukraine Simmering|
April 29 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: JP- Holiday, GB- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence
| EURUSD 1.3854
|| U.S. 2.70% +3bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 141.79
|| Bund 1.50% +2bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6805
|| GILT 2.67% +2bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.35
|| JGB 0.61% -2bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Holiday, GB- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence.
- Japanese Retail Sales outperformed estimates early on Monday, gaining 11.0% y y vs, +3.60% in March. All eyes have been on the strength of the Japanese recovery in the wake of the "April Fools Day" sales tax increase.
- U.S. March Pending Homes Sales, a reliable predictor of Existing Homes Sales two months in advance spiked higher by 3.4% mo/mo vs. expectations of a 0.70% advance. This was the first positive piece of news for housing in over six months. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. Tuesday sees U.K. GDP and the Conference Board consumer Sentiment Survey.
- We expect no surprises from the FOMC Wednesday. Another $10 bln cut in the monthly Asset Purchase Program to $45bln is assured. There is no press conference afterwards, so we will have only the official statement as an explanation of the policy decision. Chair Yellen will speak publicly on Thursday.
- The latest Employment Report (April) will not be released until Friday. The U.S. Employment data will be the major focus as the impact of the severe winter weather continues to work its way out of the data. Up until now the pace of improvement in the jobs statistics has been disappointingly slow. We note also that national housing statistics have been shockingly poor as well.
- The Fed has price stability and full-employment as its twin mandates. An unexpected surge in job creation could provide equities with a needed shot in the arm.
- High-Impact data Wednesday will be flash Eurozone inflation, which could impact the ECB decision a week from now and German Retail Sales. U.S. ADP data affect the outlook for the Friday Jobs report. Thursday sees the Manufacturing PMI data for a number of economies. Fed Chair Yellen speaks as well. Friday sees the April U.S. Jobs report.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
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Fri 24 Nov
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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