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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets wait BoE and ECB rate decisions, Dollar continues weakness; Barclay's restructuring

 
Thu, 08 May 2014 5:25 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- BOE and ECB rate decision in focus with no changes expected. Draghi likely to maintain dovish tone at press conference
- ESM's Regling: Portugal should continue with reforms; its next budget is an important step
- Sweden FSA Statement: Raises risk-weight for mortgages to 25% from 15%
- BARC.UK: Provides Strategy update: to cut 20,000 jobs total under new plan; 14.0K by end of 2014; to create bad bank
- China Apr Trade Balance registers a slightly better surplus ($18.5B v $17.7Be) with both Exports and Imports coming in positive (Exports Y/Y: +0.9% v -2.8%e; Imports Y/Y: +0.8% v -2.0%e)
- Australia April Employment Reports slightly beats expectations (+14.2K V +8.8Ke); All of the new jobs were in the full-time segment

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets opened higher amid gains in Russia and ahead of the ECB decision, Barclays supported by Strategy update, German companies rise following earnings report (Bilfinger Berger, Kloeckner, Metro, Rheinmetall, ProsiebenSat), UK utility Centrica warns on outlook, Swedish airline SAS warns, Deutsche Telekom weighed down by decline in EBITDA margin.

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.5% at 6,830, DAX +0.6% at 9,577, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4,470, IBEX-35 +0.9% at 10,504, FTSE MIB +1% at 21,496, SMI +0.3% at 8,450, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,875]

***By Sector***
- Financials [Barclays BARC.UK +4.5% (strategy update), Prudential PRU.UK +2% (Q1 profits +29% y/y), Delta Lloyd DL.NL +1% (Q1 profits rose); Allianz ALV.DE -2.5% (ex dividend), MunichRe MUV2.DE -1% (Q1 Rev below ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [ProsiebenSat PSM.DE +4% (Q1 results above ests), Metro MEO.DE +3% (Q2 profits above ests), Adecco ADEN.CH +1% (Q1 results above ests); SuperGroup SGP.UK -12% (profit warning), SAS SAS.SE -3% (profit warning)]
- Consumer Staples [WM Morrison MRW.UK -1% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Kloeckner KCO.DE +4% (Q1 profits above ests)]
- Telecom [BT BT.UK +2.5% (Q4 profits rose); Freenet FNTN.DE -4% (Q1 sales below ests), Deutsche Telekom -0.5% (Q1 profits below ests)]
- Technology [Sage Group SGE.UK -4% (H1 sales below ests)]
- Energy [Repsol REP.ES +1% (Q1 profits above ests); Phoenix Solar PS4.DE -11% (reported Q1 loss)]
- Utilities [Enel ENEL.IT +2% (Q1 profits above ests); Centrica CNA.UK -2% (profit warning)]
- Healthcare [Stada SAZ.DE +2% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +1.4%, Basic Materials +0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.7%, Energy +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Industrials +0.3%. Technology flat; Financials -0.4%, Telecom -0.3%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- The ECB rate decision is the main event during the NY morning. No changes expected in its policy. Dealers continue to believe that recent CPI readings remained dangerously close to debasing medium-term inflation expectations but June would be a more pivotal policy meeting. Draghi press conference should be "super-dovish' in tone but talk might not be enough to derail the euro appreciation trend. The key levels heading into the rate decision is 1.4030 which represents a 10% rise from the lows seen back in 2013 for the pair. ECB members have noted that such a rise in the currency take away about 0.5% from inflation. The technical picture would also burst open if the EUR/USD established a weekly close above 1.4030 and could target the all-time high of 1.60

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Apr SECO Consumer Confidence: 1 v 3e
- (DE) Germany Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 4.4%e
- (FI) Finland Mar Preliminary Trade Balance: -110M v -65M prior
- (UK) Apr Halifax House Prices M/M: -0.2% v +0.9%e; 3M/Y: 8.5% v 9.1%e
- (ES) Spain Mar Industrial Output NSA Y/Y:8.1 % v 2.0%e; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.6%e
- (TR) Turkey Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.7%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.1% v 7.2%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Preliminary Trade Balance: 675.0M v 860.0Me
- (EU) ECB 29M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 651M prior; 23.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 34.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Apr CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Apr CPI Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr Average House Prices (SEK): 2.158M v 2.314M prior
- (NL) Netherlands Apr CPI M/M: 0.5 v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.2 v 0.8% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.4%e
- (SE) Sweden Apr Budget Balance (SEK): +11.1B v -2.9B prior
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left its Deposit Rates unchanged at 1.50%, as expected
- (NO) Norway Mar Industrial Production M/M: 2.3% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 7.1% v 5.2% prior
- (NO) Norway Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.8% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.1% prior
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) left its Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Apr World Food Prices Y/Y: 209.3 v 212.8 prior
- (GR) Greece Feb Unemployment Rate: 26.5% v 26.6%e
- (MY) Malaysia Apr Foreign Reserves: $131.2B v $131.1B prior
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Apr Balance-Sheet Aggregates: ECB funding to Italian banks: 210.5B v 211.0B (**Note: Funding has declined in 14 of the last 15 months)

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (CH) Swiss Parliament Holds Special Session in Bern
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Fin Min Schaeuble attend Europe Conference, Berlin
- (CH) SNB's Danthine speaks in Lausanne
- (AU) RBA's Debelle speaks in Sydney
- (RU) Russia President Putin holds regional leader meeting
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Gross Reserves: $ v $49.6Be; Net Reserves: $ v $45.1Be
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 7.50%
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Central Bank (BNM) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 3.00%
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr CPI M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- 06:00(IE) Ireland Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e May 2nd: No est v $482.7B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 1.4% prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision expected. Expected to leave Key Rates Unchanged; expected the ECB to leave Main Refi Rate unchanged at 0.25%; Expected to leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%; Expected to leave Marginal Lending Facility unchanged at 0.75%
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Apr CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 3.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Plosser in NY
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Apr Housing Starts (Annualized): 175.5Ke v 156.8K prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 325Ke v 344K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.76Me v 2.771M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar New Housing Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi holds post rate decision Press Conference
- 08:45 (EU) NATO Sec Gen Rasmussen press conference in Tallinn
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr CPI M/M: -0.1%e v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.8% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior
- 09:25 (US) Fed's Evans speaks at Bank Regulation Conference in Chicago
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo speaks at Bank Regulation Conference in Chicago
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.55-0.80B in bonds
- 12:30 (CH) SNB's Danthine in Lausanne
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Bullard gives Welcome at Household Finance Conference
- 16:30 (NZ) RBNZ Dep Gov Spencer on housing
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.00%
- 21:00 (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 21:30 (CN) China Apr PPI Y/Y: -1.9%e v -2.3% prior
- 21:30 (CN) China Apr CPI Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.4% prior

 

 

 

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