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Wednesday April 30, 2014 - 10:35:34 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone CPI bounces back in Apr; Shell hit by impairments in Q1; Daimler comes in mixed


Wed, 30 Apr 2014 5:24 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Another Heavy day of earnings for Europe. Results varied leading to a mixed opening. Reminder tomorrow, May 1st: Germany, Hong, Kong, China, India, Mexico, Italy, France, Brazil and Chile markets are closed.
- (FR) ECB's Noyer: France's spending cut and reform plan is 'indispensable'
- Eurozone inflation numbers decisive factor in next week ECB meeting; CPI seems to confirm ECB view that Mar 4-year low reading was due to 'temporary factors'
- (GR) Greece Deputy fin Min Staikouras: Greece could issue 3.0-6.0B in bonds within the next 12-months
- (RU) As expected, the IMF cut Russia 2014 GDP forecast from 1.3% to 0.2% citing geopolitical situation and sanctions
- Siemens said to have improved its offer for Alstom's energy units; proposal may include up to 11B in cash
- (CN) China MOF: to levy dumping duty on EU polysilicon of up to 42% effective May 1st for two years
- BOJ unanimous in keeping policy unchanged; maintained its annual pace of monetary base increase at 60-70T. (refrained from expanding its stimulus measures following sales tax hike))
- Mix Japanese data. Japan Apr PMI Manufacturing registers its 1st contraction in 14 months (49.4 vs. 53.9 prior; Mar Industrial Production also misses (MoM: 0.3% vs. 0.5%e); Mar Labor Cash earnings hit two years high (0.7% vs. 0.1%e)
- (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Economy is recovering moderately; domestic demand remains solid - comment from post rate decision press conference

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equities opened lower amid mixed corporate earnings and ahead of April CPI data, Upside in the DAX capped by ex dividends (Bayer, Lufthansa), Alstom trades higher as GE confirmed bid for certain business units, Daimler declines after reaffirming outlook, European banks decline following Q1 earnings reports (BNP, Banco Popular, BBVA, Erste Bank), Upcoming US macro events (Monthly ADP employment, Fed decision)

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,783, DAX +0.2% at 9,597, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,489, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 10,489, FTSE MIB -0.4% at 21,880, SMI +0.6% at 8,485, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,869]

***By Sector***
- Healthcare [Bayer BAYN.DE -1.7% (ex dividend)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Rational RAA.DE -7% (Q1 profits declined), Air France AF.FR -3% (Q1 revenues -2.2%), Lufthansa LHA.DE -2% (ex-dividend)]
- Industrials [Aker Solutions AKSO.NO -6% (Q1 results below ests), Daimler DAI.DE -1.7% (reaffirmed outlook); Alstom ALO.FR +8% (GE issued offer details), Yara International YAR.NO +7% (Q1 profits above ests), Rolls Royce RR.UK +2% (asset sale talks)]
- Financials [BNP BNP -3.5% (criminal probe, Q1 revenues declined), Banco Popular POP.ES (Q1 results below ests)]
- Technology [Osram OSR.DE -3% (cautious sales outlook), Rexel RXL.FR -3% (Q1 EBITDA declined)]
- Energy [Heritage Oil HOIL.UK +22% (takeover offer), Shell RDSA.UK +3% (raised dividend), Tullow Oil TLW.UK +3% (reaffirmed FY production forecast)]

- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities -1%, Financials -0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.1%; Telecom +0.7%, Technology +0.4%, Energy +0.1%, Consumer Cyclical flat, Industrials flat, Basic Materials flat]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Eurozone inflation numbers was awaited since it was viewed as a decisive factor in next week ECB meeting. The EUR/USD barely moved in the session ahead of the data. The headline CPI came in a touch below expectations. However, Euro recovers initial losses after CPI data as it seemed to confirm ECB view that Mar 4-year low reading was due to 'temporary factors'. EUR/USD remain locked within monthly ranges

