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Friday August 12, 2005 - 09:20:56 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• USD remains soft – today’s US trade data will be critical in determining whether the move has further to go.

• The JPY is likely to remain the key outperformer in the short-term.

• Canadian trade data will be important for BoC expectations. Strong export number would leave USD-CAD risk towards 1.18.

Market Outlook

The USD has remained weak overnight and today’s trade data will play a key role in determining whether this extends further into next week. EUR-USD needs to get beyond 1.2500 to keep the move going and if the current correction plays out to the full then 1.2650 is the target. USD sentiment is rapidly deteriorating and all of the old headlines about the current account deficit are starting to reappear in the media (there is no greater determinant of market sentiment than the price action itself). This is why today’s trade data will be crucial. A poor number would play on these developing concerns while a low deficit outcome would help to dispel them. There is an area running from the correction target at 1.2650 up to the previous support and breakout point at 1.2730 and this needs to hold to prevent this current correction turning into a fresh test of the old EURUSD highs. Sellers are likely to reappear ahead of this area and a return to the downside is favoured over the next month or so.

The JPY andGBP continue to outgun the EUR, which reflects the way the market was positioned going into this week. Short positions on GBP and JPY have been seriously undermined this week by events in the UK and Japan, while the spec market had largely squared out already on EUR-USD. This should have further to run in the short-term, with 136.50 being the next trigger point on EUR-JPY. 0.6875 is of similar importance on EUR-GBP. USD-JPY Itself also looks very soft, having shown an inability to bounce at all over the last few days, reflecting the way the short-term market is positioned as well as the step up in real money interest in Japan and a further tipping point would be reached today if 109.50 breaks. This would leave risk to 108.15.

Day Ahead
US – the trade deficit is the main focus today and it comes at a sensitive time for the USD. The number has been stabilising in recent months, although with the US continuing to grow faster than most of its trading partners and oil prices boosting net oil imports, there is a constant risk of a further widening in the deficit. The University of Michigan’s measure of national consumer sentiment is also released and the risk is for a slightly stronger number. However, basic economic trends are well known to the market and it is the trade data that will be the potential market-mover today.

Canada – trade data and more importantly exports will be key for BoC rate expectations. The market is still looking for a September 7 rate hike, although a weak export number today after last week’s softer than expected employment report may raise some question marks about the inevitability of this move. At the very least, it would raise issues about the readiness of the BoC to extend the tightening phase through Q4. However, the data should be fairly solid today and this should support the notion of tightening between now and year-end. A 25bp rate hike is likely at each of the next three meetings. Solid data today would set USD-CAD up nicely for a dip towards 1.18.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Trade balance (Jun) 13.30 -$57.2bn
US Import prices (Jul, nsa) y/y 13.30 +7.0%
US Imp prices ex-petrol (Jul, nsa) y/y 13.30 +2.1%
CA Trade balance (Jun) 13.30 C$4.3bn
CA Exports (Jun) m/m 13.30 -0.5% last
US Michigan sentiment (Aug, prel) 15.00 96.5

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Retail trade (Jun) m/m +1.2% +1.1%
JP GDP (Q2 2nd est) q/q +0.3% +0.5%
JP Ind prod (Jun, final) m/m +1.6% +1.5%
FR GDP (Q2, 1st est) q/q +0.1% +0.2%
FR CPI (Jul, prel) y/y +1.7% +1.9%
FR Non-farm payrolls (Q2, prel) q/q 0.0% +0.1%
ES CPI (Jul) y/y +3.3% +3.1% last
* Consensus unless stated
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163
2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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