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Tuesday May 13, 2014 - 10:12:38 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Softer German ZEW Survey attributed to strong Q1


Tue, 13 May 2014 5:26 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Key Chinese data comes in slightly below expectations, renews talk of targeted stimulus measures
- Swedish April CPI data questions whether a July Riksbank rate cut is a slam dunk
- Germany's May ZEW Survey comes in mixed; Economic pace unable to sustain pace of a strong Q1

***Economic Data***
- (CH) China Apr YTD Fixed Urban Assets Y/Y: 17.3% v 17.7%e
- (CH) China Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 11.9% v 12.2%e; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.0% v 12.0%e
- (CH) China Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 8.7% v 8.9%e; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 8.7% v 8.7%e

- (DE) Germany Apr Wholesale Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.7% prior
- (FR) France Mar Current Account Balance: -1.5B v -1.4B prior
- (ES) Spain Mar House transactions Y/Y: +22.8% v -27.6% prior
- (TR) Turkey Mar Current Account Balance: -$3.2B v -$3.3Be
- (HU) Hungary Apr CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.1%e
- (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 33.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 33.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Apr CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e; CPI Level: 313.89 v 313.67e
- (SE) Sweden Apr CPI Underlying (CPIF) M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.4%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Final CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim; CPI Index Ex Tobacco: 107.4 v 107.2 prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6% prelim
- (DE) Germany May ZEW Current Situation Survey: 62.1 v 60.5e; Expectations Survey: 33.1 v 40.0e (lowest since Jan 2013)
- (EU) Euro Zone May ZEW Expectations Survey: 55.2 v 61.2 prior

Fixed Income:
-(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its book to sell 5.0B in new (inaugural) 10-year Inflation-Linked bond
via syndicate; guidance seen at 105bps below Spanish Treasuries with order book over 20B
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.37B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 2% 2024 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.783% v 2.104% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.51B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold 1.2B in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.362% v 0.369% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.03x v 3.88x prior
- Sold 3.31B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.598% v 0.556% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.59x v 1.97x prior
- (NO) Norway sold NOK4.0B in 2024 Bonds; Yield: 2.79%, bid-to-cover: 2.0x
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells 6.25B vs.6.25B indicated in 2017, 2021 BTP bonds
- Sold 4.0B vs. 4.0B indicated in new 1.15% 2017; Avg Yield: 1.07% v 0.93% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.53x v 1.41x prior (Apr 11th 2014 under 1.5% Dec 2016 BTP)
- Sold 2.25B vs. 2.25B indicated in 3.75% 2021 BTP; Avg Yield: 2.29% v 2.44% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.53x v 1.47x prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell 1.0B in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield: 2.13% v 2.45% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.80x v 2.73x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 137.3B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- (EU) ECB allotted 32.3Bin 1-month Tender

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,870, DAX +0.7% at 9,769, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,503, IBEX-35 -0.1% at 10,556, FTSE MIB -0.5% at 21,385, SMI +0.1% at 8,550, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,895]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open higher following positive leads from the US as peripheral indices lag, DAX within reach of fresh record high above 9,800, FTSE 100 hits highest level since Jan 2000, Airbus rises on better than expected earnings, ThyssenKrupp confirms recovery of European steel industry, SocGen raises ROE target, German ZEW data mixed, Corporates continue to tap the bond market following recent ECB meeting

By Sector
- Financials
[LSE LSE.UK -1.5% (speculated acquisition)]
- Industrials [Airbus AIR.FR +4.5% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE +5% (Q1 results above ests, raised outlook)]
- Utilities [E.ON EOAN.DE -1% (Q1 EBITDA below ests)]
- Telecom [Telecom Italia TIT.IT -2% (Q1 net profit below ests)]
- Technology [Agfa Gevaert AGFA.BE -12% (Q1 profits declined y/y, cautious outlook)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Pandora PNDORA.DK +7% (raised outlook), Taylor Wimpey TW.UK +5% (raised margin forecast); Lagardere MMB.FR -2.5% (Q1 LFL sales -5.6%), Paddy Power PAP.UK -3.5% (poor March results), Tui Travel TT.UK -1% (H1 loss widened)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Industrials +1.1%, Consumer Cyclical +0.7%, Technology +0.5%. Basic Materials +0.4%, Financials +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%; Energy -0.7%, Utilities -0.5%, Telecom -0.1%]

