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All Eyes on U.S. Credit Markets. Monday Holiday in Tokyo and London
|All Eyes on U.S. Credit Markets. Monday Holiday in Tokyo and London|
May 5, 2014 00:00 gmt
JP- Holiday, HSBC PMI. GB- Holiday, EZ- PPI.
US- Markit & ISM Service PMIs
| EURUSD 1.3874
|| U.S. 2.59% -2bp
|| North America:Lower|
| EURJPY 141.85
|| Bund 1.45% -2bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6872
|| GILT 2.64% 0bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.24
|| JGB 0.62% 0bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP/GB- Holiday, HSBC PMI, US- Markit & ISM Service PMI's
- The week ahead sees a couple of holidays on Monday, but U.S. Service PMIs are due.
- A key focus over the weekend has been the conflict in Ukraine. Apparently there had been talk at one point on Friday that Russian President Putin was going to use expected inaction at a UN Security Council meeting as pretext for moving into Ukraine to establish order. Fer of military action was the reason why yields on U.S. Treasuries went into a free fall on a flight-to- safety bid.
- Jay has come up with an interesting theory about where EUR demand ahas been coming from recently. We KNOW that China has been actively driving the CNY weaker to stimulate economic growth via their export sector. That means the central bank has been BUYING USD and SELLING CNY in the forex markets to drive the CNY weaker. That means the central bank has been accumulating excess USD that it needs to do something with.
- These USD initially go into their forex reserves. We KNOW also that the PBOC has a forex Reserve diversification policy, which means that a number of those dollars are going to be switched into EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, etc. Presumably they also have been buying U.S. treasuries with the dollars they continue to hold.
- I don't know if Jay's theory is correct, but it sounds logical to me, especially as we KNOW that the European Central Bank has been trying to jawbone the EUR weaker in recent weeks. One thing interesting about forex is that the policy decisions of one country can directly impact the economic well-being of another.
- We will be closely monitoring the ECB commentaries on Thursday to see what is said about the value of their common currency. We are not expecting any ECB policy changes. From a trading point of view keep a close eye on USDCNY because that will tell you in real-time what the PBOC is up to.
- On Tuesday the second wave of PMIs (Service) will be released. The week also features Central Bank meetings (Australia, England and Eurozone) and then Canadian Employment data on Friday.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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