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Draghi ECB Comments Made Last Week to Dominate Trade
|Draghi ECB Comments Made Last Week to Dominate Trade|
May 12, 2014 00:30 gmt
JA- Trade. Europe: No Major Data. North America: No Major Data
| EURUSD 1.3745
|| U.S. 2.62% +1bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 139.91
|| Bund 1.46% -1bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6842
|| GILT 2.69% +4bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 101.78
|| JGB 0.61% +1bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JA- Trade
- ItWe saw a rare "game changer" by ECB President Mario draghi in his post-ECB policy decision press conference on Thursday. Some say hos comments were off-handed, but I saw the stilted carefully-selected language of a pre-planned remark. Draghi said that a strong Euro in the context of low CPI and low econ growth is a cause for serious concern. In other words he was warning the markets that the ECB would like to see the EUR trade weaker. When a central banker cites "serious concern", do yourself a favor and pay attention.
- Draghi also provided the markets with some rare forward guidance, saying that the central bank is prepared to take action to boost inflation if action is warranted by economc forecasts due at the June ECB meeting. This sounds to me like the governing council is ready to ease UNLESS those forecasts unexpectedly make the case for higher price levels. We have been warned.
- Two rounds of Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Yellen sent another round of dovish signals to the markets. She expressed her concerns about weak job creation. recall that full-employment is a Fed mandate, She also finally expressed worries about the weak housing market. I have been pointing out that housing data have been lousy since last October.
- Major highlights of the week ahead include the German ZEW Survey and U.S. Retail Sales data on Tuesday. Wednesday key U.K. employment data. The highlight Thursday will be final April HICP data, which could figure into the June ECB decision. On Friday, markets clearly will be focused on U.S. Housing Starts and Permits after Yellen's comments.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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