Speakers:
- ECB's Hansson
(Estonia) reiterated its forward guidance stance and noted he saw no sign of any quick jump in inflation. EMU region was recovering but unemployment and spare capacity remain headwinds
- BOE's Cunliffe: Planned new global loss-absorbing buffer for banks will be used to make sure only critical operation continue to function if the lender fails
- Sweden Fin Min Borg: Strong SEK currency helping to push domestic inflation lower
- US Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC alternate) repeats speech from May 11th in comments from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Turkey govt relaxes restrictions for corporate cards
- Turkey Deputy PM Babacan: Discipline cannot be compromised for short-term growth
- Poland PM advisor Bielecki: Poland could adopt EUR more quickly if ERM-2 requirement was waived
- Brazil Central Bank's Awazu Pereira commented that the country was more resilient to external shocks and that the global economy was doing better. Brazil adopted preemptive policy before tapering
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco: To keep presence in FX market amid inflows
- Two BOK Dep Gov (Kang Juno and Kang Tae Soo) deny press speculation of planning to resign before term ends
- Australia budget said to disclose A$60B deficit over 4 years
- BOJ concerned that cooler weather from El Nino will curb summer spending
- India Finance Ministry official: Examining fund raising options via special purpose vehicles and perpetual bonds for State-run banks. Financial Sec Gurdial Singh Sandhu added that it might infuse up to INR800B into State-run banks
- US Sec of State Kerry: Concerned about China's aggressive stance in the South China Sea dispute
-US spokesperson: Kerry told China that its actions in South China Sea dispute was provocative
- China Foreign Ministry: Have discussed South China Sea with Sec of State Kerry; urged US to objectively speak and act cautiously
- PBoC statement after meeting 15 banks noted that it looked to prevent mortgage risks. It called for timely approval of qualified home mortgages and appropriately allocated credit resources to satisfy first home buyer demand
- China may soon issue rule related to regulation of interbank business

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD remained steady throughout most of the session but drifted to 1-month lows after a mixed German ZEW Survey. German investor morale plunges to lowest since Jan 2013
Which sent the Euro at test 1.3740. The key support now seen at 1.3690
- The focus remained on Wednesday's release of the BOE quarterly inflation report. UBS analyst noted that any hawkish view on BoE Inflation report was already priced in. GBP/USD was a touch softer in the session at 1.6850.
- The USD/JPY pair was near a 2-week high above 102.30 as the Nikkei225 Index was higher by 2% (following the strength in US equities on Monday)
- The Swedish Apr CPI data came in a touch hotter than expected putting into question a potential July rate cut by the Riksbank. EUR/USD hit 1-month low below the 9.00 level afterwards. SEB analyst still called for two more rate cuts totaling 50bps this year (**Noye would bring Repo rate to 0.25%)

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Reportedly ECB eases some data requirements from banks in order to help them meet the deadline of the AQR
- (IT) Italy Govt recommends confidence vote for labor legislation - Italy press
- (UK) According to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) an earlier than expected rate hike could be needed to keep housing market from overheating - London Telegraph
- (US) San Francisco Fed posts inflation outlook; economy is likely to face low inflation for some years to come
- (US) Cleveland Fed's Pianalto: Low inflation for long periods can be as damaging as high inflation; Steady growth will bring about 2% inflation
-(CN) PBoC said to ask commercial banks to up pace of mortgage lending - financial press
- US Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) threatens to delay confirmation votes for three Fed nominees, unless he is granted a floor vote on an audit the Fed bill
- (CN) US Treasury Sec Lew: US seeks more open, balanced trade and investment ties with China; China should move to more market determined fx rat

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU General Affairs Ministers hold meeting in Brussels
- (PT) Bank of Portugal Data on Banks
- (PT) Bank of Portugal reports Apr ECB financing to Portuguese banks at v 45.0B prior (**Note: March reading was 2-year low and 6th straight monthly decline)
- (RU) Russia Apr Official Reserve Assets: $483.0Be v $486.1B prior
- 05:30 (AU) Australia PM Abbot delivers budget
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Mar Mining Production M/M: -7.7%e v -7.0% prior; Y/Y: -6.2%e v -4.8% prior; Gold Production Y/Y: No est v -3.6% prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month bills )
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 1.0B in 0.75% I/L Apr 2018 Bobl
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell 2.3B in 3-Month and 12-Month Bills

- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Apr Trade Balance: No est v -$1.4B prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.4% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.3%e v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.4% prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Mar Leading Indicators: 100.6 v 100.6 prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Consumer Confidence: No est v 83.1 prior
- 07:00 (UR) EU Commission meets Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk
- 07:30 (US) Apr NFIB Small Business Optimism: 94.5e v 93.4 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:30 (US) Apr Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 1.1% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.6%e v 0.7% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.5%e v 1.0% prior; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.5%e v 0.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Import Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.3%e v -0.6% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Chain Store Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Mar Business Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
-10:00 (ES) Spain Econ Min in Madrid
- 10:30 (US) Fed's Lacker gives opening remarks
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.0B in notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 11:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank Dep Gov
- 12:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with IMF Lagarde
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank President Tombini speaks in London
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (NZ) RBNZ Financial Stability Report
- 17:05 (NZ) RBNZ Governor Wheeler News Conference
- (US) Nebraska Holds Primary Elections
- (US) West Virginia Holds Primary Elections

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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