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Monday May 5, 2014 - 10:04:59 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: EU Commission trims 2014, 2015 inflation forecasts; Wacker Chemie falls on lower than expectedQ1 EBITDA

Mon, 05 May 2014 5:22 AM EST

- (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras Expected to ask fellow EU finance ministers to start to consider additional debt relief for Greece today - Greek press
- China Apr Final HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 48.1 (4th consecutive contraction) V 48.4e suggesting that Chinese economy was facing a period of structural slowdown
- EU finance ministers meet in Brussels (Eurogroup on Monday and EcoFin on Tuesday)
- EU Commission Spring European Economic Forecast trimmed 2014 and 2015 inflation outlook to 0.8% and 1.2% respectively. It predicted a gradual recovery through 2015
- UBSN.CH: France is putting heavy pressure on UBS over French citizens with Swiss Bank accounts - Les Echos
- (EU) ECB willing to act and spell out options - Spanish press
- Weakness in EU equities led by chemicals, autos and banks; quieter session with UK and Japan closed

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed ahead of this week's event risks which include EU Commission Spring Economic Forecasts and Thursdays ECB meeting, FTSE 100 closed for bank holiday, Declines in Banca Monte Paschi weigh on FTSE MIB, DAX declines amid weakness in BASF and Wincor, Credit Suisse shares weighed down by concerns related to ongoing US tax probe, Russia's MICEX marginally weaker amid situation in Ukraine.

- Indices [Stoxx50 -1.3%, FTSE 100 closed, DAX -1.2% at 9,428, CAC-40 -1.1% at 4,407, IBEX-35 -1% at 10,363, FTSE MIB -1% at 21,537, SMI -0.9% at 8,367, S&P 500 Futures -0.4% at 1,868]

***By Sector***
- Technology [Wincorp Nixdorf WIN.DE -2.5% (Q2 results below ests), SAP.DE -1% (surprise resignation of CTO)]
- Energy [Nordex NDX1.De +3% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Wacker Chemie WCH.DE -3% (Q1 EBITDA below ests)]
- Industrials [BASF BAS.DE -3% (ex dividend)]
- Financials [Credit Suisse CSGN.CH -2.5% (concerns related to US tax probe)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Basic Materials -1.9%, Industrials -1.4%, Technology -1.3%, Consumer Cyclical -1.2%, Financials -1.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -1%, Utilities -0.8%, Energy -0.8% Telecom -0.2%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- The key event for the week will be the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Analyst believe that there was a high probability of no action by the central bank this week and that the June meeting would be of more importance (fresh staff projections was released then).
- Japan was closed for a holiday but the JPY currency was firmer again the major pair on risk aversion flows. The continued contraction in China PMI was the excuse in today's session as more signs that the Chinese economy was facing a period of structural slowdown

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Apr Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 v 48.0e, 6th straight contraction
- (CH) Swiss Q1 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 1.22 v 1.23 prior
- (HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance: 759.3M v 765.9M prelim
- (TR) Turkey Apr CPI M/M: 1.3% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 9.4% v 8.9%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 9.7% v 9.3%e
- (TR) Turkey Apr PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 13.0% v 13.1%e
- (EU) ECB 751M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 190M prior; 39.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 46.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) SNB: Swiss sight deposits for week ended May 2nd: 310.5B v 312.9B prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar Service Production M/M: -0.2% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Mar Industrial Production M/M: -3.8% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -4.5%1.5%e
- (SE) Sweden Mar Industrial Orders M/M: 1.1% v 4.2%e; Y/Y: -11.2% v -5.6%e
- (NO) Norway Mar Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.8%e
- (TW) Taiwan Apr Foreign Reserves: $421.5B v $419.2B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.7%e
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Kagiso Manufacturing PMI: 47.4 v 50.2e; first contraction in three months

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (RU) Russia Apr Reserve Fund: No est v $87.5B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $87.5B prior
- (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Q1 Unemployment Rate: No est v 24.1% prior
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2.0-4.0B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (PT) Portugal Econ Min de Lima
- 08:00 (EU) European Finance Ministers (Eurogroup) meeting in Brussels
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announce siz eof upcoming 2017,2020, 2028 bonds
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Mar Economic Activity M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.9% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.6B total in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (SG) Singapore Apr Purchasing Managers Index: 51.0e v 50.8 prior; Electronics Sector: 51.8e v 51.6 prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB Drain
- 09:45 (US) Apr Final Markit US Services PMI: No est v 54.2 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 54.9 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing: 54.1e v 53.1 prior
- 10:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel gives EU Election Campaign speech in Ingolstadt
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (CA) Canada Min Sorenson speaks at C.D. Howe
- 12:00 (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg)




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