User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday August 11, 2005 - 10:46:57 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• JPY remains firm as Nikkei/TOPIX storm to 4-year highs.

• Below 109.70-110 would see more position liquidations on USD-JPY.

• EUR-USD still has short-term upside risk, but it is heavy going.

• GBP can improve further after MPC, but November rate cut risk still in place.

• Norges Bank meeting and US retail sales feature today.

Market Outlook

The JPY has remained firm after USD-JPY broke below 110.75 yesterday and this should persist in the short-term. Support now comes in at 109.70-110.00 and the big issue is whether the market sees the post-election environment favourably enough to push below this area. While it is not clear that the market will be comfortable in having enough certainty on this issue, the additional downside risk for USD-JPY comes from the positioning backdrop that has built up in recent months. There are likely to be short JPY positions in abundance and liquidation risk alone suggests a good chance of a further break lower in the short-term.

EUR-USD continues to mess about on a daily basis and the move will be in danger of running out of steam if further upside progress cannot be made in the next couple of days. 1.2450- 1.2500 is still a risk today or tomorrow and how it ends the week may well be determined by tomorrow’s monthly US trade data.

GBP bounced back yesterday after the MPC rapped the market’s knuckles over the extent of the rate cuts it had been discounting a few weeks back. The portrayal of CPI projections under different interest rate assumptions clearly shows that they do not currently feel to be in a position to cut rates any further at the present time. However, by stating that there are downside risks to both GDP and CPI they have laid down a route to a possible further forecast downgrade in November, which will necessitate a further easing in policy (our preferred scenario). Weak data between now and then would be the obvious trigger and retail sales data next week could easily disappoint after the ‘strong’ June data that was probably inflated by early summer discounting. In the short-term, GBP should have further to go (0.6875 on EUR-GBP has already been tested this morning and 0.6840 would follow if the former level breaks), but the move may be short-lived. Rate cut expectations have now been eliminated in the UK money market and this may be overdoing it somewhat.

US monthly budget data released yesterday confirmed the ongoing trend of improvement, with the cumulative deficit in the first 10 months of the financial year now standing at $303.1bn compared to $396.3bn at the same stage last year. There are just two months to go for this financial year and it looks as if the government’s forecast of $333bn (revised lower last month) will be undershot. If recent trends continue (a sizeable ‘if’ perhaps given the potential for volatility in this data), an outcome around $300-$310bn could be seen. Even a repeat of the monthly outcomes seen in the previous year would leave the total at $319.6bn. This is still a large deficit, but it is at least pointing in the right direction after the $412.8bn number seen last year.

Australian labour market data was stronger than expected in terms of the headline employment number (+12.2k) and even a 14.5k fall in full-time employment failed to stop the AUD responding positively to the report. Above 0.7740 is needed to keep this going. A strong labour market report was also seen in New Zealand and the rally in the NZD back above 0.6950- 0.7000 is potentially significant. However, whether the boost to the NZD is extended or reversed in the next 24 hours will depend in part upon tonight’s retail sales data (see below), as well as the general tone of the USD.

EUR-SEK continues to trade heavily and below 9.3160 would extend short-term downside risk to 9.28-30. The headline CPI was a little softer than expected today and this initially caused EUR-SEK to move higher, although the previous month’s rise in the core y/y rate to +0.7% was maintained so it was not really bad news.

Day Ahead
Norway – the Norges Bank announces their latest policy decision and an unchanged rate outcome seems most likely. They hiked rates on June 30 but stated that rate adjustments were likely to be small and infrequent. Key at this meeting is whether this description of the likely policy process is maintained. With activity in Norway robust and recent fears about a weakening in the Eurozone economy having subsided there is a slight risk of a change, although it will probably be left unaltered for now.

US – retail sales, business sales and business inventory data are released today. Retail sales have been generally firm in recent months and another solid showing looks likely for July. Business sales have also been reasonably good, although last month (May) they did slip a little. Overall, today’s data is unlikely to disturb sentiment about what is happening in the US economy. Indeed, it will be interesting to see whether the USD is more receptive to the notion of US data strength.

New Zealand - New Zealand retail sales is out tonight and will be watched to see whether last month’s weakness (-0.6% m/m) is sustained. The outcome could have a bearing on market sentiment about ongoing RBNZ rate hike risk. At its last meeting, the RBNZ said that the risk of higher rates remained in place, but acknowledged that some pieces of data had been weaker (one of which was retail sales).

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Norges Bank policy outcome 08.00 2.0%
ZA SARB policy outcome 08.30 7.0%
US Retail sales (Jul) m/m 08.30 +2.0%
US Retail sales ex-autos (Jul) m/m 08.30 +0.7%
US Business inventories (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.1%
US Business sales (Jun) m/m 08.30 -0.1% last
US Initial claims (w/e Aug 6) 08.30 315k
US Continuing claims (w/e Jul 30) 08.30 2581k last
NZ Retail trade (Jun) m/m 18.45 +1.1%
JP GDP (Q2 2nd est) q/q 19.50 +0.5%
AU RBA’s MacFarlane policy testimony 23.00

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Federal budget balance (Jul) -$52.8bn -$56.7bn
NZ Unemployment rate (Q2) 3.7% 3.9%
NZ Employment (Q2) q/q +0.5% +0.3%
JP Current account (Jun, sa) Y1.5trn Y1.4trn
AU Employment (Aug) 5.0% 5.0%
AU Unemployment rate (Aug) +12.7k -2.5k
CN CPI (Jul) y/y +1.8% +1.5%
CH Consumer confidence (Jul) -15 -8
DE GDP (Q2, 1st est) q/q 0.0% 0.0%
ES GDP (Q2, 1st est) q/q +0.9% +0.9%
NL GDP (Q2, 1st est) q/q +1.2% -0.8% last
SE CPI (Jul) y/y +0.3% +0.5%
SE CPI UND1X (Jul) y/y +0.7% +0.7%
IT GDP (Q2, 1st est) q/q +0.1% +0.2%
EU GDP (Q2, 1st est) q/q +0.3% +0.3%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105