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Friday May 9, 2014 - 03:40:43 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 09-May-2014 -0339 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Equities in the Western Hemisphere appear stronger than those in the Orient.

The Dow (16550.97, +32.43) and Dax (9607.40, +86.10) rose for the second day yesterday. The overall sideways consolidation continues with chances of an eventual break on the upside in the coming weeks. It would be wrong to sell Stocks.

Even the Nikkei (14247.57, +83.79) is seeing some short-covering yesterday, possibly on the small rise in Dollar-Yen. The Nikkei and the Shanghai (2010, -6) have crucial Supports near 13800 and 2000 respectively on the 3-day Candles. That said, the Nikkei is possibly the most vulnerable of all the 4 Major Indices reviewed here. A rise past 102.20 in Dollar-Yen will be crucial o bring some strength back into the Nikkei.

The Nifty (6659.85) was stable yesterday but remains vulnerable to a further dip towards 6600 while below 6700.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1289.555) dropped sharply as resistance near 1315.32 holds well. The gains in equities have curbed demand for the metal as it trades lower for the 3rd consecutive session. Crucial Support in the 1290-1279 region may help it to bounce towards 1325. However, a break below 1279, if seen, could bring a fall to 1260 on the downside.

Silver (19.17) is also trading just above crucial near-term Support near 19.00-18.65. This if holds may take the prices to 20.2-20.5 levels from where it may again fall back towards 19. Overall long term downtrend persists.

Copper (3.0580) is ranged sideways for the last few sessions and may trade in the 3-3.05 region unless we see a break on either side. The recent rally from 2.877 (Mar’14) seems to have ended with no signs of bullish signal. A fall below 3 could push it to 2.90.

WTI (100.47) has dropped a bit from 100.99 while in an upward rally targeting 102 in the near term. Above 100, the near term looks bullish with some ranged moves in the 100.4-101 region. A break above 102.6 may target 105 in the coming weeks. Brent (108.06) is trading high and may reach 110-111in the near term if it breaks two crucial resistances near 108.17 and 109.16. Overall it is bullish.

FOREX
A bit of short-covering strength has come back into the Dollar. It is to be seen now if it gets support from US Yields to move higher.

The Euro (1.3837) has come off sharply from a high near 1.3994 on Draghi's hints of easing in June. The lack of follow-through buying above 1.3967 followed by the fall below 1.3900 could be a sign of longer term weakness, but a break below 1.3780 is needed to confirm.

The Pound (1.6918) maintains relative strength above 1.6900 even though it has been seeing profit-taking from 1.6996 over the last three days. The medium-term trend remains up, but Support at 1.6880 needs to hold today in order to avoid a dip towards 1.6780 next week. The EUR-GBP (0.8178) continues to fall and threatens to break below previous low near 0.6158.

Dollar-Yen (101.70) has been finding Trendline Support just above 101.35 this week but needs to rise past 102.20 in order to restore strength in the longer term bullish trend. Else, there may be near-term danger of a break below 101.35 which could lead to a test of more crucial long-term Support at 100.70. But, that the Euro-Yen (140.73) has come off sharply from 142.36 (on the Euro's fall) will make it hard for Dollar-Yen to move up significantly.

The Aussie (0.9359) is seeing some profit-taking just below 0.94, but has important Support at 0.9340. It continues to look relatively strong against the Euro, Yen and Pound and so might be able to stand relatively firm against the Dollar as well.

Although the Dollar-Rupee NDF rate seems to be trading low near 59.8750, there could be some chances of a bounce today on the Dollar's strength against the Majors overnight.

INTEREST RATES
The US yield spreads saw a bounce from the supports near 0.78% for the 30-10Yr (0.83%) and 1.71% for the 30-5Yr (1.83%). The 5Yr yield (1.62%) has come to test the support at current levels while the 10Yr (2.61%) remained stable and the 30Yr (3.44%) saw a bounce. All in all, we may see the US yield curve steeping in the coming months.

In Europe, the Euro (1.3837) saw a huge drop after the ECB Monetary Policy statement yesterday. The ECB kept the rates unchanged and Draghi hinted that the ECB will wait for the June forecasts and then decide on further course of action. The German 10Yr (1.44%) is still trading low and can target 1.40% while below 1.45%.

The BOE also kept its interest rates unchanged even though the Economic conditions have shown signs of improvement and unemployment falling below the BOE’s threshold limit of 7%.

The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.42%) is testing support at current levels and we may see a bounce from here taking the yields higher. The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (2.01%) has remained stable as the Dollar-Yen (101.70) trades lower.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.76%) has come off from the resistance near 8.80% and is vulnerable to a fall towards 8.60% while below 8.80%.
INTEREST RATES
The US yield spreads saw a bounce from the supports near 0.78% for the 30-10Yr (0.83%) and 1.71% for the 30-5Yr (1.83%). The 5Yr yield (1.62%) has come to test the support at current levels while the 10Yr (2.61%) remained stable and the 30Yr (3.44%) saw a bounce. All in all, we may see the US yield curve steeping in the coming months.

In Europe, the Euro (1.3837) saw a huge drop after the ECB Monetary Policy statement yesterday. The ECB kept the rates unchanged and Draghi hinted that the ECB will wait for the June forecasts and then decide on further course of action. The German 10Yr (1.44%) is still trading low and can target 1.40% while below 1.45%.

The BOE also kept its interest rates unchanged even though the Economic conditions have shown signs of improvement and unemployment falling below the BOE’s threshold limit of 7%.

The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.42%) is testing support at current levels and we may see a bounce from here taking the yields higher. The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (2.01%) has remained stable as the Dollar-Yen (101.70) trades lower.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.76%) has come off from the resistance near 8.80% and is vulnerable to a fall towards 8.60% while below 8.80%.

DATA TODAY

1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST CN PPI (YoY)
...Expected -1.80 % ...Previous -2.30 % ...Actual -2.0 %

1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST CN CPI (YoY)
...Expected 2.10 % ...Previous 2.40 % ...Actual 1.80 %

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK Trade Balance
...Expected -9.00 £ Bln ...Previous -9.09 £ Bln

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Labour Force
...Expected 14.90 K ...Previous 42.90 K

DATA YESTERDAY

Australia Labour Force
...Expected 7.50 K ...Previous 21.9 K ...Actual 14.2 K

CN Trade Bal
...Expected 15.20 $ Bln ...Previous 7.70 $ Bln ...Actual 18.5 $ Bln

BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50 % ...Actual 0.50 %

ECB Meeting
...Expected 0.25 % ...Previous 0.25 % ...Actual 0.25 %

 

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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