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Tuesday May 13, 2014 - 15:04:26 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: DJIA and S&P500 Both at Record Highs

Tue, 13 May 2014 10:56 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel Apr Trade Balance: -$1.9B v -$1.2B prior
- (PT) Portugal Apr CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (PT) Portugal Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (EU) OECD Mar Leading Indicators: 100.6 v 100.6 prior
- (EU) ECB drained 144.3B vs. 167.5B target in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP
- (IE) Ireland Apr Consumer Confidence: 87.2 v 83.1 prior; 7-year high
- (RU) Russia Apr Official Reserve Assets: $472.3B v $483.0Be
- (US) Apr NFIB Small Business Optimism: 95.2 v 94.5e
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e May 10th: w/w -0.1%; y/y: +3.9%
- (US) Apr Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.0% v 0.6%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: -0.1% v +0.5%e; Retail Sales Control Group: -0.1% v +0.5%e
- (US) Apr Import Price Index M/M: -0.4% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.3%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e May 10th: +4.2% y/y, May MTD: +1.1% m/m
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 210.4B v 210.3B prior
- (US) Mar Business Inventories: 0.04% v 0.4%e

- The S&P 500 is back above 1,900 for the first time ever this morning while the DJIA remains at all-time intraday highs. Gains in momentum stocks are still being seen, but not quite as strong as during yesterday's session. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.22%, the S&P500 is up 0.28% and the Nasdaq is up 0.22%.

- The US April retail sales report was not impressive and the scant 0.1% gain was well short of expectations. However, the March numbers were revised to 1.5% from 1.1% prior, making the month's advance the biggest gain in the series in four years. February sales were also slightly higher than originally reported, suggesting that the second reading of US Q1 GDP could be revised higher. Also helping to offset the disappointing retail data is the NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index, which jumped to 95.2 in April from 93.4 in March, the first time the series has been at this level since fall 2007. The main contributor to the improved Index came from expected business conditions, suggesting there is real optimism out there among the people who run the bulk of the US economy.

- The Bundesbank responded to reports out overnight, reminding markets that the ECB saying it is ready to take action on monetary policy is nothing new. The earlier reports suggested that the Bundesbank was finally giving a green light to ECB stimulus action in June if 2016 inflation forecasts were lowered. The Bundesbank also said that while inflation forecasts are key, they are not the only benchmark the bank watches. EUR/USD had stabilized around 1.3760 over the weekend and on Monday after Draghi's press conference last week, but tested 1.3700 after the Bundesbank reports. Currently the pair is around 1.3720.

- Shares of DirecTV are giving up gains seen overnight after reports circulated that the company was discussing a merger with AT&T around $100/shr, valuing the deal at $50B. DTV gained a total of approximately 4.5% after the reports but shares are slipping lower.

- Shares of Green Mountain Coffee are up 10% after Coca-Cola disclosed it exercised its option to raise its stake to 16% as of May 10th from the 10.1% stake it took in early February. Note that Coca-Cola has taken stakes in promising beverage firms and later acquired them wholesale, raising hopes this is the plan for GMCR.

- Valeant responded to Allergan's rejection of its $46 billion hostile bid by saying it plans to improve the offer on May 28th during a public webcast. Valeant also noted that it has not held any talks with Allergan as of yet. Shares of both AGN and VRX gained modestly on the report.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 11:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank Dep Gov
- 12:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with IMF Lagarde
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank President Tombini speaks in London
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (NZ) RBNZ Financial Stability Report
- 17:05 (NZ) RBNZ Governor Wheeler News Conference
- (US) Nebraska Holds Primary Elections
- (US) West Virginia Holds Primary Elections


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Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
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Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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