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Wednesday May 14, 2014 - 10:12:29 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets continue to obsess with possible rate action in June; European earnings mixed


Wed, 14 May 2014 5:25 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Puma reported Q1 results weaker y/y, footwear sales -7.1% y/y, apparel +3% y/y; CEO indicated that the company had not been approached about a possible takeover
- China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) warns rising credit risk in real estate sector - financial press
- ECB's Praet (Belgium): Reiterates negative deposit rates are possible part of a combination of measures - financial press
- ICAP traded weaker after FY14 results were impacted by penalties, expect year to remain extremely difficult
- Glaxo being prosecuted in China as part of bribery probe, shares down over 1%
- ECB speak continued to hint of potential action at the June meeting with various options being considered but that conventional means had not been exhausted
- BOE quarterly report should be considerably more upbeat and bring upward GDP and CPI projections while marking a less dovish tone than the previous report in February

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European markets trade mixed after various indices hit multi-year highs on Tuesday's session as ECB officials suggest bar remains high for QE, FTSE 100 lags on ex-dividends, DAX remains below intraday record high, Peripheral indices underperform, German's K+S calls bottom for potash prices, European wind power firms continue to beat expectations (Nordex)

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%, DAX flat at 9,752, FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,869, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,496, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,554, FTSE MIB -0.4% at 21,174, SMI +0.4% at 8,580, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,894]

***By Sector***
- Financials [3i III.UK +3.5% (FY returns rose); UBI UBI.IT -3% (tax probe)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [FLSmidth FLS.DK +5% (Q1 above ests), K+S SDF.DE +2% (Q1 profits above ests); Glencore GLEN.UK -1.5% (ex dividend)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Just Eat JE.UK +7% (broker commentary), Ferragmo SFER.IT +3% (Q1 profits above ests); ITV ITV.UK -5% (cautious outlook for studios unit), Mediaset MS.IT -5% (reported Q1 net loss), Hugo Boss BOS.DE -3% (ex dividend)]
- Consumer Staples [Compass Group CPG.UK +4% (special dividend)]
- Telecom [Numericable NUM.FR +2% (Q1 profits rose y/y); Inmarsat ISAT.UK -1.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Industrials [John Wood Group WG.UK +2% (upbeat outlook)]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE -0.5% (Q1 results below ests)]
- Energy [Nordex NDX1.DE +8% (raised outlook)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Consumer Cyclical +0.6%, Technology 0.5%, Basic Materials +0.2%, Energy +0.1% Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%, Telecom flat, Financials flat; Industrials -0.9%Utilities -0.7%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Numerous ECB speak continued to hint of potential action at the June meeting but Northern members stressing various options being considered but that conventional means had not been exhausted. The EUR/USD held above the pivotal support of 1.3690
- BOE quarterly report should be considerably more upbeat and bring upward GDP and CPI projections while marking a less dovish tone than the previous report in February. Key focus will be on spare capacity (was seen at 1.5% in Feb and thought not to be absorbed for 2-3 years). GBP/USD was slightly softer heading into the report at 1.6820 area (1.7050 remained the pivotal long-term resistance). Market has been building expectations that BOE would begin its tightening cycle in Nov (current BOE view is Q2 2015 and after the May election). The Mar Earnings data came out softer than expected (hinting that slack was not disappearing) and this weighed upon cable ahead of the inflation report
- Germany 10-year gov yield dips below 1.40% for 1-year low

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Apr Final CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (DE) Germany Apr Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (FI) Finland Apr CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2%e
- (FI) Finland Mar Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.9% prelim
- (JP) Japan Apr Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 48.8% v 41.8% prior
- (FR) France Apr CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.9%e; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 126.24 v 126.38e
- (FR) France Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
- (ES) Spain Apr CPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (ES) Spain Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (ES) Spain Apr CPI Core M/M: 1.0% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Final Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: 8.1% v 8.1% prelim
- (EU) ECB 2.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 38.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 33.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.2% v +0.3% prior
- (UK) Apr Jobless Claims Change: -25.1K v -30.0Ke (18 straight months of improvement); Claimant Count Rate: 3.3% 3.3%e (lowest level since Jan 2009)
- (UK) Mar Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.7% v 2.1%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Mar ILO Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.8%e (2nd straight month below the 7.0% BOE Threshold); Employment Change 3M/3M: +283K v +248Ke

- (IT) Italy Mar General Government Debt: 2.120T (record level) v 2.107T prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.9%e
- (CH) Swiss May Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 7.4 v 7.0 prior

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (FI) Finland advance voting in European Parliament Elections
- (CH) Swiss govt holds regular meeting
- (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in Aug 2023 bonds
- 05:30 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Inflation Report
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Apr SACCI Business Confidence: No est v 92.7 prior
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in 0.25% 2016 Schatz
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Mar Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.5% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 9th: No est v +5.3% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.8%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.2% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in Aug 2023 bonds
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron weekly question time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Minutes
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.2%e v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.1% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:30 (US) Apr PPI Final Demand M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Apr Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.6% prior; House Price Index: No est v 160.42 prior
- 10:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at EU Parliamentary Election Rally, Gifhorn
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel gives EU Election campaign speech in Wittenberge
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.35-0.60B in bonds
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-Year Bonds
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Apr International Reserves (ISK): No est v 468B prior
- 13:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble at EU Parliamentary Election rally, Stadthagen
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel gives EU Election campaign speech in Berlin

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


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14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
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23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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