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Tuesday April 29, 2014 - 10:25:49 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Draghi affirms QE is not immediately forthcoming; Russian troops head back to base relieving risk appetite

Tue, 29 Apr 2014 5:27 AM EST

- Risk appetite gets a reprieve as Russian troops returned from Ukraine border back to their base after assurances from Ukraine Govt that it would not use force
- German Apr CPI YoY reading come in higher from month-ago levels (in line with ECB view of gradual improvement towards target); However, another gauge of inflation (M3 money supply) missed expectations. Draghi said to see QE program as a long ways away as far as timing
- UK Q1 GDP reading YoY reading was the strongest since Q4 but slightly below consensus
- (UK) BoE Gov Carney: Recovery is broadening with early signs that it is becoming sustainable; there is considerable slack in the labor market - financial press
- WLF.UK: Cirrus Logic Agrees To Acquire Wolfson Microelectronics for $467M, 2.35/shr Cash
- Europe had another heavy day of earnings, with most beating expectations, Banks in Germany and Spain did especially well.
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Board member: Interest rate hike might help to curb household debt - financial press
- (CN) China PBOC issues 2014 financial stability report: Reiterates its prudent monetary policy stance and that downward pressure remains on growth
- New Zealand posted its 5th consecutive month of trade surpluses

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher amid generally better than expected corporate earnings, Deutsche Bank opens higher after reporting better than expected results, ABB lower on weaker Q1 results , Energy producers report better than expected profits (BP, Eni, Statoil), Spanish banks continue to report declines in bad loan ratios (Santander), Nokia supported by cash return plan, Peugeot launches capital increase.

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,729, DAX +0.5% at 9,492, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,458, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 10,364, FTSE MIB +0.9% at 21,710, SMI +0.5% at 8,428, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,870]

***By Sector***
- Industrials [Gerberit GEBN.CH +5% (Q1 profits rose y/y), Panalpina PWTN.CH +3% (Q1 results above ests); ABB ABBN.CH -6% (Q1 results below ests)]
- Financials [Deutsche Bank DBK.DE +1% (Q1 profits above ests), Santander SAN.ES flat (Q1 results in line)
- Technology [Wolfson Microelectronics WLF.UK +70% (takeover offer), Nokia NOK1V.FI +5% (buyback and special dividend), Infineon IFX.DE +4.5% (Q1 profits above ests), Aixtron AIXA.DE +3% (Q1 results above ests); Serco SRP.UK -16% (profit warning)]
- Consumer Discretionary [TomTom TOM2.NL +8% (reported Q1 operating profit), Peugeot UG.FR +5% (launched rights offering), Essilor EI.FR +3% (Q1 LFL sales +2.4%); Svenska Cellulosa SCAB.SE -3% (Q1 results below ests)
- Healthcare [Transgene TNG.FR -14% (revised agreement with Novartis), Sanofi SAN.FR -1% (Q1 profits below ests)]
Energy [Statoil STL.NO +3% (Q1 profits above ests), Eni ENI.IT +1% (Q1 profits above ests), BP BP.UK +0.5% (Q1 profits above ests)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [UPM UPM1V.FI +6% (Q1 results above ests)]
Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +1.1%, Technology +0.7%, Energy +0.6%, Financials +0.2%, Basic Materials +0.1%, Utilities +0.1%; Consumer Cyclical -0.7%, Industrials -0.4%, Consumer Non-cyclical -0.4%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- German Apr individual State CPI YoY readings edged higher from month ago level (in line with ECB view of gradual improvement towards target). However, another gauge of inflation (M3 money supply) missed expectations. Some dealers noted that Euro upside might be limited even if the upcoming April EU inflation data improved given the growing volume of rhetoric from ECB officials on its impact on price stability
- UK Q1 GDP reading YoY reading was the strongest since Q4 2007 and dealers pondered whether it could prompt market reassessment of timing of first BOE rate hike. However, the intial reaction was a softer GDP currency was lower as the data came in slightly below expectations.

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany May GfK Consumer Confidence: 8,5 v 8.5e; matched 7-year high
- (FR) France Apr Consumer Confidence: 85 v 88e
- (SE) Sweden Apr Consumer Confidence: 99.0 v 101.1e
; Manufacturing Confidence: 102.6 v 101.5e; Economic Tendency Survey: 102.6 v 102.9e
- (ES) Spain Q1 Unemployment Rate: 25.9% v 25.9%e
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Saxony M/M: -0.1% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.9% prior
- (EU) ECB 23.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 18.0M prior; 23.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 24.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Mar Household Lending Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.4%e; M3 3-month average: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -0.7%e
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.1% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.0% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Hesse M/M: -0.2% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.0% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Bavaria M/M: -0.2% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9% prior
- (AT) Austria Apr Manufacturing PMI: 51.4 v 51.0 prior
- (UK) Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%e
- (UK) Feb Index of Services M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (PT) Portugal Apr Consumer Confidence Index: -30.3 v -30.7 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -0.2 v -0.3 prior
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.1% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.4% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.0% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.0% prior
- (BE) Belgium Apr CPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.9% prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Business Confidence: 99.9 v 99.5e; Economic Sentiment: 88.8 v 89.5 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Business Climate Indicator: 0.27 v 0.42e; Consumer Confidence: -8.6 v -8.7e; Economic Confidence: 102.0 v 102.9e; Industrial Confidence: -3.6 v -3.1e; Services Confidence: 3.5 v 4.8e
- (IS) Iceland Apr CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.2% prior

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (US) Federal Reserve begins 2-day FOMC Meeting
- (ES) Spain Mar YTD Budget Balance: No est v -12.40B prior
- (BR) Brazil Mar Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): +1.3Be v -3.1B prior
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell 1.0-2.0B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- Sells in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.150% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 4.19x prior (Apr 15th)
- Sells in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.171% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.05x prior (Apr 1st)
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 2.65% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.77x prior (Apr 22nd)
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 3.5B in 2.75% 2024 Gilts; Avg Yield: % v 2.928% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.24x prior; Tail: bps v 0.1bps prior (Mar 11th 2014 with b/c highest since March 2013)
- 06:30 (US) Business Sec Cable questioned by Lawmakers on Royal Mail Sale
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender (Draining operation)
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.8%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 8.0%e v 7.3% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (DE) German Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.1%e v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.0% prior
- 08:00 (DE) German Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1%e v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 0.9% prior

- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 10bps to 2.50%
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (US) Mar S&P/CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 0.80%e v 0.85% prior; Y/Y: 13.00%e v 13.24% prior; Home Price Index: 165.43e v 165.50 prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.733T prior; Outstanding Loans M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 1.319T prior; Personal Loan Default: No est v 6.5% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 3-Month Refinancing Tender (Prior 11.6B with 83 bids recd)
- 10:00 (US) Apr Consumer Confidence Index: 82.8e v 82.3 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Weekly Mexico International Reserves
- 10:00 (UK) BOE's Bailey
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase U$2.00-2.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $50B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $15B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes

- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel gives EU election speech in Guestrow
- 14:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Mar Industrial Production M/M: +1.0%e v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.3% prior
- 19:05 (UK) Apr GfK Consumer Confidence: -4e v -5 prior
- (JP) BOJ Monetary Policy decision




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