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Wednesday May 7, 2014 - 10:05:05 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Euro and sterling await rate decisions; EU banks report mixed results

Wed, 07 May 2014 5:27 AM EST

- Start of EU session was dominated by results from many of the major names spanning all the major industries. Results were mixed, many thought that the year would continue to get better.
- Euro and GBP pairs were holding below key psychological levels of 1.40 and 1.70 respectively ahead of Thursday rate decisions
- Siemens CEO: Will decide after due diligence if will make offer for Alstom
- Spain Budget Min Montoro: Seasonally adj tax rev up 6.3% in April
- Henkel CFO: Have about 4.5B to use on acquisitions
- Australia Mar Retail Sales hit a 8-month low (MoM: 0.1% v 0.4%e)
- China Services Apr PMI Services 51.4 v 51.9 prior)
- Thailand PM thrown out of office after Constitutional Court ruled she abused her powers

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following negative leads from Asia and the US, Earnings continue to be mixed (Fiat, Commerzbank and Siemens below ests; Henkel and Sky Deutschland above ests), SocGen results hurt by large write down related to Russia, HSBC reports Q1 profit decline amid lower revenues

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.3% at 6,776, DAX -0.1% at 9,458, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,419, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 10,412, FTSE MIB -0.9% at 21,317, SMI +0.2% at 8,407, S&P 500 futures flat at 1,864]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Staples [Sainsbury SBRY.UK +1.5% (FY results above ests)]
- Industrials [Fiat F.IT -8% (Q1 results below ests), Finmecannica FNC.IT -4% (reported Q1 loss); Henkel HEN3.DE +3% (Q1 results above ests), Siemens SIE.DE +2% (Did not disclose bid for Alstom, reaffirmed forecast)]
- Financials [Experian EXPN.UK -5% (cautious outlook), Commerzbank CBK.DE -3% (Q1 results below ests), SocGen GLE.FR -1% (write down related to Russia) Credit Agricole ACA.FR (Q1 profits in line, revs rose)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [CRH CRH.UK -2% (cautious outlook)]
- Telecom [Sky Deutschland SKYD.DE +3% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Stoxx600 Sectors [Telecom -0.7%, Basic Materials -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%, Financials -0.1%; Energy +0.4% Utilities +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical flat, Technology flat, Industrials flat]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- US bond yields have been driving the greenback lower in recent sessions (defying the recent spat of 'better economic US releases). Dealers also noting that Chinese reserve reallocation from trying to weaken its CNY currency also behind the lower US bond yields. The overall FX price action was steady in the session ahead of the ECB and BOE rate decision on Thursday (May 8th). Both the Euro and GBP pairs were holding below key psychological levels of 1.40 and 1.70 respectively.
- Three consecutive sessions of JPY strength drove the Nikkei225 Index to 3-week low just above 14,000. The USD/JPY pair held a key support at 101.30 and was at 101.55 ahead of the NY morning.

***Economic Data***
- (MY) Malaysia Mar Trade Balance (MYR): 9.6B v 7.7Be; Exports Y/Y: 8.4% v 9.2%e; Imports Y/Y: 0.5% v 5.7%e
- (RU) Russia Apr Services PMI: 46.8 v 48.8e (2nd straight contraction and lowest reading since May 2009); Composite PMI: 47.6 v 47.8 prior
- (CH) Swiss Apr Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.2%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (DE) Germany Mar Factory Orders M/M: -2.8% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 4.3%e
- (AU) Australia Apr Foreign Reserves: A$62.1B v A$62.2B prior
- (FR) France Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.7% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v +0.5%e
- (FR) France Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.7% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.1%e

- (FR) France Mar Trade Balance: -4.9B v -4.7Be
- (CH) Swiss Apr Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 438.9B v 438.4Be
- (AT) Austria Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: +0.3% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.9% prior
- (DK) Denmark Mar Industrial Production M/M: 4.7% v 1.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Mar Industrial Output Y/Y: 8.7% v 8.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 12.8% v 6.1% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.2% v 7.3%e
- (EU) ECB 651M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 2M prior; 34.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 40.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany Apr Construction PMI: 49.7 v 52.5 prior
- (TW) Taiwan Apr Trade Balance: $2.5B v $1.9Be; Exports Y/Y: 6.2% v 5.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 5.8% v 7.2%e
- (UK) Apr New Car Registrations Y/Y: 8.2% v 17.7% prior
- (CZ) Czech Apr International Reserves: $58.4B v $57.5B prior
- (IL) Israel Apr Foreign Currency Balance: $86.5B v $85.6B prior
- (EU) Eurozone Apr Retail PMI: 53.1 v 49.2 prior
- (DE) Germany Apr Retail PMI: 53.1 v 50.2 prior
- (FR) France Apr Retail PMI: 50.3 v 50.0 prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Retail PMI: 49.5 v 46.5 prior
- (IS) Iceland Apr Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -7.0B v -0.6B prior
- (SG) Singapore Apr Foreign Reserves: $275.2B v $272.9B prior
- (IS) Iceland Q1 Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 4.5% prior

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (IT) Italy PM Renzi with EU's Barroso with investor Soros attend Florence Conference
- (EU) EU President Van Rompuy and EU's Barroso meet Japan's Abe in Brussels
- (ZA) South Africa holds General Election
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 1.2B in 0.125% I/L 2044 Gilts
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in new 0.5% 2019 Bobl
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Industrial Production M/M: No est v 4.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 2nd: No est v -5.9% prior
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Repurchase Rate unchanged at 0.05%
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.6%e v 1.5% prior
- 07:00 (US) Fed's Stein in NY
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron weekly question time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Industrial Production M/M: -2.4%e v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: -3.0%e v +5.0% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: -0.5%e v +1.8% prior; Unit Labor Costs: +2.3%e v -0.1% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Apr Trade Balance: $1.1Be v $1.7B prior; Total Exports: No est v $7.3B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.6B prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Apr Copper Exports: No est v $3.6B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Building Permits M/M: +4.0%e v -11.6% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Leading Indicators M/M: No est v -0.04 prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Real Wage M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chair Yellen testifies to Joint Economic Committee
- 10:00 (Pl) Poland Central Bank Gov Belka post rate decision press conference
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Vehicle Production: No est v 277.3K prior; Vehicle Domestic sales: No est v 85.7K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 230.8K prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes
- 13:30 (UK) BOE's Haldan in York
- 15:00 (US) Mar Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $16.5B prior




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