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Tuesday May 6, 2014 - 15:28:36 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Good Data Fails to Help US and Euro Equities Catch a Bid

Tue, 06 May 2014 11:20 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB drained 165.5B vs. 167.5B target in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP program (**Note: ECB has now failed to fully sterilize bond purchases the past four weeks)
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e May 3rd: w/w -2.0%; y/y: +2.0%
- (BR) Brazil Mar PPI Manufacturing M/M: -0.2% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 8.0% v 8.2% prior
- (RU) Russia Apr CPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 7.3% v 7.3%e; CPI YTD: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (RU) Russia Apr CPI Core M/M: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.4%e
- (US) Mar Trade Balance: -$40.4B v -$40.0Be
- (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$80M v C$300Me
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e May 3rd: +4.4% y/y, Apr MTD: 0.0% m/m; Apr MTD +3.6% y/y
- (MX) Mexico Apr Consumer Confidence Index: 90.3 v 90.0e
- (BR) Brazil Apr Services PMI: 50.4 v 51.0 prior; Composite PMI: 49.9 v 51.0 prior
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 210.3B v 210.2B prio- 10:00 (US) May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.9e v 48.0 prior
- (CA) Canada Apr Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally adj): 54.1 v 54.5e

- European and US equity markets have been under pressure this morning despite the decent European services PMI reports and the strong April US trade balance data. In the background, Ukraine is boiling away and financials continue to sell off on nervousness about possible DoJ action. Meanwhile, the 10-year benchmark yield is back below 2.600%. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.49%, the S&P500 is down 0.46% and the Nasdaq is down 0.53%.

- The March US trade report was very strong, as exports rebounded to the second highest level on record, led by strong gains in sales of aircraft, autos and farm goods. The March trade deficit declined to $40.4 billion, down slightly from the February imbalance of $41.9 billion, which was the biggest trade gap in five months.

- The greenback remained on defensive as US yields remain lower and ECB rhetoric against the strong euro morphs into a grudging acceptance that the FX appreciation stems from a return of confidence. Today's decent services PMI data helped bolster the latter point. EUR/USD gained more than a big figure after the good final April European services PMI data, rising from around 1.3875 to 1.3955 before turning around ahead of 1.40. GBP/USD approached the key 1.70 level.

- Large US bank names losing ground for a third consecutive session as investors sell the names on sentiment that the US DoJ is preparing for more action against the banks. Last Friday, Citigroup said federal prosecutors, Mexico's banking regulator and the SEC were looking into its Mexico subsidiary, Banamex. Yesterday, Attorney General Eric Holder said "there is no such thing as too big to jail.''

- Shares of Twitter fell 10% this morning (-8% in the premarket) in heavy volume after the second post-IPO share lockup expired. After the slide, shares are trading at all-time post-IPO lows of $34.65, after 475M shares became eligible for sale. Co-founders Jack Dorsey and Evan Williams and CEO Dick Costolo said in April they had no intentions to sell their shares, but other insiders are likely selling, especially because no insiders sold stock during the IPO.

- Merck has reached a deal to sell its consumer care business to Bayer for $14.2 billion in cash. Merck also agreed to enter a collaboration deal with Bayer for various drugs in development, including various early-stage pulmonary hypertension compounds, which includes giving Bayer a $1 billion upfront payment. It said it would use the proceeds to fund development (rather than capital returns) and shares of MRK are in the red this morning.

- Mosaic's first quarter earnings were a bit short of consensus expectations, while the pricing guidance it offered for the second quarter failed to show the sort of growth analysts were looking for. Mosaic did talk a lot about very strong phosphate and potash demand, but said it would not start seeing benefits from this trend until the second half. Shares of MOS are down 3%.

- Office Depot is up a whopping 18% in the early going after a strong first quarter earnings report. The company's EPS was more than twice the expected amount and it hiked its FY14 operating income guidance. However, much of the strength is coming from finalization of its retail footprint strategy, which calls for closing at least 400 stores by the end of FY16.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $25b in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 3-Year Notes
- 19:50 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) April 7-8 meeting minutes
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior;
- 21:45 (CN) China Services Apr PMI Services: No est v 51.9 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 49.3 prior




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