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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: EU service PMIs generally better than expected; Barclays, Lufthansa and Adidas all fail to meet estimates


Tue, 06 May 2014 5:19 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- LXK: Announces SEK40.05 cash offer for content and process management software solutions company ReadSoft AB (118% premium to closing price)
- Barclays failed to beat y/y or meet analyst expectations in Q1 results. Shares opened -2.2%
- Australia Mar Trade Balance registers its 4th consecutive month of surplus but lowest in 3-month low (+0.7B vs. 1.0Be; Exports m/m: -2.0% v 0.0% prior
- RBA leaves interest rates steady as expected
- USD remains on the defensive after European Services PMI exceeded expectations (exception was Germany)
- BMW beat Net and EBIT expectations in Q1 Rev fell a bit short at 18.2B; Affirmed FY14; Opened higher by 1.1%
- Both Lufthansa and Adidas failed to meet expectations, both German giants affirmed FY14 outlooks
- ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg): Banking union needs to ensure monetary policy is properly transmitted; reiterates do not see risk of deflation in the medium term
- Spain Net Unemployment continued its improvement in April (MoM: -111.6K v -51.0Ke); Spain PM Rajoy: Have broken the trend of the destruction of jobs

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open mostly higher following gains in US earnings, DAX lags amid weaker than expected PMI data, European corporate earnings mixed (UBS profits above, Barclays weaker than ests, BMW inline, Balfour Beatty warns, PostNL positive outlook, Fresenius Medical below ests, Lufthansa above ests), Euro Zone Services PMI mostly above ests (Germany below ests), Russia MICEX opens higher

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.3% at 6,800 (closed prior session), DAX -0.3% at 9,503, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,455, IBEX-35 +0.2% at 10,501, FTSE MIB -0.1% at 21,623, SMI flat at 8,409, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,878]

***By Sector***
- Financials [UBS UBSN.CH +1% (Q1 profits above ests); Barclays BARC.UK -3% (Q1 revenues below ests), Aberdeen Asset Management ADN.UK -3% (H1 results declined)]
- Technology [Fugro FUR.NL -6% (cautious outlook)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Solvay SOLB.BE +3% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Industrials [PostNL PNL.NL +10% (upbeat outlook), DSM DSM.NL +3% (reaffirmed outlook), GEA Group G1A.DE +3% (Q1 profits above ests), Symrise SY1.DE +2% (Q1 results above ests); Balfour Beatty BBY.UK -15% (profit warning), BMW BMW.DE -0.5% (Q1 profits above ests, sales below)]
- Health Care [Fresenius Medical FME.DE -1% (Q1 results below ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [DMG Mori GIL.DE +6% (Q1 results above ests), Just Eat JE.UK +4% (upbeat outlook), Lufthansa LHA.DE +1% (Q1 results above ests),Axel Springer SPR.DE +1% (Q1 profits above ests)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy +0.5%, Utilities +0.4%, Financials +0.2%, Industrials +0.2%, Telecom +0.1%, Technology +0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat; Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.2%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- The greenback remained on the defensive with the USD Index hitting a 6-month low. Better European Services PMI helped to propel the EUR/USD above the 1/39 handle for a multi-week high.
- The GBP was aided by press reported that BOE's MPC might actually discuss raising interest rates at this week's meeting (would be first time in the current cycle). Article noted that no analysts were actually expecting BOE to hike rates this week but dissent among members could arise in the months ahead
- The 10-year Spanish/German Gov't bond spread dips below 150bps; tightest since Aug 2010

***Economic Data***
- (AU) RBA leaves Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50%, as expected for its 8th straight pause
- (IE) Ireland Apr Services PMI: 61.0 v 60.7 prior; Composite PMI: 60.8 v 59.0 prior
- (IN) India Apr Services PMI: 48.5 v 47.5 prior (lowest since Sept 2013 and its 10th straight
- (ES) Spain Apr Net Unemployment M/M: -111.6K v -51.0Ke
- (HU) Hungary Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.3% v 6.7% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar National Trade Balance (CZK): 16.9Be v 13.6B prior; Nominal Trade Balance: 37.0Be v 34.0B prior
- (EU) ECB 2.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 751M prior; 40.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 39.1B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain Apr Spain Services PMI: 56.5 v 54.2e; Highest reading since Mar 2007 and its 6th straight month of expansion); Composite PMI: 56.3 v 54.2 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Apr PMI Services: 49.4 v 50.2 prior; lowest since Jun 2013
- (SE) Sweden Mar Household Consumption M/M: 0.6% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.1% prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Services PMI: 51.1 v 50.5e; Composite PMI: 52.6 v 51.1 prior
- (FR) France Apr Final Services: 50.4 v 50.3e (confirms second straight month of growth); Composite PMI: 50.6 v 50.5e
- (DE) Germany Apr Final Services PMI: 54.7 v 55.0e (confirms 12th straight month of expansion); Composite PMI: 56.1 v 56.3e

- (EU) Eurozone Apr Final Services PMI: 53.1 v 53.1e; Composite PMI: 54.0 v 54.0e
- (NO) Norway Apr Unemployment Rate: 2.8% v 2.8%e
- (BR) Brazil Apr FIPE (Sao Paulo) CPI: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (RU) Russia Apr Reserve Fund: $87.9B v $87.5B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $87.6B v $87.5B prior
- (UK) Apr Services PMI: 58.7 v 57.8e (highest since Dec and 16th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 59.2 v 57.8 prior
- (EU) Euro Area Apr EU Services: 54.5 v 53.5 prior (11th straight month of expansion and highest since May 2011); Composite PMI: 55.1 v 54.2 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Retail Sales M/M: +0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e
- (RO) Romania Central Bank left its Interest Rate unchanged 3.50%, as expected (2nd straight pause)

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (EU) European Finance Ministers (EcoFin) meeting in Brussels
- (DE) Germany's Independent Tax Estimate Panel begins 2-day meeting in Berlin
- (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) in Brussels
- (CH) Swiss Parliament's Lower House holds Special Session Bern
- (US) Fed's Stein speaks on the economy in New York
- (US) Indiana holds Primary Elections
- (US) North Carolina holds Primary Elections
- (US) Ohio holds Primary Elections
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (CO) Colombia Apr CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.6% prior
- (BR) Brazil Mar CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 82.6% prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 1.5B in 3-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB to drain 167.5B in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP program
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.2% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Mar Trade Balance: -$40.0Be v -$42.3B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$300Me v C$290M prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Consumer Confidence Index: 90.0e v 88.8 prior
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Services PMI: No est v 51.0 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.0 prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (US) May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.9e v 48.0 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Apr Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally adj): 54.5e v 55.2 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 61.8 prior
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announces size of upcoming 4.5% 2034 Gilt auction
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 11:00 (US) fed to purchase $0.85-1.0B in bonds
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $25b in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 3-Year Notes

 

 

 

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