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Friday May 16, 2014 - 10:14:58 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: French telecom names heat up as govt talks about consolidation; Markets look ahead to European parliamentary elections next week

Fri, 16 May 2014 5:24 AM EST

- Greece Fin Ministry recalls bond taxation directive which imposed retroactive capital gains taxes on foreign holders of Greek sovereign bonds
- Sweden FSA official Andersson: Govt should review mortgage rate deductions to address imbalances
- France Econ Min Montebourg: France's telecommunications industry is "in ruins" and one solution is to reduce the number of mobile operators to three from the current four
- India Election results have pro-business party in power as BJP-led NDA (opposition) wins majority India; Sensex turns negative after being up over 6% earlier today on profit taking

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets opened mixed following sharp losses on Thursday's session as bond market volatility continues, Peripheral banks remain heavy, Greek banks track decline in the country's sovereign bonds, Portuguese banks still weighed down by capital raise concerns, DAX capped by ex-dividends (Deutsche Telecom, BMW, Man Se, Fresenius Medical), French telecoms supported by renewed consolidation talk

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,853, DAX flat at 9,656, CAC-40 flat at 4,446, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 10,396, FTSE MIB +0.9% at 20,611 (prior session's underperformer), SMI +0.2% at 8,662, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,868]

***By Sector***
- Financials [Banco Esprito Santo BES.PT -11% (reported net loss, announced capital raise), Deutsche Boerse DB1.DE -4% (ex dividend)]
- Consumer Discretionary [TUI AG TUI1.DE -1% (Q1 sales in line, affirmed outlook); Moncler MONT.IT +3% (Q1 results above ests), Geox GEO.IT +3% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Energy [Lamprell LAM.UK -8% (rights offering)]
- Industrials [Man SE MAN.DE -3% (ex-dividend), BMW BMW.DE -2% (ex-dividend)]
- Telecom [Deutsche Telecom DTE.DE -4% (ex-dividend); French telecoms rose on consolidation speculation (Iliad ILD.FR +6%, Bouygues EN.FR +3%)]
- Healthcare [Fresenius Medical FME.DE -1% (ex dividend)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Wacker Chemie WCH.DE -1.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom -1.4%, Industrials -0.7%, Consumer Cyclical -0.3%, Utilities -0.2%; Energy +0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%,Technology +0.2%, Financials flat]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- EUR/USD was slightly firmer in the session as the pair continued to recover from 3-month lows set on Thursday. The question at this time is where Euro shorts would be re-loaded given the backdrop of a dovish ECB, and softer EU inflation and growth data
- Looking ahead to next week markets will watch for opinion polls ahead of next week's European Parliament elections
- The USD/JPY pair again held the pivotal 101.30 level over the last 24 hours
- Indian rupee currency gained more over 1% as the nation's stock market initial jumped to a record high following the election results. The pro-business party (BJP-led NDA) moved into power after winning a majority in Parliament. USD/INR tested below the 59 handle before consolidating.

***Sovereign Rating Action***
- (BE) Fitch affirms Belgium sovereign rating at AA; Stable Outlook
- (CZ) Fitch Affirms Czech Republic Sovereign Rating at A+; Outlook Stable
- (RO) S&P raises Romania sovereign rating to BBB- (lowest level of investment grade) from BB+; Outlook lowered to Stable from Positive
- (EG) S&P Affirms Egypt B-/B sovereign Ratings; Outlook Stable

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 9th (RUB): 8.15T v 8.17T prior
- (JP) Japan Mar Final Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 7.4% v 7.0% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: +0.4% v -2.6% prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending May 10th: +8.8% v +8.9% prior
- (EU) EU27 Apr New Car Registrations: 4.6% v 10.6% prior; 8th straight monthly rise
- (FR) France Q1 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Wages Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.2% prior
- (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 18.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 17.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 97.0K v 90.6K prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Total Trade Balance: 3.9B v 2.6B prior; Trade Balance EU: 1.2B v 1.3B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 3.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Trade Balance (Seasonally adj): 15.2B v 15.0B prior; Trade Balance NSA: 17.1B v 16.0Be

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (IE) Ireland Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's
- (UR) Russia and Ukraine hold low level talks on energy issues
- 05:30 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Krakow
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Q1 GDP Y/Y: 5.8%e v 5.1% prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Q1 Current Account Balance (MYR): 16.6e v 16.2B prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 6.0Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Economic Activity Index M/M: -0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.1%e v 4.0% prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey TCMB Survey of Expectations
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 9th: No est v $311.9B prior
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.50% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces specific Bonds to sell on Thurs, May 22nd
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:30 (US) Apr Housing Starts: 980Me v 946K prior; Building Permits: 1.010Me v 997K prior (revised from 990K)
- 08:30 (US) Housing Starts Revisions
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Securities Transactions: C$7.0Be v C$6.1B prior
- 09:55 (US) May Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 84.5e v 84.1 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.1B in bonds
- 11:50 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on Monetary Policy in Little Rock, Ark.

- (PT) Portugal formally exits its bailout program




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