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Friday May 2, 2014 - 10:21:32 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Pfizer confirms higher bid for AstraZeneca; EU PMIs mixed but rising; US non-farm payrolls ahead

Fri, 02 May 2014 5:28 AM EST

- AZN: Pfizer confirms increased offer to approx 50.00/shr (1.845 shares in the combined entity and 1,598 pence in cash); total deal price 64B, above 63B was speculated (approx 4% premium)
- Royal Bank of Scotland showed improved results in Q1 with only Rev coming in a bit lower y/y
- InterContinental Hotels reported Q1 Global RevPAR +6% y/y; Issues $750M special dividend
- According to German newspaper Handelsblatt German tax revenue could be 643B in 2014, 2.5B more than expected.
- Troika 12th (final) review of Portugal program ends; to be presented at press conf at 13:00 local time May 2nd
- "Large-scale" attack by Ukraine military on the center of pro-Russian rebels stronghold town of Slavyansk; Geneva Accord likely to be a casualty of the operation
- European Manufacturing PMIs come in mixed but all in expansion territory (Euro Zone, France , Italy, Norway and Swiss beat while Germany, Spain, Poland, Turkey miss)
- Euro Zone Unemployment Rate comes in better than expected and at its lowest level since Dec 2012 (11.8% v 11.9%e)
- Focus on non-farm payrolls release with chatter of a reading above +250K
- Japan household spending spikes higher ahead of sales tax hike (+7.2% v +2.0%e (largest jump since 1975); **Reminder: Japan sales tax increase from 5% to 8% took eeffect on April 1st
- Japan Mar Jobless Rate in line at 3.6% and matched a 6-year low

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open mixed ahead of US payrolls data, RBS Q1 results supported by lower impairments and expenses, BASF opens lower despite slightly better than expected Q1 results, Pfizer confirms sweetened bid for AstraZeneca, German companies E.ON and MunichRe weighed down by ex-dividends, BNP underperforms in the banking sector on broker commentary, Russia's MICEX opened marginally lower amid headline risk related to Ukraine, Euro Zone PMIs mixed (Greece expands)

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3% at 3,190, FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,816, DAX flat at 9,608, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,474, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 10,470, FTSE MIB +0.5% at 21,892, SMI +0.1% at 8,484, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,880]

***By Sector***
- Healthcare [Astrazeneca AZN.UK flat (Pfizer confirmed higher bid); Merck MGaA MRK.DE -1% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [BASF BAS.DE flat (Q1 results slightly ahead, reaffirmed)]
- Financials [RBS RBS.UK +11% (Q1 profits above ests); MunichRe MUV2.DE -4.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Utilities [E.ON EOAN.DE -4% (ex-dividend)]
- Technology [Software AG SOW.DE -3% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [InterContinental Hotels IHG.UK +8% (special dividend); Carrefour CA.FR -3.5% (broker commentary)]
- Telecom [Deutsche Telecom DTE.DE +2% (results from T-Mobile)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Financials -1%, Technology -0.8%, Energy -0.6%, Utilities -0.4%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Industrials -0.3%, Basic Materials -0.3% Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%; Telecom +1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- FX continued its trend of low volatility in the major pairs with focus on US release of its April Non-Farm payroll data. The USD has been on the defensive throughout the week. Euro aided by fading of hope of immediate QE.
- Spain 10-year yield drops below 3.00% (1st time since 2005)

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Apr HSBC India Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 v 51.3 prior; 6th straight month of expansion (lowest level for 2014)
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending April 26th (y/y): +0.7% v +26.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr PMI Manufacturing: 55.5 v 55.5e; 12th straight month of expansion
- (NO) Norway Apr Manufacturing PMI: 51.2 v 52.1e ; 9th straight month of expansion
- (TR) Turkey Apr Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 v 51.7 prior; 9th straight month of expansion but slowest since Aug 2013
- (PL) Poland Apr Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 54.3e ; 10th straight month of expansion but slowest rate in 9 months
- (ES) Spain Apr Manufacturing PMI: 52.7 v 53.4e ; moves off 4-year highs but its 5th straight month of expansion
- (EU) ECB 190M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 123.0M prior; 46.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 30.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Apr PMI Manufacturing: 55.8 v 55.2e
- (CZ) Czech Republic Apr Manufacturing PMI: 56.5 v 55.7e; 12th straight month of expansion
- (IT) Italy Apr Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 v 52.9e; highest since Apr 2011 and 10th straight month of growth)
- (FR) France Apr Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.2 v 50.9e; 2nd straight month of growth
- (DE) Germany Apr Final Manufacturing PMI: 54.1 v 54.2e; lowest since Nov 2013 but its 10th straight month of growt
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.4 v 53.3e ; confirms 10th straight month of expansion

- (GR) Greece Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 v 49.7 prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -1.3% v +7.4%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.3% v +6.7%e
- (UK) Apr Construction PMI: 60.8 v 62.2e; 12th straight month of expansion but a six-month low
- (EU) Euro Area Apr Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 v 53.5 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Unemployment Rate: 11.8% v 11.9%e, lowest since Dec 2012

- (CY) Cyprus Apr CPI M/M: 0.2% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.6% v -2.3% prior
- (BE) Belgium Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.5% prior

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (IT) Italy Apr Budget Balance: No est v -18.4B prior
- (PT) Troika press conference on Portugal's 12th bailout out review
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly repayment in 3-Year LTRO Funds
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Apr Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +218Ke v +192K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +215Ke v +192K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +8Ke v -1K prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Unemployment Rate: 6.6%e v 6.7% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 12.7% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 63.2% prior; Change in Household Employment: +250Ke v +476K prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior; Average Weekly: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.6 prior
- 09:30 (MX) Mexico Apr Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.7 prior
- 09:45 (US) Apr ISM New York: 54.0e v 52.0 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Total Remittances: $1.9Be v $1.7B prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Factory Orders: 1.5%e v 1.6% prior
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Apr Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 459B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Apr New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 5.0% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Apr IMEF Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): 53.5e v 52.7 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): 51.2e v 51.2 prior
- 13:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble at EU parliament election rally in Schramberg
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Trade Balance: $250Me v $112M prior; Total Exports: $19.2Be v $17.6B prior; Total Imports: $18.9Be v $17.5B prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Apr Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.5 prior




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