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Vehicle Production Y/Y: 14.0% v 7.1% prior
- (JP) Japan Mar Annualized Housing Starts: 895K v 894Ke v 919K prior; Y/Y: -2.7%e v +1.0% prior; Construction Orders Y/Y: -8.8% v +12.3% prior
- (DE) Germany Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v +1.7%e
- (DE) Germany Mar Employment: 42.064M v 42.003M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.1% v 5.1% prior
- (CH) Swiss Mar UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.84 v 1.52 prior
- (FI) Finland Feb Final Trade Balance: -65M v -70M prelim
- (ZA) South Africa Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.9% v 5.7%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 8.8% v 8.3%e
- (FR) France Mar Consumer Spending M/M: 0.4% v 0.3% e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -0.4%e
- (FR) France Mar PPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -1.7%e
- (ES) Spain Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (ES) Spain Mar Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.5% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: +0.6% v -0.4% prior
- (ES) Spain Apr Preliminary CPI 0.4% v 0.4%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (CH) Swiss Apr KOF Leading Indicator: 102.04 v 106.0e
- (AT) Austria Mar PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.3% prior
- (HU) Hungary Mar PPI M/M: -0.6% v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.1%e
- (TR) Turkey Mar Trade Balance: -$5.2B v -$5.8Be
- (EU) ECB 123.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 23.0M prior; 30.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 23.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Feb Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.7% v % prior (**Note: Both Jan and Feb data to be released)
- (TH) Thailand Mar Current Account Balance: $2.9B v $2.5Be; Trade Account Balance: $3.5B v $3.9B prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$154M v -$884M prior; Exports Y/Y: -2.7% v +2.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: -13.7% v 18.9% prior
- (TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment Index: 49.4 v 46.5 prior
- (DE) Germany Apr Net Unemployment Change: -25K v -10Ke (fifth straight month of improvement); Unemployment Rate: 6.7% v 6.7%e (matched lowest level since German reunification in 1991)
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 12.7% v 13.0%e
- (DE) Germany Mar Plant and Equipment orders Y/Y: -6.0% v -4.0% prior
- (IS) Iceland Q1 Unemployment Rate: % v 4.5% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 4.6% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI NIC incl. tobacco M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (GR) Greece Feb Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: +0.6 v -0.4% prior; Retail sales Value Y/Y: -2.2% v -0.5%e

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (RU) Russia sells RUB in Bonds
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 11.8% prior; Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -1.8K prior; Live Register Level: No est v 396.9 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.1%e; Y/Y: No est v 8.1% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: no est v 3.8% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Mar PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.7% prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 6.1% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 25th: No est v -3.3% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -0.6% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior
- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Cameron question time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Inflation Expectations: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Trade Balance (ZAR): -1.5Be v +1.7B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Budget Balance (ZAR): -15.0Be v 14.5B prior
- 08:15 (US) Apr ADP Employment Change: +210Ke v +191K prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Advance GDP Annualized Q/Q: 1.2%e v 2.6% prior; Personal Consumption: 2.0%e v 3.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Advance GDP Price Index: 1.6%e v 1.6% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.2%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Employment Cost Index: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb GDP M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Industrial Product Price 0.6%e v 1.0% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v 5.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Treasury quarterly refunding announcement for 3-year, 10-year and 30-year notes and bonds
- 09:00 (US) Apr ISM Milwaukee: 56.0e v 56.03 prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.1% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Total Copper Production: No est v 452.5K prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Manufacturing Index Y/Y: +1.2%e v -2.0% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.3% prior
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): +1.1Be v -3.1B prior
- 09:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble at Bielefeld University
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -11.8Be v -9.5B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 3.0Be v 2.1B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 34.1%e v 33.7% prior
- 09:45 (US) Apr Chicago Purchasing Manager: 57.0e v 55.9 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.496T prior
- 10:00 (US) Annual Retail Sales Revisions
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at EU parliament election rally in Aachen
- 11:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble at EU parliament election rally in Paderborn
- 11:00 (EU) EU's Barroso in Washington
- 11:30 (UK) BOE's Dale in Parliament
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2021 and 2025 bonds
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-Year Bonds
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Mar National Unemployment Rate: No est v 10.7% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.6%e v 11.2% prior
- 12:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at EU parliament election rally in Frankfurt
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 0.25%; Fed QE3 Pace: $45Be v $55B prior (Pace of Treasury Purchases: $25Be v $30B prior; Pace of MBS Purchases: $20Be v $25B prior)

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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