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Thursday May 1, 2014 - 09:37:42 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Quiet session while markets are on holiday; UK earnings boost FTSE 100

Thu, 01 May 2014 5:20 AM EST

- EU session quiet with most markets in Europe and Asia closed for holiday.
- Lloyds Banking reports Q1 higher underlying profit but pretax and revenue comes in lower than expected. NII +10% y/y, other income -7% y/y
- The sterling tested 5-year high of $1.6921, after UK April PMI came in at a 5-month high
- UK 10-yr govt bond against the Germany 10-yr govt bond saw the spread increase 120.8bps (highest level since Q3 1998)
- (CN) China Apr Manufacturing PMI hits a 3-month high (50.4 V 50.5e)

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Markets fairly quiet on continental European holiday and ahead of Friday's US payrolls report, FTSE 100 supported by earnings, Vodafone declines amid report AT&T is interested in DirecTV, Novo Nordisk declines on weaker than expected results, Lloyds Q1 results supported by lower impairment charges, British Sky reports better than expected results , Shire to report results in US morning (approx 1% of the FTSE 100 index)

- Indices [Stoxx600 +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,808, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,880]

***By Sector***
- Health Care [Novo Nordisk NOVOB.DK -3% (Cut sales forecast)]
- Financials [Lloyds LLOY.UK +4% (Q1 profits rose), Schroders SDR.UK +3% (Q1 profits rose), Danske DANSKE.DK +1% (Q1 profits above ests)]
- Industrials [Rolls Royce RR.UK -2.5% (reaffirmed cautious outlook)]
- Energy [Salamander Energy SMDR.UK +8% (exploring strategic options)]
- Consumer Discretionary [British Sky BSY.UK +3% (Q3 results above ests); Aerl Lingus AERL.UK (Q1 results declined)]
- FTSE 100 Sectors [Financials +1%, Telecom +1%, Energy +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Utilities +0.3%; Industrials -0.9%, Basic Materials -0.7%, Technology -0.1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Labor Day holiday kept participation at a lull and helped the greenback consolidate its recent losses
- The UK markets were open and its April PMI Manufacturing data sent the GBP to fresh 5-year highs above the 1.69 handle. The yield differential between 10-year UK and German govt bonds approached 121bps and widest since Q3 1998
- The EUR/USD hovered just under the 1.39 handle. The recent rhetoric of the Euro turning into acceptance of the trend. Recent officials noted that the currency appreciation was due to a return of confidence now that the crisis has past. The 1.40 level remains a key psychological level and inflection point
- EONIA fixing at 0.40% on Wed reduced need for ECB action on liquidity and seen falling back towards the ECB's main refi rate in coming days. The recent spike likely due to month end movements

***Economic Data***
- (PE) Peru Apr CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5%e; Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.4% prior
- (JP) Japan Apr Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -11.0% v 14.5% prior, first decline in 8-months
- (IE) Ireland Apr Manufacturing PMI: 56.1 v 55.5 prior; 11th straight month of expansion and strongest since February 2011
- (UK) Apr Nationwide House Prices M/M: 1.2% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 10.9% v 9.8%e
- (AU) Australia Apr Commodity Index Y/Y: -12.6% v -12.5% prior; Commodity Index AUD: 100.2 v 104.3 prior
- (DK) Denmark Mar Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 4.0% v 4.2%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.1% v 5.3%e
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Manufacturing PMI: 53.4 v 53.7 prior; 10th straight month of expansion but slowest pace in nine months
- (UK) Mar Net Consumer Credit: 1.1B v 0.6Be; Net Lending: 1.8B v 1.7Be
- (UK) Mar Mortgage Approvals: 67.1K v 72.0Ke; second straight month of declines and lowest level since Sept

- (UK) Mar M4 Money Supply M/M: -2.3% v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v 0.9% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 2.9% v 3.2% prior
- (UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 57.3 v 55.4e; highest since Jan
- 05:00 (DK) Denmark Apr PMI Survey: No est v 62.8 prior

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (US) Apr Domestic Vehicle Sales: 12.8Me v 12.78M prior; Total Vehicle Sales: 16.20Me v 16.33M prior
- 07:30 (US) Apr Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 34.4K prior; Y/Y: No est v -30.2% prior
- 07:30 (US) May RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 50.0 prior
- 08:00 (US) Preview: April 2014 Vehicle Sales numbers expected throughout the day from major auto makers
- 08:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 320Ke v 329K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.70Me v 2.680M prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar Personal Income: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Personal Spending: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior

- 08:30 (US) Mar PCE Deflator M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar PCE Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Fed Chair Yellen speaks to Community Bankers in Washington
- 09:30 (CA) Canada Apr RBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.3 prior
- 09:45 (US) Apr Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.4 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Apr ISM Manufacturing: 55.4e v 53.7 prior; Prices Paid: 59.0e v 59.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Construction Spending M/M: 0.5%e v 0.1% prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (CA) Canada Fin Min Oliver in Senate Committee
- 13:30 (UK) BOE's Cunliffe in London




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