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Tuesday April 29, 2014 - 18:27:17 GMT
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U.K. GDP Up, Conference Board Survey Falls. "Risk-On" Markets
|U.K. GDP Up, Conference Board Survey Falls. "Risk-On" Markets|
April 30 2014 00:00 gmt
JP- Mfg PMI, Industrial Output, Bank of Japan. DE- Retail Sales, Unemployment, CH- KOF Indicator, EZ flash HICP. US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Jobs, GDP, Chicago PMI, Weekly Crude, Fed Decision, CA- GDP
| EURUSD 1.3811
|| U.S. 2.72% 0bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 141.67
|| Bund 1.53% 0bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6824
|| GILT 2.69% 0bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.58
|| JGB 0.62% +1bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Mfg PMI, Industrial Output, Bank of Japan, DE- Retail Sales, Unemployment, CH- KOF Indicator, EZ flash HICP, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, Chicago PMI, Fed Decision, CA- GDP
- We expect no surprises from the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday. Another $10 bln cut in the monthly Asset Purchase Program to $45bln is assured. There is no press conference afterwards, so we will have only the official statement as an explanation of the policy decision. Chair Yellen will speak publicly on Thursday and may or may not comment of Fed policy..
- The U.S. Conference Board consumer Sentiment Survey for April was weaker than expected. This survey focuses on a shorter-term time frame than the University of Michigan Survey, which is long-term. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
- Preliminary 1Q14 U.K. GDP advanced +0.80% qq and +3.10% yy. This fell short of expectations, but still represented solid growth. The GBP dipped initially on the data but has since stabilized.
- The latest Employment Report (April) will not be released until Friday. The U.S. Employment data will be the major focus as the impact of the severe winter weather continues to work its way out of the data. Up until now the pace of improvement in the jobs statistics has been disappointingly slow. We note also that national housing statistics have been shockingly poor as well.
- The Fed has price stability and full-employment as its twin mandates. An unexpected surge in job creation could provide equities with a needed shot in the arm.
- High-Impact data Wednesday will be flash Eurozone inflation, which could impact the ECB decision a week from now and German Retail Sales. U.S. ADP data affect the outlook for the Friday Jobs report. Thursday sees the Manufacturing PMI data for a number of economies. Fed Chair Yellen speaks as well. Friday sees the April U.S. Jobs report.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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